Technical analysis and comparison to the bitcoin market since 2012, there's loss to above 80% and we haven't reached that yet. 
We are having a  downward trend with patterns that repeat and repeat, we're in the fourth iteration of this and we recently touched 5800 *at th beginning of a new iteration* while each of the iterations ended up about 2500-3000 lower than the other- which would comfortably bring us close to 4000 or less. This is a definite and obvious trend that nobody half serious could have overlooked.
The only thing that could reverse the rend would be a sudden rise in investor morale or the entry of institutions but  institutions are divided, some keep spreading FUD while others are taking on a  cautiously positive view. Investor morale is of course dependent on these things, there's a little news window on the lower right sight of all free tradingview charts...  lately, news are getting better, volume gets better - but still manipulation is rife and the powers that be don't want a rise when they have the chance to get in at 4k or even less - why would they want to do that ? Why would I ? 

Why would anybody but a hodler, or folks who create posts on steemit, as positive posts simply pay better. cryptopassion is one I respect, he always presents a very neutral no-nonsense outlook, which most do not.

If this started to shoot up instead, I would be very satisfied and ride it of course but there is no reason why it should and about 75% against it, so I'm very cautious - and guess what, 90% of traders think exactly like that. Which is what makes it really relevant and rather predictable.
So if the tooth fairy and fifty whales don't suddenly decide to go all in now... but maybe they do.
Watch the parking meters...

![four.png](https://steemitimages.com/DQmTEE2Qi1uNHnJkRdBcbB7kgU3y8RmAh54g378ynJk6wbX/four.png)

But by that theory, the all time high at Christmas should never have happened, because the conference didn't take place then, and anyway it may have negative results. Big money getting into the market will make the market dependent on big money, which maybe isn't such a good thing...
Then again, some say the run before Christmas happened because of the Bitcoin Futures launch, and that this motivated the little investors. The futures weren't a big success, therefore the dump.
There's lots of theories. The only theory that truly holds is that human mass psychology drives the market, and that is only partially rational and largely emotional, as humans really have a very hard time  doing logic.
So when you draw a logical conclusion from these known facts and theories, it is the expectations of the little investors mostly that drives the market, and you can see from the market cap that most have their money t the exchanges and get out of crypto and into fiat whenever the psychological shit hits the fan. IT IS THEY WHO DECIDE, but in the absence of free will herd animals follow the general herd impression and fear, in an out, in and out.
There's nothing else they can do, they must run in the same direction, and the on;y question to answer is the one above, and it should be "when will the stampede start?"
And you say "I know a guy with a pistol !"
If they all stayed, no conferences would be needed to motivate them, and the MASSIVE PROPHETS on steemit would be enough to drive the market to new heights...
And if herd animals had free will, the market would turn bullish after I write this, and keep going up forever tomorrow ;)
We need a closer guy with a pistol...