Now to your main reply: 

Logs: we agree that "price likes to obey support and resistance for very sound financial and psychological reasons". I don't see why that can't be expressed as a function on a chart - the underlying reasons are not changing. Putting x, y, and z into the equation still gives you a, b, and c - the fact that it is eight years since you first used the equation doesn't mean that it should have changed. So I'm happy to run the same line - at least during the same phase (exponential growth phase).

The log charts I use are base 10. I use them from a convenience point of view - they come with TradingView and with coinmarketcap.com (I assume theirs are also base 10, it doesn't say so but the curves look like base 10). I have remarked before (I forget in which post, or perhaps it wasn't even on Steemit) that crypto does not fit the log base 10 curve properly - it curves upwards even on the log charts. I have postulated reasons for this (tech adoption not being the only factor affecting price increase). I lack the patience to discover the exact crypto function - it doesn't really matter to me. Perhaps lucky log base 13 😀.

My log growth may stop soon (and head sideways), but I would be surprised if it did so before hitting the 50% adoption mark. I don't expect the charts and trendlines to dictate the price, just to explain it. The underlying market psychology and growth functions dictate the price. I may be "fitting a curve", but for now the facts remain: market cap is climbing and the rate of growth is accelerating. I may be wrong, it may end soon. If that's the case then silly me: I called the whole crypto thing wrong. For me that level of "wrongness" would be most unusual and would indicate fundamental errors in my understanding of how the world works. Not impossible, but unlikely for a self-professed know-it-all like myself. 😏

I will despite the "Crypto is nothing special" statement. Of course "special" is a relative term. I prefer "disruptive". I truly believe that it will revolutionise global wealth exchange, stock markets, businesses, fiat  currencies, logistics and more. It's not just another player entering the arena. It's a group of players that realise that the game is faulty and that the arena is not even necessary. I don't believe that "the rules" necessarily apply to crypto - probably another fundamental difference in our understanding of it.

I still think you're thinking too much of crypto as an asset that needs to be bought, rather than an asset that you can create yourself. If you buy it then you need to buy it from someone. Where would they get it from? The point to a Proof of Work crypto is that you can mine your own. Similarly you get new coins generated by holding Proof of Stake cryptos. No purchasing needed. No fiat has to enter the system. It's useful now as a price benchmark, but is crypto disrupts the way that I think it can, you'll be measuring Dollars in terms of Bitcoin, not the other way round. Already some cryptos are linked to other assets like gold and oil. It's a complex scenario, but I don't see it relying on fiat for its value forever.

I think crypto is still far from "mainstream". Yes a lot of ma & pa investors jumped in, some with stupid amounts of money. Many would have lost and crypto may well be "dead to them". But you only lose money if you sell. those who bought Bitcoin at twice the current price haven't lost anything. Yet. I believe that they will get their money back, and more if they continue to hold. Time will tell if I'm right or not. Time and those damn log trendlines of mine! 😅 I still see a lot of new investors to come! A ***LOT!***

>Crypto is old news, the MSM forgot it, no longer news worthy, no-one is interested anymore. Its back in the hands of a few internet geeks, as it was before the bubble.

I'm going to put that comment down as "opinion". I'm not going to debate it, I'm just going to say that my own opinion is vastly different.

>The entire market cap of crypto is about 1% of a single FIAT currency.

You see a weakness here, I see an opportunity. Look: I'm not a pro. Maybe I *AM* stupidly naive. But I tell you this: with God as my witness, I believe that the institutional money will pour in. And that will draw even more investors. I can give numerous examples of such influxes and investments. This post from three days ago is a good place to start. https://steemit.com/cryptocurrency/@bitbrain/i-don-t-see-the-good-news . I can give you *MANY* more examples if you wish to validate my claims further.

I'm no ATR pro, I learnt it this morning, so I'm not going to comment further on it. I really only learnt enough to answer your original question. I would be shooting above my experience level if I were to delve any deeper into that at this stage. My price curve fitting is very much linked to the many quotes I popped into my post of yesterday, those along the lines of "history never repeats, but it does rhyme". There is no guarantee of future performance, but I also have no reason to expect it to suddenly change. I do have reasons to expect it to follow my trendlines.

At the risk of going off topic: The breakdown of Mr Moore's law has been imminent since I heard of it. Yet it still holds. I do hear you: physics is an unforgiving b.... . We can't break it. I can't answer this question now, it is a debate in itself. I guess it depends on how you apply Moore's Law: Processor speed in hertz(law already broken), number of transistors in a typical processor (law still holding), speed in flops? I don't know. I would be happy to exchange bits for qubits and keep on applying the law (all under the umbrella of "computing"). But yeah, it's not a proper "law" as such. Just a curve like mine. It fits the data. It may break down soon. But I don't see it doing so unexpectedly. 
P.S. I'm pleased to hear that you were a physicist, I *thought* that you were too intelligent for a typical trader! I've loved theoretical physics since I was a kid (though ironically I refuse to do maths). 😃

I'm always open to new information, I *love* learning. So on a personal level I wish to thank you for your continued points of view and explanations thereof. Don't think that just because I disagree with most of them that I don't appreciate them. Indeed, I consider it important to challenge my own views to test if they still hold. Perhaps one day I will change my mind, then your "rantings" will no doubt have contributed to such a change! Unfortunately I don't see either of us altering our fundamental beliefs any time soon, though I will continue to hope that you'll drink the crypto Kool-Aid and join our cult of strange people 🤡 I guess that only time will give us the definitive answer which we seek. I don't know how much longer my trendlines will hold. I don't know if I will have to alter them for future outliers. But I see no reason to deviate from my technology adoption based growth beliefs at this time.

Your friend and nemesis
Bit Brain



If I am wrong - what sort of time frame would you be looking at?