“*Today I want to show how a simple math rule that’s able to predict patterns of the universe has also accurately tracked the last 15 years of Bitcoin’s price, and I want to show you what this formula says Bitcoin should be worth 10 years from now*.”
[source](https://cryptoslate.com/is-the-bitcoin-power-law-model-more-realistic-than-stock-to-flow/)

Wow, so esoteric, so much like PlanB's S2F that in my opinion is a total failure. I don't want to blame anyone for my failures in crypto, but to some extent falling for all sorts of bull crap predictions coming from all sorts of crypto gurus I kind of missed huge opportunities during the 2021 bull market.

Astrophysicist Giovani Santasi's BTC Scaling Law who threw that bold quoted statement from the punch line of this post at least has a more earthly prediction for BTC this bull market than PlanB's... Giovani puts BTC at around $200,000 at the end of the bull market which in his opinion should be sometime tin early 2026.

My take is that if you will wait to sell crypto until early 2026, as I did with waiting for PlanB's model predictions to come true chances are you are gonna end up carrying underwater bags... This topic is more suited for a future post though.

What was wrong with the S2F model from PlanB?


![photo_2024-02-02_16-31-56.jpg](https://files.peakd.com/file/peakd-hive/acesontop/EqL9EgN9Wram5parHvqY2jHgcsXTzFD7axis9YEAmyvnTQNKTkcQLdRUkZiU5RWRVvs.jpg)


"*The S2F model gained significant attention, especially during the pandemic, as Bitcoin’s price seemed to follow its predictions. However, this model focuses solely on the supply side, omitting demand, a vital component in price determination. Its predictions, sometimes reaching astronomical figures, have sparked debates in the financial community*."
[source](https://cryptoslate.com/is-the-bitcoin-power-law-model-more-realistic-than-stock-to-flow/)

I understand these guys doing all sorts of calculations and models trying to forecast what Bitcoin will do over time but the problem is that all they're trying to do is to put into their equations a few factors and try to determine an outcome for an asset that has so many other factors affecting its usability and dollar valuation than what they're taking into account.

If a world war starts I doubt BTC will even manage to stay above $1,000 so what's the point of all the work on such models and predictions. I guess other than enetrrtainment and social media recognition these guys will not get anything else. S2F models is already outrageous with its close to $1 million target for BTC at the end of 2025 and thanks to that one PLanB is losing a lot of followers.

If there's one thing I learned in crypto in my six plus years experience is that whatever seems obvious it actually isn't. It seemed obvious for the market to continue to go up back in early 2020 as we were approaching the halving but the damn plandemic came and we had a flash crash first before the rally continued and in my opinion if we didn't had that flash crash BTC would have topped higher.

Then there were continous talks of a recession once the plandemic was over and the next "threat to humanity" came, the war in Ukraine and we still don't have no damn recession. Now military figures in all sorts of countries in Europe are talking about prepping the population for a potential war with Russia. Why would that be the case? Putin is after stopping Ukraine from joining NATO and claiming a bit more of its territories and nothing more.

The pain that no one is talking about and what the autorities are trying to mask by making us fearful about a war with Russia is the societal unrest. Life has become very very expensive. We are witnessing a clear intention of the elites in dividing us and destroying states as they were for centuries and that shall lead to societal unrest and probably violent clashes too.

Look at the immigration problems Europe and America is facing, pay attention to the farmers protesting in Europe and do not forget that we will indeed have a recession once the markets peak. Nobody knows when that will happen but it will. Whenever the masses are expecting anything to happen it won't actually.

Once they will believe there will be a soft landing for the economy, that BTC will go to one million or that a war with Russia is imminent the exact opposite will happen. Being a contrarian is probably the best attitude one could have during the current times we are living. What do you think?


*Thanks for your attention,*
*Adrian*