I have been keeping an eye on the Polar Silk Road or the Northern Sea Route as it is kind of crazy that it is even a viable option. Russia is desperate to make this happen and setting targets when you are nowhere near ready is reckless. Russia talking about an all year round transit by 2022/23 is just that as they don't have a fleet capable of keeping it open. They are reliant on weather conditions being favorable which is a gamble ship operators would have to decide on.

<center><img src="https://i.imgur.com/38HEeHS.jpg"/></center>

[source](https://twitter.com/grand_solar/status/1460288326062297088)

To get a clear understanding of this the red part is a no go zone as that is mutli year ice being in excess of 2 m thick. The green is one year old ice being in the region of 70cm thick and the pink or magenta is anywhere from 20cm to 30cm thick currently. The pink bits is what they are trying to navigate and the Russians say the weather has caught everyone by surprise. This is the risk you pay for rolling the dice as we are in November and not June.
<center><img src="https://i.imgur.com/6jt96RP.png"/></center>

[source](https://twitter.com/AkerArctic/status/1459595668637499394/photo/1)

**This ship is a grade IC meaning she is capable of travelling though light icy conditions along with an ice breaker. This ore carrier is on route to China and cannot afford to get stuck for too long.**

20 ships stuck currently with help expected to arrive once the Nuclear ice Breaker has taken the other 5 ships it freed last week through. The 3 weeks shortening of the trip by taking this short cut does not look that clever currently as one ship has been zig zagging for weeks and is already 10 days over it's allotted time frame set by Russia. Every vessel has to be granted permission to travel through this route and are allotted x amount of days to achieve this. Russia has to help whoever if they want to be seen as a  credible option in the eyes of the shipping world. This is critical for them now as this could blow up in their faces very quickly.
<center><img src="https://i.imgur.com/z9bENwU.jpg"/></center>

[source](https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/arctic/2021/11/two-icebreakers-are-way-rescue-ice-locked-ships-northern-sea-route)

These ships are ice class vessels yet still suffering delays with the majority according to todays news are 10 days behind their schedule. One vessel was meant to be docking in Rotterdam on the 1st of November and will be docking tomorrow in Germany instead, nearly 3 weeks overdue and still a fair distance to travel to it's final destination.

Russia offering subsidies or free passage won't mean a thing if these ships are stranded until spring. This has happened before with ships port bound not being able to move to their destinations trapped by the ice. I don't think it will be this drastic, but delays are inevitable as the freeze continues.  

I do understand the urgency behind Russia wanting the route open but one has also got to be realistic at the same time. Russia is sitting on the largest deposits of Natural Gas in the world and that is the main diving force behind this madness. Having the route open 365 days allows them to ship worldwide and that is what they are after. The shipping route has to work or their plans will fail. 

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