The number of BTC transfers on the network has reached an annual high and the interesting thing is that these transactions are not by and for exchanges.

In fact the aggregate fund flow ratio of all exchanges is at an all-time low (see picture for a comparison of the two metrics).

This means that reasonably we are looking at Over the Counter (OTC) transactions indicating massive purchases by large funds and institutional investors.

The last time OTC volumes skyrocketed and inflows to and from exchanges dropped to lows we were in September 2020 and I think we all remember the fourth quarter of 2020 very well.

![image.png](https://i.imgur.com/LLZOzyX.png)

![image.png](https://i.imgur.com/CiBy0Vj.png)

## Bloomberg's predictions
According to the October Bloomberg Crypto Outlook, resistance at USD 50k could be converted into support for Bitcoin, with 40k as an analogous mark to 10k in Q4 of 2020, hinting at a brand new third all-time high in value after what it did in 2013 and 2017.

Crypto has managed to weather and overcome some major storms over the course of this year, Bloomberg explains. specifically, the newspaper points to a "bad press" promoted by leading business newspapers, the declaration of illegality of any transaction with cryptocurrencies in China and also the related stop to mining.

Last element is represented by the fickleness of Elon Musk, along with his contradictory and manipulative statements, first in support of Bitcoin and Dogecoin, so changing his opinion, especially with regard to the environmental impact of mining.

Despite these factors, they write from Bloomberg, Bitcoin has found important support around 30 thousand USD and so "at the start of the 4Q, we see similar foundations resulting in the gain of +171% within the 4Q of 2020".

In light of those predictions, 100k USD during 2021 may well be limited consistent with Bloomberg analysts.

"The October 4 price at around $49,000 is simply below its 10-year regression curve and not much above the 2021 average ($44,500)."

Furthermore, "Bitcoin was 'hot' in April before correcting on concerns over energy consumption and China's ban on mining, representing the distinctiveness and strength of the world's largest decentralized network. Our chart shows fundamental support, 260-day volatility fell in 2020 to its lowest level on record relative to most asset classes, particularly relative to the S&P 500."

Finally, for Bloomberg we see an upward trend within the prices of all cryptocurrencies, however one should always ask "what could cause a long-lasting reversal."

## Conclusions

Net of short volatility that may cause violent pullbacks (in this regard, today's bullish momentum was aided by an open market purchase of BTC for about $1.5bn on 5m timeframe, which of course triggered a short squeeze), the next few months are going to be incredible. I will be keeping a close eye on any corrections in the coming days to enter further into BTC and altcoins.

Thanks for reading


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