As “consolidation” of the November to January crypto market explosion continues; whilst Bitcoin’s fundamental outlook inexorably strengthens; I have stepped up my relentless efforts to fight Bitcoin FUD - particularly, from those attempting to scare HODLers into selling, or dissuade newcomers from investing.
In recent weeks, my principal target has been the King TA FUDster; particularly, his inconsistent commentary, about how Bitcoin is taking over the world, but destined to lose ALL its 2017 price gains. Let alone, the hypocrisy of recommending short positions when he won’t put a dollar of his own money at risk…whilst warning people to “never short Bitcoin, because it’s too dangerous.” Throw in the blatant conflict of interest – of how his business benefits from falling Bitcoin prices; which in turn, yields a relentless level of negativity; and we’re talking about someone who is a significant threat to the Bitcoin community, at a time when positive leadership is sorely needed.
Of all the things he’s recently said, the one that sticks in my mind is his belief Bitcoin will fall to $1,300 (or lower) because the sector needs to be “purged” – as if a falling price of the one cryptocurrency with no material issues will somehow “fix” what’s wrong, and lead to a new era of prosperity. In a nutshell, he’s not only ignoring the FACTS of why Bitcoin rose, but the cardinal rule of investing; i.e., “past is not prologue.” In other words, because Bitcoin crashed nearly 90% in 2014, it doesn’t mean it will do so in 2018; let alone, as the fundamentals then, relative to now, were as starkly different as apples and oranges.
That said, a “purge” of the altcoin sector makes fundamental sense, given that at least 90% have no discernible use cases – other than to leech off of Bitcoin (and Ethereum’s) success, as blatant pump-and-dump money grabs. However, most altcoins already declined 90% from their mid-January highs – and contrary to hard-core Bitcoin Maximalists’ views, which I do not share – not ALL altcoins are worthless. To that end, not only is their extraordinarily strong price action a testament to their resilience; but a strong signal, in my view, that “they”, as a sector, are here to stay. Which, given how many trillions of dollars’ worth of capital is expected to migrate from overvalued, increasingly anachronistic legacy markets as the Digital Age unfolds, would be naïve to believe otherwise.
Yes, there are plenty of “shitcoins” - but plenty of potentially great investments, too…none of which, threaten Bitcoin’s principal uses cases – of being the world’s leading wealth storage asset, and a potential cornerstone of future monetary systems. To that end, I have been very vocal in my view that “Bitcoin Maximalism” is an ambiguous, amorphous term – which in my view, makes most sense when gauging Bitcoin’s reward/risk profile, from an investment standpoint. Clearly, its risk level is far lower than all other cryptos…however, that it doesn’t mean it will outperform every altcoin, even if it reaches its full political, monetary, and social potential.
Personally, I continue to hold a 100% position in Bitcoin, and recommend the same to new investors. However, I don’t think it’s “traitorous” to support other projects – that, in one’s personal opinion, have strong investment merits. Different types of investors have different investment goals…and philosophical beliefs that in many, if not most cases, are not hard-core “Bitcoin Maximalist.”
Like, for instance, a community member getting lots of publicity for his Bitcoin Maximalist book – who, I might add, has not only been obnoxious to anyone disagreeing with his view, but was likely a teenager when I was publicly commentating about the need for sound money. In other words, I have nothing to “defend” about my “Maximalism”; or in his view, lack of it; as I have been one of the most public, and relentless, Bitcoin supporters. No one made him the cryptocurrency God; and no one should tell you how “Maximalist” you should be. That is up to you, after you have done your own, objective due diligence.
Back to the “purge” we supposedly require, I simply do not agree – and as noted above, it has arguably already occurred. As to believe the altcoin sector will simply collapse into nothing; this, from the man who predicted BCash would be zero within days of last August’s hard fork; is at the least, naïve – and at most, irresponsible. Crypto is here to stay, and if you truly believe Bitcoin will be a dominant monetary force, there is no way a significant cryptocurrency community won’t develop around it – even if, as of now, it’s impossible to determine which coins; current, or yet-to-be-launched; will play what roles, and have what values assigned to them by investors.
As always, I’ll conclude by saying that no one has a crystal ball – from the most novice investors, to the top “gurus”; many of whom, have ulterior motives that must be considered. Sure, a “purge”-like collapse could occur; but then again, a late 2017-like explosion could, too…that may or may not be led by altcoins.
As for me, I’m holding a 100% position in Bitcoin, and looking forward to the trading launch of the FREE BRhodium proactive Bitcoin holders like myself have already received. In my view, Bitcoin’s fundamental outlook has never been stronger; and its current valuation – both absolutely, and relatively (as measured by the Mayer Multiple) – highly undervalued; and thus, as unlikely to be “purged” as at any time in its nine-year history.
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