The market has been wild this year, setting new highs, and now being amidst a crash.
I thought it might be good to take a look at some of the trends in place, in order to try to quantify the likelihood and magnitude of another downturn. (This is written from the 1/12/17 perspective of having set a bottom at Bitfinex at 735.26)

The first chart I'd like to show illustrates an ascending line of support, in place for about a year:


![Ascending support line](http://i.imgur.com/Kv72luB.png)


Next I'd like to look at the 15m to show that **while volatility has been high, movement has been constrained to a well-defined range:**


![Descending wedge](http://i.imgur.com/sCnknB2.png)


Eventually, these two patterns must converge.  You can see that the support line will force the descending wedge to terminate 'early', or before its own support and resistance lines converge.  By these lines, that decision can be put off, at maximum, until 1/18 at 14:00 CST.

Typically, Descending Wedges are reversal patterns.

Putting this all together, I speculate that we have one final leg down, constrained by both the wedge and support.
If these hold, then the lowest low would be $686.

What do you think will happen? Are there any technical indicators I've left out that warrant a second look? Comment below - I'll do my best to reply to all comments.  

Follow me if you've found this helpful - with the market heating up I expect to be posting more daily analysis.

Standard disclaimers apply - none of this is trading advice, you are responsible for your own decisions, etc.

-Chainsaw