I have a lot of respect and admiration for the individuals who excel at charting. There's a saying that charts dictate events, not the other way around. I believe that once you master that skill, you're on the path to financial freedom. I haven't delved into learning TA yet.

I'm planning to do that once we enter the bear market when focusing intensely on market moves won't matter as much anymore, but I've always been quite good at reading the psychology of the market. When I think of market psychology, I include myself as well.

I wish I had been more careful in 2019-2021, but we can't turn back time, so I'll focus intensely on this matter for the remainder of the 2024-2025 bull market. Personally, I've stated on my blog several times that I believe this bull market will be shorter-lived than the previous ones.

I can't give you any guarantees in this regard, but it's just a supposition based on the fact that this cycle saw BTC breaking its previous ATH before the halving took place. However, it appears to be taking longer to break out of the previous ATH range than it did in 2021 and 2017.


![photo_2024-06-14_16-14-51.jpg](https://files.peakd.com/file/peakd-hive/acesontop/EoiVkj8okuWcuiBMYnJuQxcy8kYAuUaFkAcWSXmfwjeiAaP7Livtu5RLbgyKzD91up3.jpg)


Nothing is for certain in crypto, but there's one thing you can almost bet on: the most lucrative gains come during the final 20% of any bull market. Whether we're talking about Bitcoin or altcoins, it's during parabolic moves that the most gains are to be made.

Take a look at DOGE, ADA, or any other OG of the crypto market, and you'll see that over the course of a few months, these coins have managed to achieve outstanding rallies. This only happened, though, after a long consolidation/bottoming phase. This is where a lot of investors lose interest, wreck their portfolios by excessive trading, and even exit the market.

We can see this on Hive, too, where some users already consider it a dead project. If you check out Crypto Twitter, you'll notice the same sentiment, especially in the comments sections of posts by influencers.

Based on the sentiment we get from crypto market participants, we're now in a phase of the market similar to the end of 2020 when many were in disbelief because BTC was outperforming most alts, and some were even considering certain coins like DOGE as dead. These are usually the folks who end up buying at the top when euphoria kicks in.

So far, Bitcoin has been the biggest party animal. We've seen some AI coins or meme coins pump heavily here and there, but the broad altcoins market is still bottoming. However, we might be closer to the 20% remaining of this bull market than many believe it.

If BTC enters price discovery alongside ETH, that will be the only signal you need for a proper altcoin season, and once that happens, we'll see coins doing 10X, 50X, or even 100X in a matter of months. The hardest part in making money with crypto isn't actually buying the coins, but rather getting out "safe" from the bottoming phase.

A phase where many prematurely excited investors get lost. Once BTC and ETH enter price discovery, I'll give the market about 6-7 months until it tops out. However, we've been in a bull market since November 2022, but very few are willing to admit it. Growth in crypto is not linear, and that's why mediocre minds don't make much money in this space...

The time to be cautious isn't now. However, once every novice in crypto is getting euphoric and betting everything he has on all sorts of shitcoins, it's time to be cautious once again. Just my two cents.

*Thanks for your attention,*
*Adrian*