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It seems you can't lose right now! Will it continue? by bitgeek

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· @bitgeek · (edited)
$0.58
It seems you can't lose right now! Will it continue?
In this article I am deviating from my normal statistical analysis and standing back to reflect what has been going on in the crypto world in the last few months.
 
It seems daily double digit returns are something we have become accustomed to in the Crypto world. It also seems that these returns are not restricted to a select few – they are happening a lot and across many digital currencies.  
 
The picture below can be seen as a metaphor for both the celebrations of the performance of crypto currencies but also the spread of the enormous gains that has graced this incredible space.

![IMG_1802.JPG](https://steemitimages.com/DQmXKZDvXrbeSExp92roucC49kgLbtMcZbY6nTTJTKNsDv2/IMG_1802.JPG)

 
Interesting story
 
A couple of months ago (23rd of March to be exact) I met a friend at a conference and he had just received a nice bonus and wanted to invest in something risky but with huge potential for gains. He was prepared to lose it all (well for some!).  
 
At the time, I had done a bit of research into Bitcoin and some of the other currencies and I shared my limited knowledge with him. I suggested putting his money into Augur or Bitcoin or a combination of the two. I was and still am really interested in the Augur project so I was leaning towards this choice. I hadn’t heard of Steemit at the time so it unfortunately it wasn’t an option.
 
I did stress to him that there are enormous risks associated with this type of investment and to take some time to consider his decision.
 
He took a leap of faith and put €10,000 in Augur at a price of $9.27. The price last time I checked was $27.25. I haven’t spoken to him since then but hopefully he has kept onto his investment – which would be to the tune €29,395 right now. Yes, that’s right, a €19,395 profit in 2 months. That’s 64,423% per annum if this growth were to continue!
 
The funny thing about this story is that if he have chosen Bitcoin, he wouldn’t be doing too bad either. He would be looking at a €11,074 profit. Also not bad for a 2 month return period. I know these are highly volatile returns but I can’t but be amazed by it all.
 
And my friend definitely owes me a few pints for the advice!
 
So, this might lead many to believe we are just witnessing an enormous bubble that is on the verge of bursting.
 
I DON’T BELIEVE THIS IS THE CASE.
 
I do accept there are some currencies that are likely to be bubbles but I also believe the market cap of the digital currency market right now is just a molecule in the universe it will become in the near future.
 
Why do I believe this is the case?
 
The digital currency world is completely unknown to most and while there will always be sceptics I feel there will be an exponential rise in the level of investment coming  through the doors of the crypto world. To give you a picture of what I’m talking about. We are here right now:

![IMG_1803.JPG](https://steemitimages.com/DQmew1ghrjMRkoeAhbGARLsDHHL4CoBuG2cCKJS88yzcyv8/IMG_1803.JPG)

Soon I believe we will be here:

![IMG_1804.JPG](https://steemitimages.com/DQmU4ZsrLmMsiTxbBZ9UUCjiwQUxGYX6yfbEdfrApEkfg8r/IMG_1804.JPG)

When the flood gates open and the real tidal wave of liquidity comes this way, there will be bubbles for sure, but the Steemits and Augur’s will skyrocket!   
 
Thank you for reading.
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vote details (40)
@condra ·
I don't hold much at all so I'll be interested to see how this all pans out. Whatever about the big boys, some of the alt coins seem way over valued.
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@davidp ·
I agree....just hope the echanges are putting in overtime to prepare.....they have been having bad performance lately and i think it makes peope nervous.
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@demotruk · (edited)
>So, this might lead many to believe we are just witnessing an enormous bubble that is on the verge of bursting.
>
>I DON’T BELIEVE THIS IS THE CASE.

Why is everyone rationalizing it away? It's *clearly* a bubble, you gave the evidence yourself. Such gains are not sustainable for long.

It may be a temporary bubble and we may go much higher in the long run. But this happens over and over in crypto and in other domains. It always ends the same way.

>The digital currency world is completely unknown to most

That was true in 2011 and 2013 as well. The bubbles still burst. Not everyone was involved in the early 00's DotCom bubble either (unlike say the housing bubble, which spanned the world).

Further, the evidence at present suggests that the crypto bubble is indeed being fueled by ordinary retail investors in Asia, who largely don't really know that much about crypto.

All the signs are there, it's a bubble.

I also think that of the top twenty cryptos, maybe 3-4 at best will be big in 5 years. Most will have turned out to be hype, merely riding the crypto wave.
👍  
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vote details (1)
@bitgeek ·
I'm not looking at any currencies in particular, I'm looking at the whole thing. I'm not saying there won't be large swings down the road but I truly believe this is not a bubble. I do believe it's still relatively unknown to the typical person. Yes, people are aware of bitcoin but I'm
Talking about owners of digital currency.
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@demotruk · (edited)
The question you asked in your title was:

>It seems you can't lose right now! Will it continue?

That will end very soon. Many, many people will lose by buying now and selling in another long bear market. Others will lose by betting on the coins that are just hype, which will be obscure by the next bull market. When everyone is winning, getting rich no matter what coin they invest in, I don't know what word you could use for that other than "bubble".
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@get-baking ·
Thank you for your insights into this world, quite alien to me but great to read of the success of this coin. Anything to do down the banks and greedy bankers. I am all in for profit gained, but using your own money to risk, not others who have no say. X
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@jrhughes ·
This is why I love the concept of Steemit. I'm not very tech savvy, only recently figured out how to mine (for someone completely unfamiliar with coding it's a nearly impenetrable lexicon even on the "for beginners" blogs) and don't want to spend a lot building a rig to mine when I'm not savvy enough to predict what is best *to* mine.

With Steemit, I post about things that interest me, maybe I make a few dollars this week - it's better than I would've gotten posting to Facebook - and if Steem goes the way of BTC, in 5 years my time will seem VERY profitably spent indeed.
👍  
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vote details (1)
@rossenpavlov ·
Really good analogies.
👍  
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@stadsmanneke ·
some pump and dump coins & some pump & stay coins    BUt surely not pump&pump&pump&pump&pump,...........  paper  lol :-)
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@steemitboard ·
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@uanxufree ·
I totally agree with you! for me at the moment the 50% of the top 100 cryptos are in a bubble but the other ones such as bitcoin, Steem, Ether and many others are undervalued.
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