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[EpicDice] 設計投資商品的訣竅:以EPC為例 by deanliu

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· @deanliu ·
$14.78
[EpicDice] 設計投資商品的訣竅:以EPC為例
https://steemitimages.com/0x0/https://steemitimages.com/640x0/https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmbzs8Wbbm1WE5qwHTwd4iRqBwicQCdf5ETZtrAkozDRC4/Artboard%205@20x.png

今天要談的是投資商品的設計,對,不談賭博。

在開始之前,透露一個小秘密:我原本持EPC不少的,但是在那一次[內心不夠亂,暫時停止營業](https://steemit.com/sct/@deanliu/238y5u-epicdice)事件時,我自以為算是很快看到消息,立馬快刀斬亂麻,出脫大部位EPC,怕市場反應很負面.... 但我當然不是長期看壞EpicDice,因為團隊沒變,只是遭到一點意外,所以我賣出後,其實是馬上掛低價單的...

結果,反被聰明誤,市場原來比我更看好,價格修正不大,我的低價單都買不回來,自以為可以投資操作換到更多籌碼,反而是被洗出場了... Orz... 最近才又開始慢慢累積買回一些,但已經持幣少了不少...

好的,哭完了。回到正題。

開題之前,先來說說一個命題:

***
#### 為什麼EPC不可能一顆高於0.0002 STEEM?
***
這命題是真是假,你聽我說說看再評論。這裡用的是反證法:

If EPC > 0.0002 STEEM, and by betting 1 STEEM you get 100 EPC. It's a 98% betting game, meaning House on average take away 2% initially, so betting 1 STEEM, you will get 0.98 STEEM and 100 EPC, which is more than 0.02 STEEM. Then you will have a positive sum betting game, which is impossible to last. Q.E.D.

哎呀,別裝正經了,你又不是來看數學證明的,我就寫英文得了。反正,價格高過這數目,是不可持續的賭局就是了。

過去這幾週的EPC價格,基本上也幾乎沒高過0.0002,通常就是在0.0001x附近上下的。所以,這也讓莊家的實質抽佣金率,降到不到1%!其實真的是很划算的。(不鼓勵)

好了,看似證明上述命題後,我本來覺得自己是絕頂聰明的投資家天才,後來自己覺得自己其實很笨...

我認為,這命題不一定成真。>_<~~~~~

為什麼呢?

因為,這賭局是有限制的,EPC每發行10%,就會啟動減半,亦即睹每1 STEEM可以得到的EPC,第一次減半後,會只剩下50 EPC!!

這代表我的反證法其實是有問題的,也就是賭局有可能局部是有正的預期利潤的,反正後面有機制賭注,不致於讓莊家倒台的...

後來去想,就越想越複雜,原因是....

EPC的價格其實應該是反映未來EpicDice的經營,而這件事其實是很難去定價的,甚至還包括EPC betting,以及EPC halving等複雜的機制... 無論如何,短期局部的賭局正預期利潤是有可能存在的,如果ED其實經營得很好的話...

而一間公司,或是一個團隊的經營,就具備非常多不確定因素,例如競爭者,例如Steem用戶的增長率,例如新推出的賭局遊戲,例如上次遭逢的意外....

而當你投資一間公司的理由,變成一種公說公有理,婆說婆有理的個人看法的時候,任何可能的市場價格都是可以被支撐的,這也讓代表公司營運的幣,產生想像空間。

這時候,EPC的價格就很難說多少是"合理"的,從而產生一種可能的美好想像空間?@_@

如果,當初團隊決定,EPC價值來自於持幣者可以依持幣獲得不同程度的官方點讚,那麼,這個幣的想像空間就會大減,但也變得比較可以"計算",價格勢必會比較穩定的...

如果你要發幣,是不是就是應該設計一種,不那麼單純,有一些不那麼容易計算未來的規則,然後又似乎跟未來營運表現有關的,這樣一種機制,這樣,其實反而提高了這個幣被人研究的興趣,發行方也更容易賦予這個幣一些想像空間呢~~~

當然,也要注意設計機制,畢竟定案後通常不好改,沒設計好的話,也可能會讓這投資商品就...... XD

以上分享完畢。

話說,最近EPC分紅都不錯的,難怪持幣大戶們前十名都已經幾乎上了千萬顆等級,看來我是望塵莫及啦~~~

最後,一個小提示,目前EPC發行已經快到8%,第一次減半應該一個月內可以見到吧?我個人是覺得,在那之前是不錯的介入時機,如果市價有比較跌一點的話....

但是,記得我前面說的,其實這很難去真的計算,你就隨便聽聽就是了.... XD

https://steemitimages.com/0x0/https://steemitimages.com/640x0/https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmbzs8Wbbm1WE5qwHTwd4iRqBwicQCdf5ETZtrAkozDRC4/Artboard%205@20x.png
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@chireerocks ·
@deanliu, I had these **Tokens** and in my opinion this project went into stagnancy for sometime.

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@deanliu ·
EPC? It's quite alive and kicking, I think... :D
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@chireerocks ·
I think i had wrong perception then. Thank you for letting me know.

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@hertz300 ·
$0.03
几百万的EPC早就卖了,哈哈😄

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@deanliu ·
$0.03
最近分紅不錯,要不要再跳進來? ^_^
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@hertz300 ·
没钱买了😄
!shop

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@teamcn-shop ·
你好鸭,刘美女!
@hertz300赠送1枚SHOP币给你!
![](https://ipfs.busy.org/ipfs/QmXmMvqUag8xsUmrwWzYiqwBojWR4ijaGet8xS9m3znLtJ)

目前你总共有: 7枚SHOP币
<p><sup>查看或者交易 <code>SHOP币</code> 请到 <a href="https://steem-engine.com/?p=market&t=SHOP">steem-engine.com</a>.</sup></p>
无聊吗?跟我猜拳吧! **石头,剪刀,布~**
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@wanghj353 ·
支持你的贴子(by MARLIANS)
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@honoru ·
期待美少女幣的推出

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@deanliu ·
我出臉孔,您出資金!? lol
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@honoru ·
$0.06
出一個幣不用太多錢100eng 而已。
唯獨是,不懂得怎樣營運而不虧。

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@steemitboard ·
Congratulations @deanliu! You have completed the following achievement on the Steem blockchain and have been rewarded with new badge(s) :

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