How Bitcoin Futures Will Affect Price by cryptovestor

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bitcoin · @cryptovestor · Dec 10 '17

$145.45

How Bitcoin Futures Will Affect Price

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hwel3L6IZnc

Bitcoin futures launch tomorrow (Dec. 10) on CBOE and on December 18th for CME Group. Many people speculate that the cause for Bitcoin's run-up recently is over anticipation for these Bitcoin futures. In this video, I discuss the potential impact of futures on Bitcoin's price.

First and foremost, I suspect liquidity will be lower than expected. The target group for Bitcoin futures are institutional investors and wealthy individuals, both of which tend to be more cautious. Given the warnings from FIA, Interactive Brokers and many others, these larger investors will likely be more reserved until the first expiration occurs and they have some experience watching the volatility in the futures themselves.

I did a brief explanation of cash-settled futures in the video, but I'd recommend you seek other sources to flesh out your understanding further. For example, I accidentally implied that the initial margin requirement and mark-to-market process is done based off the spot price rather than the settlement price. The explanation I gave in the video is good enough for laymen, but if you want to trade these, then you'll want to do some serious reading. I might do a video showing how to actually trade them in the future and get more technical.

The initial margin requirements are already high for Bitcoin and might increase depending on volatility. Certain brokers are already implementing higher than required initial margin requirements and are forbidding their clients from going short. Maintenance margin requirements will likely be in flux as well. Price limits might be tested more frequently than anticipated, leading to a choppy futures market which then screws with the underlying spot market. All of this is to say that many investors will wait before pumping significant amounts of capital into this nascent asset class.

Given this, I suspect this might be a "sell-the-news" type event and we might experience a correction following the CME Group futures launching if there are difficulties associated with their clearing. Note that CME Group has much higher contract volume than CBOE, so the CBOE futures launch will likely be more useful as an indicator of what to expect when CME launches.

I also forgot to note in the video that CME Group contracts are for 5 Bitcoin, which may have confused some of you when I said the initial margin requirements would be exceptionally high for CME Group options despite the fact they are going with lower initial margin requirements (35% vs. 44%) as a percentage of the contract value.

In the long-term, futures are excellent news for Bitcoin. They increase liquidity in a somewhat illiquid market, will decrease pricing inconsistencies (arbitrage), improve price discovery, and reduce volatility. The short-term will see volatility rise (likely) due to leverage, but this effect should reduce over the following months. Ideally, this opens the door for a Bitcoin ETF down the road as well. Eventually, more institutional investors will jump in as risk declines - but this will be a delayed effect (in my opinion) rather than an immediate one.

I would love to hear your thoughts. Let me know in the comments below and thank you for watching!

👍 newsflash, tamim, transisto, ranchorelaxo, rmach, mod-tamichh, rambogoham, bonjovis, bobdos, znaffe, laurent, jist, benmar, energox, webresultat, guggerf, gmikeyg, thehoneybee, roji.abraham, nilpan, cyrptoreports, remuslord, bs1155, cryptomegamoto, steemvotes, auskipper, coinpatrol, chris9k, danielwong, nmexperience, multy-io, qdouglas15, cryptonewbs, mikerus, mjd2019, millashows, blessedcee, arturincelto, loulauman, kananews, lowpes, gargunzola, jfk971, iiivb, neutrinos, webposter, godfatherofsalsa, tinlin, braindizzle, diogogomes, marcodiversi, leadingdate, delilonia, meddevlo, skittle021, oswaldoafg94, thedon1, farukcom, donaldpatterson, bonv, joviye, rockanime, sinxsun, snars2017, and 42 others

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@anakur · Dec 10 '17

$10.57

Bitcoin Futures seems something like mortgage backed securities. I remember what happened to them in 2008-2009. Making money out of nothing is truly a genius idea but be careful.

👍 bayuya

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@davebrewer · Dec 11 '17

How the same?   MBS were packaged products, where bankers took 1,000s of grade D mortgages, and by putting a lot of crap together into a single package they got risk ratings agencies to go along with the gig so to speak, the new packages were classified as grade A securities, and could be resold at higher prices.

How does that have ANYTHING to do with Bitcoin Futures?

If you don't understand what you are talking about, there is always the opportunity to keep your mouth shut, as opposed to opening your mouth and removing all doubt.

👍 chroot

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@anakur · Dec 11 '17 (edited)

$10.59

You are insulting me! What I am saying is my business and if you don't agree it is your choice but think how you express it. 

And yes, I do now the fundamental differences between Mortgage backed securities and futures.  I am just comparing this two, because they are both financial instruments created out of "NOTHING"

And again. If you want to say something, EXPRESS your words in a way that don't make you look like an "Idiot".

👍 bayuya

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1 reply

@anakur · Dec 22 '17

$14.61

Maybe you think the nobel prize winners are also comparing two not-comparable assets?
http://www.businessinsider.com/paul-krugman-says-bitcoin-is-a-bubble-2017-12?utm_content=buffer1fe57&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_campaign=buffer-bi

👍 bayuya, anakur, knuckleuppoker

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@cryptomegamoto · Dec 11 '17

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👎 solisrex

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@flojo99 · Dec 10 '17

Thx for the really good content :)

👍 flojo99

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@gmikeyg · Dec 10 '17

$0.03

While institutional investors ARE likely to have a tepid response due to loss aversion behavior, the common man is just beginning to wake up to growth opportunities in BTC. Expect steady rises in value that outperform expectations as lightening networks get implemented and brokers/executives begin receiving a portion of their bonuses in BTC. Once Paypal enables BTC transfer, it is game over for the USD. The net result is that you will be able to buy commodities like gas and groceries in BTC.

Yes, institutional investors will be late to the game but grassroots support will continue to drive demand. Once these futures markets mature, waves of value growth should occur.

I would expect a few manipulated crashes from those in Goldman Sachs and the compromised Bitcoin Foundation. The common people who still don't understand BTC will sell, but support by people like us and the institutional investors will create even more swift rebounds than we have now.

👍 davebrewer, gmikeyg

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@davebrewer · Dec 11 '17

Your prediction was dead on.

Tepid price action on opening

https://steemit.com/btc/@davebrewer/xbtc-trading-opens-at-cboe-big-shorts-nope-slight-up-tick-in-btc-price-in-the-initial-futures-contracts

👍 gmikeyg

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@gmikeyg · Dec 13 '17

Thanks. Mark the date that the first public report on activity gets released. That is the day institutional investors will have some data to work with and if it is good, they will finally start to drive prices higher.

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voter	rshares	pct
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voter	rshares	pct
davebrewer	7,951,788,765	36%
roji.abraham	2,670,866,383	100%
oraclehack	1,143,158,510	100%
gargunzola	934,283,924	100%
missfernandes	1,073,478,076	100%
naief	1,160,514,724	100%
mikerus	1,096,685,255	100%

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