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Is Bitcoin a Ponzi too? A Simple Explanation about Where Does Money Come From for Dummies by clayop

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· @clayop · (edited)
$1,314.70
Is Bitcoin a Ponzi too? A Simple Explanation about Where Does Money Come From for Dummies
<html>
<h3>The most frequent question raised in Steemit maybe "Where does the money come from?" In this post, I will provide a simple explanation about this topic with comparison to Bitcoin's reward mechanism.</h3>
<p><img src="https://www.steemimg.com/images/2016/08/19/vs55a44.png" width="1329" height="491"/></p>
<h1>Highlights</h1>
<ul>
  <li>Steem's rewards majorly come from STEEM holders by diluting their shares</li>
  <li>In some conditions, Steem Power holders also pay for the rewards via dilution, but the magnitude is much smaller than STEEM's</li>
  <li>Bitcoin also has the similar mechanism but all rewards go to miners, while Steem's rewards go to diverse agents, such as content providers, curators, validators, miners, and liquidity providers.</li>
</ul>
<p><br></p>
<h2>Introduction</h2>
<p>Do you think that Steemit is a ponzi? If you answer yes, you also have to admit that Bitcoin is a ponzi because they have the same reward mechanism fundamentally. Here I will explain why.</p>
<p><br></p>
<h2>Bitcoin Rewards Miners Only</h2>
<p>Let's look at Bitcoin first. The current supply of BTC is about 15.8 millions. Everyday, 12.5*6*24 Bitcoins are created as a mining reward, and about 70 BTC is paid as fees.</p>
<p>Then, what will happen after a year?</p>
<ul>
  <li>Current supply: apprx. 15,820,000 BTC</li>
  <li>Mining reward (estimate, 1 year): 12.5*6*24*365 = apprx 657,000 BTC</li>
  <li>Fees (estimate, 1 year): 70*365 = 25,500 BTC</li>
  <li>New supply after a year: 16,502,550</li>
</ul>
<p><img src="https://www.steemimg.com/images/2016/08/19/btc5a170.png" width="874" height="824"/></p>
<p>The total supply of BTC is increased by 4.3%. Given an assumption that Bitcoin's total market cap is fixed for a year, this increased supply means that BTC price will drop by about 4.3%. An important fact is that this 4.3% goes to miners.</p>
<p><br></p>
<h2>Steem Rewards Contents Creators Too</h2>
<p><br></p>
<p>Steem has similar mechanism with Bitcoin. Steem creates 400 STEEM per block (3 sec) currently and 90% of them goes to Steem Power pool. The details can be found in <a href="https://steem.io/SteemWhitePaper.pdf">Steem Whitepaper</a> page 35. Here I assume that there is no Steem power-up and down for avoiding a complexity. Also, I picked an approximate ratio between Steem Power and Steem (96% vs. 4%).</p>
<ul>
  <li>Current supply: apprx. 134,000,000 STEEM (Steem Power pool: 128,640,000 STEEM / 5,360,000 liquid STEEM)</li>
  <li>Witness/Miner rewards (estimate, 1 year): 1.0476*20*60*24*365 = 11,012,371 STEEM</li>
  <li>Contents creation/Curation rewards (estimate, 1 year): 2*20*60*24*365 = 21,024,000 STEEM</li>
  <li>Liquidity reward (estimate, 1 year): 10,512,000 STEEM</li>
  <li>New supply after a year: 559,483,710 (Steem Power pool: 511,575,339 STEEM / 5,360,000 liquid STEEM)</li>
</ul>
<p><img src="https://www.steemimg.com/images/2016/08/19/steeme7865.png" width="936" height="862"/></p>
<p>We can discover a hyper-inflation, say 317% increase a year, from 134M to 559M. But this is not the point. If the inflation makes no changes in terms of a share (percentage owned), it can be considered as just a splitting your shares. Regarding percentages, we can find STEEM holders have dramatic decrease, from 4.0% to 1.0%. This means that a unit price will dropped down by 1/4 if the market cap is stable. Meanwhile, Steem Power holders have slight decrease from 96.0% to 91.4%, about 4.8% decrease. That is, when price become 1/4, you have about 3.98 times more STEEM because you are holding Steem Power.</p>
<p><br></p>
<p>Interestingly, we can find 3.8% of new shares go to contents creators and curators. <strong>Where does the money come from? </strong>Obviously from <strong>STEEM and Steem Power holders</strong>. This is a kind of redistribution as like Bitcoin, but while Bitcoin only rewards miners, Steem has diverse types of rewards and different dilution rate between STEEM and Steem Power holders.</p>
<p><br></p>
<h2>Conclusion</h2>
<p>Steem is not a ponzi scheme but a novel platform that rewards content creators and curators through redistribution.</p>
</html>
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@cryptohazard ·
A *lot* of stuffs are wrong:
* they market steem as the *next* Reddit but the contents are "not used" outside of steem. So we are far from google linking our articles first
* Incencitive: in the end you post for the (big fat) whales to get paid, not for the readers
* You need to invest first to have voting power and have a real voice
So let's see if I can hack this Pyramid for free :-p
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@innuendo ·
> They market steem as the next Reddit but the contents are "not used" outside of steem. So we are far from google linking our articles first

Check out how much time it took Reddit to reach its current status. Reddit, after 4 months of its existence, was in a much worse position than Steem is now.

> Incencitive: in the end you post for the (big fat) whales to get paid, not for the readers

Incorrect. The (big fat) whales can't be paid unless the the author gets paid. And the author gets paid significantly more (3 times more) than the whales.
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@cryptohazard · (edited)
*edit for incorrect styling*
>Check out how much time it took Reddit to reach its current status. Reddit, after 4 months of its existence, was in a much worse position than Steem is now.

I don't think Reddit had a "working" example to copy. Steem has. So yeah I'm surprised they didn't push it further from the start. But you are right, let's wait and see.

>Incorrect. The (big fat) whales can't be paid unless the the author gets paid. And the author gets paid significantly more (3 times more) than the whales.

My point was that you need votes to get paid, even a tiny amount. So people who want to get rich target the whales. Why not, but that a bad side-effect on the quality and diversity of the subject.
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@dajohns1420 ·
Awesome. I hadn't yet heard anyone make a good argument that it wasn't.
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@dan-bn ·
good calculations, but you don't mentioned steem dollars. How are they included in this scheme ?
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@clayop ·
Since my purpose is to depict a big picture of Steem reward structure and to compare with Bitcoin's, I ignore SBD on purpose.
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@eniac ·
All fine, but you haven't really answered the question: Where does the money come from? The hard dollars? Who pays $$$ and what do they get in return?
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@clayop ·
You should read this post again carefully
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@eniac ·
I have. No mention of who provides actual money, or why. I know the Steem flows freely, and where it comes from. The question is about actual money, I think, and is not answered as far as I can tell.
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@eniac ·
The value of Bitcoin is precisely that it is difficult to make more. Steem comes too easy to be much good as a currency.
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@eniac ·
Perhaps you could point me to the place in the post where it says who buys Steem and why. That is what people mean by "where does the money come from". This post misses the mark on that, completely.
👍  
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vote details (1)
@frick ·
Thank you very much, this article help me to explain at 2 of my friends!!!  And told them to up vote your article😉
👍  
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vote details (1)
@gmalhotra ·
$0.55
All stocks are Ponzi schemes.  Yes sure you are calling a company valuable thus raising it's stock price but, until the next sucker comes along who's willing to pay that price.. it means nothing.  So ultimately all stocks are a Ponzi scheme.
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vote details (12)
@gmalhotra ·
If anyone cares: https://steemit.com/ponzi/@gmalhotra/ponzi-vs-stocks-vs-bitcoin-vs-steem-my-opinions

I wrote that as a full explanation of my views.
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@knircky ·
$210.10
Nope a stock is not a ponzu scheme and steem is not either.

I am sick of people that cannot understand how things calling them Ponzi schemes, so they can sound smarter than they are.
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vote details (16)
@darkstar1o9 · (edited)
@knircky Thank you i'm tired of the nonsense too
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@gmalhotra ·
Ponzi scheme: middle man takes person B's money and gives it to person A and calls it "earnings." Stock market: middle man takes person B's money and gives it to person A and calls it "earnings." Please explain the difference to me.  No hatred here...I wanna learn.
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@shaheer001 · (edited)
absolutely @knircky say right, the people who think or comments that stock or cryptocurrency like bitcoin or Steem is ponzi actually jealous or the people of third party like ponzi,scam and hyip schemes.
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@orly ·
Companies usually have a business model. They produce something that a target market will pay for.

Steem's only source of money flow is the investors themselves, and the invested money is distributed between content creators (and other rewrad earners) cashing out, the founders and early birds cashing out, and yet the investors expect to get at least as much money out of it as they invested (otherwise, what's the point of investing?).

So more money is flowing out of the system than into the system, unless they balance this by constantly increasing the number of new investors.

Unless of course, investors are not in it for the returns. They accept that their investment will be distributed and they will actually lose money. But in this case, steem is either an over-complicated tipping platform (assuming investors are generous like that), or a glorified advertising platform (assuming investors are not just tipping out of generosity).
👍  , , , ,
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vote details (5)
@dantheman ·
Steem has a business model.  Just like Bitcoin.
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@eniac ·
@orly has it nailed, I think. Steem can only have value if people buy it. It cannot have value from being handed out for posting, curating, mining, etc. In the long run (other than speculation), the only reason people would buy Steem is so they can distribute them amongst content creators. This amounts to paid speech, aka advertising.
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@penguinpablo ·
$0.11
A stock has real value due to the earnings of the company. As a stock holder you hold a real part of the company. You share in its profits through dividend or stock equity growth. In no way is this a ponzi scheme.
👍  , ,
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vote details (3)
@gmalhotra · (edited)
I agree that when a stock pays dividends it's not a ponzi scheme because you are getting a cut from the companies profits.  But for"non-dividend" in the so called "growth stocks" the money comes from other people.  Yes there might be a product that company is making but ultimately the "growth stock" is growing because someone other than the company is willing to give you money for it because they expect someone else to come along and pay them more ie ponzi.

I have had this conversation with a lot of "financial people" who always seem to get annoyed and state..."but the stock is growing because the company is doing well." I would buy that idea only if the price of a stock was directly tied to its companies profits.  Yes for the most part this happens but enough times in history (Enron?) this has not been the case. 

This "money being handed down... In the hopes of ever increasing 'value'" is the same thing that happens with every cryptocurrency (bitcoin, litecoin, ethereum etc.) before steem.  I think people musunderstood my point...I am in no way talking about steemit.  Here the investors money is used to turn writers/curators/users into investors themselves.  It's an amazing take on the entire situation.  But one that without new "real money" (read fiat) will continue to lose value.

I guess my point was just create a dialog around ponzi **vs** "growth non-dividend stocks"/bitcoin **vs** steemit 

In no way did I mean to offend anyone. 

*Full disclosure I own "positions" on bitcoin, ethereum, lisk, dash and a few others...So I have definitely bought into the scheme!*
👍  
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vote details (1)
@valtr ·
But there are some people who simply hate capital market and do not distinguish.
It is an attitude, nothing reasonable and it can not be changed.
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@smooth ·
Upvoted solely because I disagree with whoever flagged your post and wanted to balance that. I don't agree with it or think it adds much value.
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@good-karma ·
Visuals help a lot in terms of what we should see in future. I think base of Steem Power holders will increase over time, because more people want to hold power and have ability to have weight on their votes.
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@gphx · (edited)
$12.19
To truly understand finance realize EVERYTHING is a Ponzi scheme. Social Security is a Ponzi scheme. Benefits are currently being paid by issuing debt and selling it to other countries. The payouts currently available to retirees won't be available to future ones. They'll be too busy paying back the debt. 

The dollar is a Ponzi having lost 98% of its value in the past 100 years while effectively stealing the value of saver's deposits by inflation along the way.

Everything is a Ponzi it's just that some Ponzi's are 'official' and universally accepted and some are not. Not to say that's a bad thing just that it needs to be recognized to be profitably utilized. 

If the dollar is a Ponzi and Steem is pegged to the dollar there's no way Steem couldn't be a Ponzi as well. Again, not saying that's good or bad, just pointing out that's the way things work. One could even say the crashing of the housing market or something similar is a generational Ponzi collapsing. Our economic system runs and reloads Ponzi schemes continuously by its very design.
👍  , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
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vote details (19)
@matherly · (edited)
I see your point, but I would avoid extrapolating the term ponzi to include all of finance.
A true ponzi isn't sustainable from the get-go. And you need to ante up cash to get in.
EVERYBODY I KNOW said BTC was a ponzi. I'd ask them, can you explain what a ponzi is?
THEY COULD NOT.  It was just the easy common thing to say to appear knowledgeable.
Cryptos are all making money from thin air.  Some create value better than others.
Like the Fed, dollars from nothing. 
Doesn't mean either is a ponzi.  Social Security? DIFFERENT STORY!! Definitely a ponzi.
I remember a 'debate' I was having with Tone Vays about steem in the YT comments section of the World Crypto Network.  I said cryptos all create money from thin air, from nothing. He said that was ridiculous! BTC is given value from the electricity used to produce it.  
My response was, so with no exchanges in operation BTC would be worth almost $600 today... because.... electricity? Not expanding the user base? As demand for BTC increases, price increases. Duh. 
If demand collapsed tomorrow, the BTC price would plummet down to under $20. Eventually $0.05.
And the exchanges play AN ENORMOUS ROLE is giving value.
His reply was "ok".
👍  , , ,
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vote details (4)
@gphx ·
What gives the US dollar value? Wood pulp? The ability to print more? What gives the USD value is the same thing that gives anything else financial value, perception. The government being able to print more dollars at will is a negative, a debasement of the currency. Cryptocurrencies with limits on how much can be produced don't have this problem. Ironically you've done a good job of describing some of the problems inherent to fiat currencies which some have turned to cryptos to avoid.
👍  , ,
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vote details (3)
@oululahti ·
Well said!
👍  ,
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vote details (2)
@herzmeister ·
All fine, but the question is about long-term sustainability.

I'm no economist, but I feel that the fixed rate of dilution/inflation and interest rates in the steem system is a mistake. They must float freely according to current market conditions.

Also the prominent "Buy Steem Power" button on the front page looks desperate, feeding the impression of depending on continuous outside investments to keep the "ponzi" going, and should be removed.
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vote details (3)
@clayop ·
While inflation rate of STEEM is fixed at 100%, the number for Steem Power varies.
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@dantheman ·
Steem dollar rate varies too.
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@darkstar1o9 ·
Eh no one needs your money or anyone else's money and you just sound very ignorant.
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@innuendo ·
I agree. Having the "Buy Steem Power" button is a very bad idea. It achieves nothing, yet gives the wrong impression.
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@matteo2016 ·
I agree
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@icecreamyolo ·
At the steem launch the founders mined the supply and prevented people from mining by not providing binarys that work. SCAM
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@jay4u ·
Thanks to good analysis and useful information for the steemit.
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@juvyjabian ·
This is the result of those great minds that created the platform.
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@linkback-bot-v0 ·
<div>  <p>  This post has been linked to from another place on Steem.  </p>  <ul>        <li>      <a href="https://steemit.com/kr/@woo7739/8-20160824-steemit-digest-korean-language"> #8. 20160824 Steemit Digest (Korean Language) </a>      by      <a href="https://steemit.com/@woo7739">  @woo7739 </a>     </li>        <li>      <a href="https://steemit.com/ponzi/@gmalhotra/2aqyhg-ponzi-vs-stocks-vs-bitcoin-vs-steem-my-opinions"> Ponzi vs stocks vs bitcoin vs steem... My opinions. </a>      by      <a href="https://steemit.com/@gmalhotra">  @gmalhotra </a>     </li>        <li>      <a href="https://steemit.com/kr/@woo7739/7-20160822-steemit-digest-korean-language"> #7. 20160822 steemit digest (korean language) </a>      by      <a href="https://steemit.com/@woo7739">  @woo7739 </a>     </li>        <li>      <a href="https://steemit.com/ponzi/@gmalhotra/ponzi-vs-stocks-vs-bitcoin-vs-steem-my-opinions"> Ponzi vs stocks vs bitcoin vs steem... My opinions. </a>      by      <a href="https://steemit.com/@gmalhotra">  @gmalhotra </a>     </li>      </ul>  <p> Learn more about  <a href="https://steemit.com/steem/@ontofractal/steem-linkback-bot-v0-3-released">    linkback bot v0.3</a>   </p>   <p>Upvote if you want the bot to continue posting linkbacks for your posts. Flag if otherwise.   Built by @ontofractal</p></div>
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@merej99 ·
I definitely know that Steemit is not a ponzi scheme.  After reading the white papers I felt assured that I'd finally found a forum where I could write what I want to write, and find a great group of people that I could get to know and learn from.  MENTORS EVERYWHERE!
And as I learn more, I get to mentor those who come after me!  How satisfying is that?  
It's the first place that I've seen for content creators where they have a sustainability plan.  I'm just wondering when they're going to lose the BETA part of it. 

As for your article @clayop - there is so much information here that I don't understand. But I'm learning.  Thank you for putting in the time to teach and mentor us.
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@mjmj · (edited)
Thanks for your story. But are you sure you are correct about the following?

"Meanwhile, Steem Power holders have slight decrease from 96.0% to 91.4%, about 4.8% decrease. That is, when price become 1/4, you have about 3.98 times more STEEM because you are holding Steem Power."

I assume you mean with "when price become 1/4" it is due to inflation. That will happen after 2 years. If inflation is 100% per year.

If 10% all of new Steem Power goes to content creators and curators and price goes 1/4 (let's say 2 years) because of the inflation I calculate the following:

Let's begin with 10 SP for user X and a total supply of 100 STEEM.

Beginning, day 0: 10 SP
At day 0 of year 1: 19 SP
At day 0 of year 2: 36,1 SP

If the total supply was at the beginning 100 STEEM, after 4 years it will be 100 x 2 x 2 =  400 STEEM

In the beginning user X had 10% of all STEEM (10 out of 100), after 2 years 9,02% (36,1 out of 400). That is 3,6 times more Steem, but user X loses  almost 10% of wealth in 2 years.

So basicly: if you buy Steem Power and only hold and the market cap is not rising you lose 5% of your wealth every year.

Or maybe I'm wrong, but please help me out in that case. :)
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@clayop ·
Since this is the first year and we have a small amount of supply now.
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@nathanbrown ·
I think this explanation is missing something because you don't analyze SBD in this. No one holds steem. People only hold SBD and SP. Where does SBD factor into your analysis?
👍  
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@clayop ·
True. The main reason is that SBD makes it complicated then hard to deliver my focal point-where does money come from. I will deal with it in the future.
👍  
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@nathanbrown ·
Yes, SBD makes it complicated, but it is the core of the issue. The claim is SBD is pegged to the dollar because it is backed my Steem such that more Steem can be printed to back SBD as needed. This seems to me to provide a mechanism that enables huge inflationary pressure in a financial instrument that can be liquidated quickly, causing a problem if there isn't enough demand for SP.
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@davidrobison ·
"No one holds steem"

Lots of liquid steem is being held, currently  there's 5.31 million of them which are unvested.
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@nathanbrown ·
I was speaking in hyperbole. 5.31 million is a very small portion of total Steem.
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@neofender ·
Very cool just like our US dollar hyperinflate that sucker to pay debts... works well
👍  ,
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vote details (2)
@profitgenerator ·
Very informative article.

All value comes from demand, bitcoin and steem would be worth nothing if people would not like it.

Steemit is growing rapidly, both in userbase and in the number of high profile people joining us. People will buy Steem in expectation of the rise of value of the network. And not just Steemit, we could have many other exciting things on the Steem blockchain. 

For example a market:
https://steemmarket.sharetribe.com/
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@rangertx ·
nice explanation of how Steem works.
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@rawnetics ·
Great explanation. Makes sense to me! Cheers!
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@royalmacro ·
both Bitcoin & Steem are neither PONZI nor Scam !!!
👍  
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@sagar ·
at least Bitcoin is limited to 21 million BTC.
where Steem is limitless.
so the value will be decreases in half per year because of 100% inflation.
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@clayop ·
It's fundamentally a matter of the magnitude of dilution. When all Bitcoin is released, the dilution rate will be 0 for holders but Bitcoin users still pay to miners (= redistribution).
STEEM has much higher dilution rate than Bitcoin, but Steem Power has similar numbers to Bitcoin or sometimes Steem Power holders can additional gains (when Steem Power pool share is below 90%). That is, with halved value of a unit of STEEM, Steem Power holders will have around doubled amount of STEEM so that the inflation is offset.
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@profitgenerator ·
Not to mention the demand for Steem will pretty much grow as the network effect is stronger here. We have high profile people constantly joining us, together with many youtube stars and bloggers.

The demand for Steem in my opinion will only rise, and with this pace we will become a rival to existing social media giants pretty soon.
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@darkstar1o9 ·
I don't think we should make up these false economic parallels it's not the same thing, and many factors are involved. People keep regarding the developers as if their politicians or something when they're just normal business people using a product.
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@satoshifpv ·
Your article is completely ridiculous... The main problem with this platform is the inflation rate of SteemPower.  There are 100M steempower today.  In 10years at the current inflation rate there will be 100Billion SteemPower and in another 10years there will be over 100 Trillion SteemPower....

You do the math.
👍  ,
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vote details (2)
@dantheman ·
You do the math, your numbers are wrong.
👍  
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@satoshifpv ·
If you double something every year how much will you have in 10years ? 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wheat_and_chessboard_problem
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@satoshifpv ·
You are right!

At 90% yearly inflation assuming 100M SteemPower [using the formula to calculate annual growth](http://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/cagr.asp)

The total SteemPower in 10years is 32,268,769,777
And 10 years after that the correct number is: 19,784,196,556,603
👍  , ,
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vote details (3)
@shaheer001 · (edited)
I have understand all you have described here very well but one question in my mind still exist i don't say Bitcoin or Steem or any other crypto currency  is ponzi and who say that Steem is like ponzi  are actually don't aware or jealous from Steem or Bitcoin, but in start  or in beginning any crypto currency suppose like STEEM who are or who will be the STEEM holders ?
👍  
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@thebeachedwhale ·
Steemit is an elegant design.
👍  
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@matteo2016 ·
By logo, pagination, or concept?!
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@thebeachedwhale ·
Yes
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@thebuzzard ·
I agree! Good Job!
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@tomz ·
For any currency or money there is a universal truth. They only have value because people think it has value. Even government backed currencies eventually have to hold to this truism.

Bitcoin has its inflation scheme (aka block-reward) system set in such a way that early adopters are punished, causing the value of the coin to not grow exponentially. With the vast majority of the coins having been mined that will ever be mined, this no longer applies.

Steem doesn't stop charging holders, though. The inflation isn't there to "kickstart" the currency, it is a loop in and of itself.   Not the same thing.  
In Steep the holders see their value diluted so new content creators can get paid. And in exchange for them holding they get voting power.

I would agree that Ponzi isn't appropriate in the original sense for either.

What Steem does is it creates a platform where people with more holdings can decide what others read by up/down voting. 

I'm still on the fence if that is a good thing.
👍  
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vote details (1)
@tradz ·
This system we are living in Period! is a Ponzi scheme.  This world was  false since the existence of humankind. What do you think,  I mean it's ran by imperfection!  Digital currencies is a blessing to have yes indeed!
👍  
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@travelista ·
Good explanation of steem and how it works! Thank you for sharing!
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@yj-kim ·
All result wil be tell u from market but  in few month , i wil buy after lunch of akasha.
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