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Kosovo and Serbia don't really get on. Relations between the two countries have been tense since Kosovo unilaterally declared independence in 2008. But it looked like things were on the up when in March they signed the Ohrid Agreement, which promised to normalize relations. Unfortunately, in the months since, any optimism has evaporated. Both sides have since ditched the deal and violence broke out between ethnic Serbs and NATO peacekeeping troops in northern Kosovo earlier this week after the Kosovo government tried to install ethnic Albanian mayors in Serb majority provinces. The violence was the worst in at least a decade, and the bellicose reaction by both Serbia and Kosovo doesn't bode well. So in this article, we're going to look at how relations have deteriorated recently this weeks violence and whether this could escalate further.
Let's start with a bit of context: Kosovo and Serbia were both part of Yugoslavia until the late 1990s when during the Kosovo war NATO ended up intervening decisively in favour of Kosovan separatists despite never receiving authorisation from the UN. And Milosevic eventually agreed to withdraw all federal forces for Kosovo. The war ended with Kosovo being placed under UN supervision, and in February 2008, Kosovo unilaterally declared independence from Serbia. The declaration was illegal under Serbian law, but the International Court of Justice advised that it was not a violation of international law, and the Republic of Kosovo was subsequently recognised by a majority of European Union countries and the United States. Since then, relations have been about as tense as you'd expect. While it might have de facto autonomy, Serbia doesn't recognize Kosovo's sovereignty and ethnic Serbs living in Kosovo, who represent about 8% of the Kosovo population and for the most part don't recognize Kosovo as a sovereign state. Regularly protest efforts by Kosovan authorities to assert their jurisdiction in the region. This is what happened late last year when Kosovan authorities tried to force ethnic Serbs living in Kosovo to use Kosovo license plates, provoking a violent reaction from Serbs in the region and intervention by the US and EU.
There was a moment of optimism in March when the two sides finally agreed to what's become known as the Ohrid Deal. The Ohrid deal named after the town in which it was signed and brokered by the EU, was basically a quid pro quo. While it wouldn't explicitly recognize Kosovo's sovereignty, Serbia agreed to let Kosovo apply to international organizations and enforce its license plate law on the condition that Kosovo agreed to, quote, ensure a appropriate level of self-management for the Serbian community in Kosovo. In practice, this required Kosovo to create a community of Serb municipalities, a semi-autonomous association of the ten Serb majority municipalities in Kosovo with control over certain policy areas that Kosovo actually already agreed to in 2013. However, while both sides agreed to the deal in principle, neither side actually signed the deal. And after a furious reaction from the Serbian public, Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic quickly distanced himself from the deal, insisting that he'd never implement it in its current form. Then at a summit in Brussels in early May, Kosovo's Prime Minister Albin Kurti also backtracked on the deal, insisting that the community of Serb municipalities should be, quote, non-territorial and under strict oversight from Pristina, which didn't go down well with Vucic.
Clearly, relations had deteriorated from their march high and tensions between ethnic Serbs in Kosovo and the Kosovo authorities hit a new high over the weekend when Kosovo police entered Serb majority areas to install their new mayors. Basically, during the license plate dispute last year, thousands of civil servants in ethnic Serb provinces quit their jobs in protest at the law. Kosovo then scheduled new elections for the end of April. But Serbs in Kosovo said they'd boycott the elections unless Kosovo created the Association of Serb Municipalities as promised. Kosovo refused and the Serbs boycotted the elections. Turnout came in at just 3.5%. But because the only people voting were ethnic Albanians, the elected mayors and assemblies were all ethnic Albanian. Unsurprisingly, this didn't go down well with the ethnic Serbs living in the area. And when the new mayors tried to take their seats on Friday last week, they were met with Serb led protests outside the relevant municipal buildings. Tensions flared over the weekend after Kosovo police started taking down Serbian flags on the municipal buildings and replacing them with Kosovo ones. And violence finally erupted on Monday when crowds of ethnic Serbs gathered around the buildings to protest the Kosovo police presence in the region and these new ethnic Albanian mayors.
Nato forces were deployed as peacekeepers, but for obvious historical reasons, the Serbs perceived them as being pro Kosovo, and a few hours of stand off inevitably ended in violence. In the end, 30 NATO troops were injured, including three with gunshot wounds and 50 protesters were injured, according to Serbian media. Now, this might not sound all that dramatic. After all, Kosovo and Serbia are always at each other's throats. But it's the worst violence we've seen in Kosovo for years. Not only that, but it's the first time Serbia has properly clashed with NATO. Forces in Kosovo since probably 2011. And even then, only a handful of people were injured. The bellicose reaction from Vukic and Kurti suggests that things are unlikely to get better any time soon. Vukic, who's currently facing a series of political crises at home, responded by placing Serbia's military on their highest readiness and holding meetings with the Chinese and Russian ambassadors who both criticized NATO for provoking the violence. For his part, Kurti refused to withdraw Kosovo security forces from the municipal buildings, instead setting up fortifications around them and claimed that the violence was organized by the Serbian government. This is despite the fact that the US Macron and the EU Special Representative for the region have all blamed the violence on Kurti and his decision to send the Kosovo police into the area late last week.
So you get the idea. Tensions really have hit a new high and there's little prospect for de-escalation. So does this mean we should expect a full blown conflict, a war between Serbia and Kosovo? Well, no, not for the moment. In reaction to the violence, NATO announced that they'd be deploying an extra 700 troops to the region, bringing the total number to about 4500. And this should be enough to keep the peace. Nonetheless, we really do need to stress that this is the worst violence we've seen in Kosovo for years. And even if it's not likely, this is the closest the two sides have been to a full blown conflict in at least a decade.
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