That was quick! by cryptographic

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trading · @cryptographic · Dec 22 '17 (edited)

$35.84

That was quick!

Less than 3 weeks after ripping through [my revised $11,700 target](https://steemit.com/trading/@cryptographic/revised-bitcoin-target) and rocketing up to $17,000 in less than 3 days, Bitcoin has dropped back down to approximately that same level in just as dramatic fashion. 

![BTC22112017.jpg](https://steemitimages.com/DQmSvqcPYuxKgeVMxME6YeaNCnjLz9zFrbZ1opNqmQz17nr/BTC22112017.jpg)

While not conforming exactly to idealized blow-off top criteria, I’d say that this was just about as close as we might ever get, especially considering the huge coordinated effort made to distribute as much BTC as possible at nose bleed levels.

I think we've got one for the record books that exceeded almost everyone’s wildest expectations, leaving a “5th wave” on the charts that even Elliott Wave practitioners had trouble believing could happen! [Remember when $12,500 was seen as being a bit too much?](https://steemit.com/trading/@cryptographic/bitcoin-elliott-wave-count)

The truth be said, we saw this coming from a long ways away. I started talking about the possibility of a blow-off top 2 months ago [here](https://steemit.com/trading/@cryptographic/what-s-a-blow-off-top) and followed the progress along the way, from early [reversals](https://steemit.com/trading/@cryptographic/bitcoin-taken-out-to-the-woodshed) right into the final [climax moves](https://steemit.com/trading/@cryptographic/meanwhile-back-at-the-ranch) with lots of interesting stuff in between.

Nothing is straight line in its development and in spite of the head fakes and zigzags, I’d say we did fairly well with our navigation through this exceptional time for BTC – we need to pat ourselves on the back for our collaborative efforts to make sure we all had the necessary information with which to adequately protect our investments, and, most importantly, not be boondoggled into buying exorbitantly high!

Indeed, not bad at all, especially when taking into account that while cautioning about the Bitcoin bubble, we weren’t at all forgetful of a couple of long term winners like [STEEM](https://steemit.com/steem/@cryptographic/steem-is-under-clear-accumulation) and [BTS](https://steemit.com/bitshares/@cryptographic/bitshares-moving-higher) that were being accumulated at bargain basement prices, and whose phenomenal gains are still mostly intact – there’s no comparing a 300% or 500% gain (from the time of those writings) with a rapidly evaporating 50% gain (as of now). Obviously not perfect, but, hey, I’ll take it! 

No, I didn’t expect the bottom to drop out so quickly – thought we had another day or two and not just a couple of hours – but that’s how these things work. Now everyone will start talking about BTFD and the great opportunity to “get on board” BTC, but I think we’ve clearly moved into a bear market where rallies are to be sold (unless you are a long term holder - but be sure about one thing: there will be big winners and big losers in coming months and years, so be sure to pick your long term holds well). There will be rallies: watch out for the Chicago boys, for example, to jump on the $10,000 level once we get there – it’s a big psychological number and the 50% retrace of the entire move from 2015 lows – but I think that all the coming talk about getting back to new all time highs will amount to a lot of hot air, and unfortunately not enough to blow the bubble up again.

A little unexpected, but not surprising at all.

___

Disclaimer: As always, please remember that these are just my personal reflections on crypto auction market activity and that this is by no means investment or trading advice. Do you own research, and always be sure to keep in mind that I could be wrong!


___

<center>Please leave your comments, input, questions, etc., below! </center>
<center>Your support is much appreciated. If you like this post, please Upvote.
</center>

@cryptographic

👍 cryptographic, buildawhale, appreciator, upmyvote, teamsteem, booster, boomerang, richard-921, taskmaster4450, gold84, opaulo, sevenseals, luckyluk, sandra, steembusiness, pnc, bitcoiner, crypto-wisdom, berkah, hitmeasap, anonimnotoriu, sthitaprajna, shivohum2015, cranium, mywhale, greenstar, anikearn, killerkuasha, undieable, oldbutgold, tmdhml, steemwija, blazing, robert31, swissman, mikeflow, steempaper, kivsha, njokuoluchukwu, faissalchahid, theguruasia, lamech-m, quinnpeterson, dini1, steem-ripon, imamalkimas, arizonaleather, bumpkindaknight, memoselfneye, smokebeforefire, belowthebelt, bitmesh, bakedbaklava, freeclickbake, obidensqew, nappyhead, nottoday, laythepipe, writeoffthebat, meetiebone, fruitloop, twilightzone, alphabetsoup, texasleather.com, and 73 others

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@anikearn · Dec 22 '17

$1.54

You said the truth that is a little unexpected, but not all surprising. It is a good thing to say that the new all-time high return will be a lot of hot air, and unfortunately the bubble blow again is not enough.

Can I resteem this post sir

👍 cryptographic, anikearn, newbussines

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@cryptographic · Dec 22 '17

You sure may resteem it if you like. There won't be any complaints on my part! Thanks.

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@anikearn · Dec 22 '17

Your maximum post is very good and important so i resteem your post sir

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@appreciator · Dec 22 '17

<p>This post has received gratitude of 0.61 % from @appreciator thanks to: @cryptographic.</p>

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@blazing · Dec 22 '17

$1.57

hehe bitcoin didn't listened you finally its coming back at your prediction ;)

👍 cryptographic

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@boomerang · Dec 22 '17

This post has received a 4.59 % upvote from @boomerang thanks to: @cryptographic<br><br>@boomerang distributes 100% of the SBD and up to 80% of the Curation Rewards to STEEM POWER Delegators. If you want to bid for votes or want to delegate SP please read <a href="https://steemit.com/steemit/@boomerang/boomerang-a-new-steemit-bid-bot-for-all-steemians-whitepaper">the @boomerang whitepaper</a>.

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@booster · Dec 22 '17

<p>This post has received a 1.70 % upvote from @booster thanks to: @cryptographic.</p>

👍 undieable

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@buildawhale · Dec 22 '17

<p>This post has received a 0.55 % upvote from @buildawhale thanks to: @cryptographic.
Send at least 1 SBD to @buildawhale with a post link in the memo field for a portion of the next vote.</p>

<p>To support our daily curation initiative, please vote on my owner, @themarkymark, as a <a href="https://steemit.com/witness-category/@themarkymark/witness-themarkymark">Steem Witness</a></p>

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@cranium · Dec 22 '17

**I hope that STEEM does not expect the same fate. Good luck to you and good.**
>Надеюсь, что STEEM не ждет та же участь. Удачи Вам и добра.

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@crypto-wisdom · Dec 22 '17

Today;s crash of bitcoin is really scary, the way its bleeding its difficult to take a position right now.

Can you tell me what next in bitcoin now. Is it right time to but or wait and watch ??

Will be waiting for your reply.

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@cryptographic · Dec 22 '17

$6.76

I can't see into the future so I won't be able to help you with that, but I can recommend that you first focus strongly on risk management and take your time. Saw someone say this somewhere else today: 
>It's always better to miss a trade than get stuck in an oversized bad trade. With the first you survive, with the second you go broke.

👍 cryptographic

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@cryptographic · Dec 22 '17

$7.62

When taking a closer look around, it looks like the "biggies" have bounced off good Fib retracement levels - in the case of ETH and LTC, almost to the tick. When you see price action like this, you can bet that professionals are very likely involved. Clearly defined short setups led down into these levels and the bounce that we're seeing is probably profit taking on those short positions. The big question now is if the bounce will gain momentum and attract new longs, or peter out. This is one of those times when we're at a critical juncture for both the shorter term and the intermediate.

![btc22122017.jpg](https://steemitimages.com/DQmcofXjt2J7B97DykYhYnsDj7cdFHJwQJXgzdj8MTt8CUK/btc22122017.jpg)

![eth22122017.jpg](https://steemitimages.com/DQmZ8Qka1hwywLDrNEScHdYDMJSvABH7En5ontuiGqPamPs/eth22122017.jpg)

![bcc22122017.jpg](https://steemitimages.com/DQmXrVayX6HiLhE5LNGenVxWBfGpRrQtT11ffdPhEvx9yXp/bcc22122017.jpg)

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![dash22122017.jpg](https://steemitimages.com/DQmPBVrnx8khu1uNjaLKYzqEeYq6495EmgDWxPhqJSAux79/dash22122017.jpg)

👍 cryptographic, mikeflow

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@faissalchahid · Dec 23 '17

Yes it's an excellent analysis
Especially those strong currencies that occupy the top ranks
In such situations I see that the best way is to indulge in quick deals
Close any deal after you finish and convert your share of Bitcoin to Udt before you sleep
This is how I always do
The market is dangerous and does not fall into it

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@cutiepie · Dec 22 '17

i think i need to follow you right now for such great analysis :)

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@dini1 · Dec 22 '17

@cryptographic sir..
Such a useful article to me...I'm new comer to crypto world and steemit platform...I'm always try learn something with every posts...
I think that is good time for buy some coins...and hold increase prise...
I realy know and trust btc and steem can change my future life...
I'm become ur fan...and I'm always try followed ur blog everyday...bcz...I'm realy know I csn learn something witb ur posts about crypto...
Thanks sir..
Good luck....

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@faissalchahid · Dec 22 '17 (edited)

$3.33

❤Yes, it is a giant that moves at great prices in a standard circumstance
So I have to look for trades that are now showing me a correction that could reach me $ 11,000 for all the possibilities listed
When it rises, most currencies will be affected
So please be careful to maintain your excellent profits

👍 cryptographic

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@cryptographic · Dec 22 '17

$7.40

Yes, we're seeing a snapback right now, but, other than the fact that it reversed at the original $12,000 breakout level, it looks like it's coming a bit out of nowhere. There was a bullish Fibonacci extension, but the 61.8 was broken. The next Fib measurement level is a big measured move off of the November lows, but after a market goes up into extensions and then straight up mode, the last measured move can be unreliable. It doesn't look like there is any moving average support coming into play yet or natural trendlines either. Looks to me like the big confluences of support are down around the $10k-$11k area. Personally, I won't be buying anything down there, but it is a big area that everyone should be aware of since it could be where a short term relief rally could begin.

👍 cryptographic

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@faissalchahid · Dec 22 '17

Yes, you're right
I must always be aware that I am a very dangerous area and should not be greedy too much
I see he has a strong support line at nearly $ 12,000 in some major platforms

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@gold84 · Dec 24 '17

$1.35

@cryptogaphic you are very right about bitcoin and its downturns. It too just a few days to get down to the loevel it was before skyeroceting to 17,000. This will continue happening on each bull run until bitcoin is distributed in many more people.
Great to see bts and steem are in good standing after this downturns.

Upvoted and Resteemed!

Regards, @gold84

👍 cryptographic, gold84

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@greenwhell79 · Dec 27 '17

Thanks for sharing your valuable content..especially thanks for discuss about investing statement..cause i gain knowledge to your post in trading..well done.

followed ...upvoted and resteem

👍 greenwhell79

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@killerkuasha · Dec 26 '17

Bitcoin is unstoppable, it is the decentralized engine, though transactions are public. But untraceable currencies such as Monero are poised to capture a decent part of the market share. Stay thirsty my friends.

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@kivsha · Dec 24 '17

$0.61

  Thank you for an interesting read. 
I feel that it Just amplifies the fact that people just act like an herd - when a critical amount of people cashed out to fiat- the avalanche began.  That's proven once and again in the crypto market. When the market will relax and enough people will smell opportunity and buy crypto again - every one will panick into buying again and we can expect a nice value rise.

👍 cryptographic

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@mnaeemkhokhar · Dec 29 '17

that's great achievement  always great mind make this type of achievements

👍 mnaeemkhokhar

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@mywhale · Dec 22 '17

$3.27

Hello **@cryptographic**,

Extraordinary good article & an analysis.
http://www.relatably.com/q/img/bull-market-quotes/quote-a-bull-market-is-like-sex-it-feels-best-just-before-it-ends-warren-buffett-120-31-09.jpg
As you said, professionals traders take these panic situations as entry points to instant trades. BTC dropped instantly, but I think it will drop more & will touch your resistance levels also. Extraordinary good guidance for all crypto traders, hodlers & investors.  

~**@mywhale**

👍 cryptographic

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@cryptographic · Dec 22 '17

$6.90

I don't think the selling is over either. As always, we're talking about possibilities - everything's a setup - and probabilities, not predictions, but I think there are lots of reasons why we should see more selling into year end, from good old profit taking to tax rules regarding crypto investing and trading. https://news.bitcoin.com/trading-bitcoin-for-an-altcoin-wont-shield-you-from-the-irs-anymore/ That would just suck if you had to cover the tax costs before ever reverting to fiat. And does everyone of the crypto nouveau riche have that kind of capital to cover those costs without selling crypto? That could be a terrible snowball in the face.

👍 cryptographic

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@njokuoluchukwu · Dec 26 '17

I love these analysis. Thanks for sharing.

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@quinnpeterson · Dec 22 '17 (edited)

$1.58

hi @cryptographic
i hope you will doing well,great analysis of cryptocurrency
excellent topic share,this is so good topic at this time and helpful,bitcoin is a top investing site and btc is king all of coin market,at this time bitcoin is break down,i also like investman and love trading,very good hinse share of this post,i like your all post and looking for updates news,you are brelyant person on steemit,thanks for giving us a good post,thanks for sharing
wish you all the best...
Merry Christmas..

👍 cryptographic, undieable, quinnpeterson

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@cryptographic · Dec 22 '17

$6.81

BTC is the king, still, but how much longer will that last? https://steemit.com/bitshares/@stan/when-the-levee-breaks

There are other possibilities out there chomping at the bit, and more than prepared to take its place.

Merry Christmas to you too!

👍 cryptographic

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@richard-921 · Dec 22 '17 (edited)

$4.55

The same way just happen it could happen again tomorrow and we can do it all over again steem on!  And crypto on !

👍 cryptographic, richard-921, capper2016

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@cryptographic · Dec 22 '17

$7.29

No doubt about it. Bitcoin is completely uncharted territory, literally! Even though it's unlikely, it could go to $30,000 tomorrow! Never rule out anything when dealing with something like Bitcoin.

That means being very careful with trading and investing, especially when talking about the amounts. People say this so often that I'm afraid it might be losing its meaning, but it's still got to be said again and again: crypto is very speculative and people should only invest/trade what they can afford to lose.

👍 cryptographic, richard-921

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@richard-921 · Dec 22 '17 (edited)

$1.10

I am preaching that everywhere . I believe that is the key to long term success . Only invest what you can afford to lose. Thanks so much!

👍 richard-921, capper2016

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@robert31 · Dec 22 '17

$1.57

Hey  friend @cryptographic
 it's always great to see your report and always have investors to take the right decision for your post you really done a great work.

followed.. upvoted and resteem

👍 cryptographic

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@cryptographic · Dec 22 '17

Thanks @robert31. Glad you like it, and thanks for the resteem!

👍 robert31

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@robert31 · Dec 22 '17

welcome to friend @cryptographic
now i always support your blog.your advise is very great and i have learn to trading.now i daily reading your post.

properties (22)

@salahchiva · Dec 23 '17

First, thank you for this more realistic analysis
Second, the e-currency market has entered large whales that have billions of dollars. These whales play in the market
For example, they buy currencies with their huge money
 after that  a big rise in the currency,
We, as investors, buy these currencies, believing they will explode more
  Whales withdraw their money after making big profits
There is a significant drop in the currency and losses for us as investors
As happened on the previous Friday
@cryptographic

properties (22)

@serkagan · Dec 22 '17

$3.26

Oh yes,  the correction that is now happening was quite expected, as the market does not stand still and only on the change in the exchange rate is the movement on the exchanges. You correctly noticed, now is the time of the bears, but we will wait for the next take-off, that would be beneficial to distribute the assets! Thank you @cryptographic and keep us informed.

👍 cryptographic

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@cryptographic · Dec 22 '17

$7.10

I agree that there will be another "take-off" sooner or later. The key will be in being patient enough to buy back at decent prices whatever has been sold, and, of course, only buying back those that will take off again. BTC, for example, might not ever make it back (the key word there is "might", as this is a reflection of my grave doubts about its long term viability). There are others that I have in that same category. And then there are those I think will be big winners that will outperform the doubtful by 10, 20, 50, 100 or more, so why even mess with any dubious prospects to begin with? In any event, I think we'll have to resign ourselves to licking our crypto wounds for the foreseeable future. 

Maybe it's a good time to take some time off and enjoy the holidays instead!

👍 cryptographic

properties (23)vote details (1)

@serkagan · Dec 22 '17

You are right, now we just need to patiently watch and wait for the right moment, the calculation of the bears is very simple and is aimed at jerking hamsters. Therefore, I completely agree with you, enjoy the holidays! Thanks and good Christmas!

properties (22)

@sevenseals · Dec 22 '17

$3.22

There is still a lot of space down the green line, if not the lower red line:

![ggl.jpg](https://steemitimages.com/DQmWc4nPhWaDfCFnf93UhvBqmrCPEsSt1A5r3wRVWUCTPEX/ggl.jpg)

I will buy only at 8000.

👍 cryptographic

properties (23)vote details (1)

@cryptographic · Dec 22 '17

$6.96

And I'm thinking a pin through it down to $5,000 might be a nice scalp! &#128517;

👍 cryptographic

properties (23)vote details (1)

@shivohum2015 · Dec 22 '17

$3.17

Yes @cryptographic this correction was long due and this correction may prove otherwise as buying opportunity for testing the all time high again.

What does your elliot wave analysis says in regard to bitcoin, can we see some relief rally to this quick crash or it will continue bleeding.

Thank you and have a great day.

👍 cryptographic

properties (23)vote details (1)

@cryptographic · Dec 22 '17

$6.65

I really don't do much with Elliott Wave since I find it of little help for analyzing risk/reward on potential price movements. I do think it is interesting from a historical perspective though, and the impulse and corrective ideas are interesting. Certain patterns, like the extended 5th and extended 3rd, seem to have a degree of reliability as well. All on a more global level though because if you really get down to the nitty gritty of counting in an attempt to project, you'll go crazy and lose a lot of money. That's my experience and use anyway. I don't think there is any way of doing any kind of scenario analysis based on EW at this point, only that we may have finished an extended 5th higher, which would be bearish, so, well, I guess that's something. &#128533;

👍 cryptographic

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@steem-ripon · Dec 22 '17

$1.57

Thanks for sharing your valuable content..especially thanks for discuss about investing statement..cause i gain knowledge to your post in trading..well done.

followed ...upvoted and resteem

👍 cryptographic

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@cryptographic · Dec 22 '17

Much appreciated, and welcome to Steemit!

👍 steem-ripon

properties (23)vote details (1)

@steem-ripon · Dec 22 '17

thanks to.i am very very glad,because you support my comment.i like you. love your creativity and your thoughts.have a nice day..happy upcoming christmas day.

properties (22)

@steembusiness · Dec 24 '17

$0.81

The moves of Bitcoin simply can't be foreseen correctly at all. The market we are involved on is just crazy and highly volatile on top of that. 

I personally think that we are still in a bull market overall but will see a few days or weeks in which the bears dominate.

👍 cryptographic

properties (23)vote details (1)

@steemibu351 · Dec 26 '17

wow!!!so useful post for me.bitcoin has a gigantic figure in online trading system

👍 steemibu351

properties (23)vote details (1)

@steemitboard · Dec 26 '17

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properties (22)

@steemshiro · Dec 23 '17

$0.86

If you just hold your Crypto for the long haul you beat every whale and all the big money. This whole market will rise and when it does like it has 190 times before you will win. This is NOTHING New to Bitcoin or Crypto.

👍 cryptographic, videobooster

properties (23)vote details (2)

@steemwija · Dec 22 '17

$1.57

@cryptographic - Sir, it was sudden... It happened before we walk up :( OMG we were sitting on a bubble & you warned us before... Sir i hope people will not get heart attacks by this sudden drop, I know few of my friends (local) invested on BTC at $18,000 level Sir... Hope it might rise Sir... But this drop is very painful...  
https://steemitimages.com/DQmSvqcPYuxKgeVMxME6YeaNCnjLz9zFrbZ1opNqmQz17nr/BTC22112017.jpg

As you said Sir, Steem & Bts is a best shots... Thanks to your financial advices I didn't keep all investment in the same coin... Hope market will green again & we can make a nice profit by using it Sir... Nice you decided to this wonderful market review Sir...

+W+ [UpVoted & ReSteemed]

👍 cryptographic

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@cryptographic · Dec 22 '17

$6.50

Buckle up Sir. Prepare yourself for the worst, just in case.

👍 cryptographic

properties (23)vote details (1)

@sthitaprajna · Dec 22 '17

Since morning its red red and red only

So bitcoin is forcing me to take break

thanks

properties (22)

@taskmaster4450 · Dec 22 '17

$3.40

I was coming on here to put up a comment on your call yesterday congratulating you.  It seems your timing in impeccable.

You and I disagree on BTC simply because I do not believe Wall Street is anywhere near done with this animal.  The last month, we only saw an inkling of what it is capable of.  For them, the real money isnt here yet.  There will still be another $1T plus pumped into tokens.

Of course, it warrants pointing out that BTC isnt the only one slammed.  In fact, according to coinmarketcap, at 18% negative, it is one of the small falls....look at STEEM 33% (even BTS is about the same as BTC at 18% and change).

👍 cryptographic

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@cryptographic · Dec 22 '17

$7.10

All a matter of luck. In fact, it was something I was going to write earlier, but I was too busy to get to it. Eventually had it practically written in my head and finally got a chance to write it down, but couldn't finish and had to put it on hold for a few more hours when I started thinking that I'd better get it posted already before it was old and worthless. Luckily I got it up in time. Shouldn't let that kind of thing wait so long though.

Talking about Coinmarketcap and Alts, they were down almost 30% at the lows . . . which will be retested . . . question is how soon. &#128526;

STEEM and BTS looking strong. Did you see what @stan had to say about BTS? I'm wanting to buy back already. &#128565;

👍 cryptographic

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@taskmaster4450 · Dec 22 '17

I saw what he had to say but I didnt understand it....I havent followed his posts close enough to be able to decipher what he was referring to....I guess he had a teaser ongoing for a while.

If it wasnt a holiday weekend, I might spend the entire time going through all his posts to figure out what is going on...perhaps I should do it anyway.  LOL

And by the way, no luck involved.  Just sound principles in terms of your approach.  People do not realize that there needs to be a sound approach that one adopts and adheres to.  So many operate haphazardly when it comes to investing.  Whatever one's flavor, have rules and stick to it.  If you are a HODL, then dont get nervous and sell.  If you are a trader, dont look a gift horse in the mouth.

properties (22)

4 replies

@theguruasia · Dec 22 '17

$3.32

@cryptographic,
25 days ago what you said is going to be true soon! I am really curious about your sense of the market! Actually BTC was on a bubble, ugly but that's the truth and now the correction happened again! Correction of bubble is always reminds me scam of small investors and large gain for the top investors of the market!
Anyway I am glad I could read what you said about STEEM, BTS, ADA. So I made a nice profit and I have confidence about them as well!
**there’s no comparing a 300% or 500% gain (from the time of those writings) with a rapidly evaporating 50% gain (as of now). **
yeah it might not to be a big money in few days! But it's trending every day every night! And it reminds me a great quote "FAST is SHORT"! So in here we have no hurry, but STEEM, BTS is reaching there targets every day every hour!
Thank you very much for sharing this amazing current market analysis with us! Really appreciate your effort!

Cheers~

👍 cryptographic

properties (23)vote details (1)

@cryptographic · Dec 22 '17

$6.35

I'll take a steady Eddy any day of the week too, especially when they are already proven products. 

Lots of pumpers on Twitter this last month shilling the "S" curve, completely out of context by the way, on BTC. That "marketing" failure will give the "S" curve a bad name that those same folks will probably use to slam STEEM, BitShares and others when they really do show us a legitimate "S" curve in crypto. Will be our job to try and set the record straight and explain the difference.

👍 cryptographic

properties (23)vote details (1)

@upmyvote · Dec 22 '17

<p>This post has received a 4.08 % upvote from @upmyvote thanks to: @cryptographic.
Send at least 1 SBD to @upmyvote with a post link in the memo field to promote a post!
Sorry, we can't upvote comments.</p>

<center>https://i.imgur.com/dNNSypy.png</center>

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