Hello Steemians! It has been a while since my last post. I was busy with some stuff so I apologize for my inactivity. Anyway, I will like to share a few random thoughts on the crypto markets followed by some updates of the few initiatives I am working on.

<h2>My thoughts on the cryptocurrency market</h2>

<h3>Bitcoin ETF</h3>

There have been many chatters about the possibility of a Bitcoin ETF and many people are excited about it. Some are even predicting how the price movement might be once the ETF is approved and launched. Drawing comparison to the Gold ETF in the past, a picture (attached below) comparing Gold and BTC prices is being circulated on the internet.

![image.png](https://ipfs.busy.org/ipfs/QmdEpv1bKVQKRSjLCPN1MK2bNSqSqCquicRZV7DkTAC67W)
[Source](http://is2.4chan.org/biz/1531939766343.png)

The first gold ETF was launched in 2003, at that time gold price was about $450 per ounce. Following the ETF launch, gold had a bull run till 2011, reaching a price of more than $2000 per ounce, which was a more than 300% gain. Hence, many people are hopeful that a Bitcoin ETF will propel BTC price to a new high, in the range of $30k or even $50k. 

I am personally not so hopeful. I think fundamentally, Bitcoin and gold are different. It was really difficult for common folks to invest in physical gold prior to the launch of the ETF. Therefore, the gold ETF was really a game changer for the industry. Compared to gold, it is so much easier for common people to invest in Bitcoin. We can buy it with credit cards at really small amount and it doesn't require a physical space to store. **So, in my opinion, an ETF will bring Bitcoin price up, but I do not think it will start a long bull run and trigger another parabolic price movement**.

<h3>Adoption is still key</h3>

For cryptocurrencies to be taken seriously, adoption is still the most important. That is why I am very excited to read these 2 pieces of news today.

**First news: [New Starbucks partnership with Microsoft allows customers to pay for Frappuccinos with bitcoin](https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/03/starbucks-partners-with-microsoft-ice-on-new-cryptocurrency.html)**

>The Seattle-based coffee giant is working with Microsoft and a leading global exchange on a new digital platform that will allow consumers to use bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies at Starbucks.

>Starbucks along with Intercontinental Exchange, Microsoft and BCG, among others, is working to launch a new company called Bakkt that will enable consumers and institutions to buy, sell, store and spend cryptocurrencies on the global network by November. The platform with convert bitcoin and other cryptocoins into U.S. dollars that can be used to buy a Cold Foam Cascara Cold Brew, Matcha Lemonade or anything else at Starbucks.

**Second news: [Coinbase Brings Crypto Payment Option to Millions of Online Merchants](https://www.ccn.com/coinbase-brings-crypto-payment-option-to-millions-of-online-merchants/)**

>Coinbase Commerce, a cryptocurrency payment provider, has announced a series of initiatives to support crypto commerce, including a WooCommerce plugin to give millions of merchants the option to accept cryptocurrencies, the ability to send bitcoin and litecoin directly, and other new capabilities. Coinbase believes the improved access will support adoption of cryptocurrency and a more open financial system.

These news to me are even much better than a Bitcoin ETF. These are concrete evidence that adoption of the cryptocurrencies is growing. Now when people ask you, what can you do with your Bitcoin? You might struggle to provide an answer. But not too long in the future, you will be able to proudly say, I bought this cup of Starbucks Frappuncino with my Bitcoin &#128526;. Words will spread and by that time, it might be a cool thing to use Bitcoin for purchases. It is this kind of gradual adoption which will bring a sustainable and smooth price increase.

https://steemitimages.com/0x0/https://steemitimages.com/0x0/https://steemitimages.com/0x0/https://steemitimages.com/0x0/https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmTmwRbJG8FrWYFpkLR9GKTDcQAD1peWkCsLcCotMiBoqm/Line%20Big%20Steem%20Blue%20Divider.png

<h2>Updates on initiatives</h2>

<h3>Steem Oracle Project</h3>

I think I have lazed around enough and it is time to get back to work, haha.. As previously mentioned, the 2nd experiment will be on cryptocurrency price prediction. I have decided on the format and it is going to be like this. Each prediction is to predict the price movement of a cryptocurrency 5 days later. There will be 3 options for each prediction,
1) Price will be 10% higher
2) Price will be 10% lower
3) Price will be within 10% range

When each contest post is added, the name of the cryptocurrency and the price at that point in time will be included. Participants will have 24 hours to submit their predictions. The rewards will also be changed, I am still thinking about it and will provide some updates later.

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<h3>Byteball to Steem conversion service</h3>

Till date, I have helped 8 Steemians converted a total of 1.398 Gbyte worth of Byteballs. The service is still running and if you are interested, do check out this [post](https://steemit.com/byteball/@culgin/i-am-running-a-service-to-convert-byteball-to-steem) on how you can easily convert your Byteballs to Steem using my service &#128521;.

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<h3>Culgin's Game</h3>

I launched ["Culgin's Game"](https://busy.org/@culgin/culgin-s-game-2-sbi-shares-to-be-won) some time last week and the puzzle was solved rather quickly. The 2nd game will be launched next week and there will be 2 SBI shares of reward as well. So stay tuned! This time it will not be that easy anymore &#128539;.

https://steemitimages.com/0x0/https://steemitimages.com/0x0/https://steemitimages.com/0x0/https://steemitimages.com/0x0/https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmTmwRbJG8FrWYFpkLR9GKTDcQAD1peWkCsLcCotMiBoqm/Line%20Big%20Steem%20Blue%20Divider.png

Thanks everyone for reading! Let me know your thoughts on the current crypto market and also the initiatives that I am running.

![steem-divider1.png](https://ipfs.busy.org/ipfs/QmPsAtjgRpyLH3o5p6zEvihF9fGkhL4uXPVJUysEwdyD5r)

**Projects/Services I am working on:**
- [Steem-Oracle Project](https://steemit.com/steemoracle/@culgin/the-steem-oracle-project-harnessing-the-wisdom-of-steemians)
- [Byteball to Steem conversion service](https://steemit.com/byteball/@culgin/i-am-running-a-service-to-convert-byteball-to-steem)

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**You can find me in these communities:**

<center>[<img src="https://ipfs.busy.org/ipfs/QmQoa55t8qhBSYpGd4zqrmy264wWE8RUbn8P4ZZRGKBvko">](https://discord.gg/YJG6j7p)</center>

<center>[<img src="https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmR6qDmmpEJ9nhMbo6X4d35V3m8n75bo9691Tpv96chn7t/TeamSG%20Discord.png">](https://discord.gg/cymRS36)</center>