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[EpicDice] 設計投資商品的訣竅：以EPC為例 by deanliu

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cn · @deanliu ·
$14.78
[EpicDice] 設計投資商品的訣竅：以EPC為例
https://steemitimages.com/0x0/https://steemitimages.com/640x0/https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmbzs8Wbbm1WE5qwHTwd4iRqBwicQCdf5ETZtrAkozDRC4/Artboard%205@20x.png

今天要談的是投資商品的設計，對，不談賭博。

在開始之前，透露一個小秘密：我原本持EPC不少的，但是在那一次[內心不夠亂，暫時停止營業](https://steemit.com/sct/@deanliu/238y5u-epicdice)事件時，我自以為算是很快看到消息，立馬快刀斬亂麻，出脫大部位EPC，怕市場反應很負面.... 但我當然不是長期看壞EpicDice，因為團隊沒變，只是遭到一點意外，所以我賣出後，其實是馬上掛低價單的...

結果，反被聰明誤，市場原來比我更看好，價格修正不大，我的低價單都買不回來，自以為可以投資操作換到更多籌碼，反而是被洗出場了... Orz... 最近才又開始慢慢累積買回一些，但已經持幣少了不少...

好的，哭完了。回到正題。

開題之前，先來說說一個命題：

***
#### 為什麼EPC不可能一顆高於0.0002 STEEM？
***
這命題是真是假，你聽我說說看再評論。這裡用的是反證法：

If EPC > 0.0002 STEEM, and by betting 1 STEEM you get 100 EPC. It's a 98% betting game, meaning House on average take away 2% initially, so betting 1 STEEM, you will get 0.98 STEEM and 100 EPC, which is more than 0.02 STEEM. Then you will have a positive sum betting game, which is impossible to last. Q.E.D.

哎呀，別裝正經了，你又不是來看數學證明的，我就寫英文得了。反正，價格高過這數目，是不可持續的賭局就是了。

過去這幾週的EPC價格，基本上也幾乎沒高過0.0002，通常就是在0.0001x附近上下的。所以，這也讓莊家的實質抽佣金率，降到不到1%！其實真的是很划算的。（不鼓勵）

好了，看似證明上述命題後，我本來覺得自己是絕頂聰明的投資家天才，後來自己覺得自己其實很笨...

我認為，這命題不一定成真。>_<~~~~~

為什麼呢？

因為，這賭局是有限制的，EPC每發行10%，就會啟動減半，亦即睹每1 STEEM可以得到的EPC，第一次減半後，會只剩下50 EPC！！

這代表我的反證法其實是有問題的，也就是賭局有可能局部是有正的預期利潤的，反正後面有機制賭注，不致於讓莊家倒台的...

後來去想，就越想越複雜，原因是....

EPC的價格其實應該是反映未來EpicDice的經營，而這件事其實是很難去定價的，甚至還包括EPC betting，以及EPC halving等複雜的機制... 無論如何，短期局部的賭局正預期利潤是有可能存在的，如果ED其實經營得很好的話...

而一間公司，或是一個團隊的經營，就具備非常多不確定因素，例如競爭者，例如Steem用戶的增長率，例如新推出的賭局遊戲，例如上次遭逢的意外....

而當你投資一間公司的理由，變成一種公說公有理，婆說婆有理的個人看法的時候，任何可能的市場價格都是可以被支撐的，這也讓代表公司營運的幣，產生想像空間。

這時候，EPC的價格就很難說多少是"合理"的，從而產生一種可能的美好想像空間？@_@

如果，當初團隊決定，EPC價值來自於持幣者可以依持幣獲得不同程度的官方點讚，那麼，這個幣的想像空間就會大減，但也變得比較可以"計算"，價格勢必會比較穩定的...

如果你要發幣，是不是就是應該設計一種，不那麼單純，有一些不那麼容易計算未來的規則，然後又似乎跟未來營運表現有關的，這樣一種機制，這樣，其實反而提高了這個幣被人研究的興趣，發行方也更容易賦予這個幣一些想像空間呢～～～

當然，也要注意設計機制，畢竟定案後通常不好改，沒設計好的話，也可能會讓這投資商品就...... XD

以上分享完畢。

話說，最近EPC分紅都不錯的，難怪持幣大戶們前十名都已經幾乎上了千萬顆等級，看來我是望塵莫及啦～～～

最後，一個小提示，目前EPC發行已經快到8%，第一次減半應該一個月內可以見到吧？我個人是覺得，在那之前是不錯的介入時機，如果市價有比較跌一點的話....

但是，記得我前面說的，其實這很難去真的計算，你就隨便聽聽就是了.... XD

https://steemitimages.com/0x0/https://steemitimages.com/640x0/https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmbzs8Wbbm1WE5qwHTwd4iRqBwicQCdf5ETZtrAkozDRC4/Artboard%205@20x.png
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@chireerocks · 
@deanliu, I had these **Tokens** and in my opinion this project went into stagnancy for sometime.

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@deanliu · 
EPC? It's quite alive and kicking, I think... :D
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@chireerocks · 
I think i had wrong perception then. Thank you for letting me know.

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@hertz300 ·
$0.03
几百万的EPC早就卖了，哈哈😄

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@deanliu ·
$0.03
最近分紅不錯，要不要再跳進來? ^_^
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@hertz300 · 
没钱买了😄
!shop

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@teamcn-shop · 
你好鸭，刘美女!
@hertz300赠送1枚SHOP币给你！
![](https://ipfs.busy.org/ipfs/QmXmMvqUag8xsUmrwWzYiqwBojWR4ijaGet8xS9m3znLtJ)

目前你总共有： 7枚SHOP币
<p><sup>查看或者交易 <code>SHOP币</code> 请到 <a href="https://steem-engine.com/?p=market&t=SHOP">steem-engine.com</a>.</sup></p>
无聊吗？跟我猜拳吧！ **石头，剪刀，布～**
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@wanghj353 · 
支持你的贴子（by MARLIANS）
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@honoru · 
期待美少女幣的推出

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@deanliu · 
我出臉孔，您出資金！？ lol
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@honoru ·
$0.06
出一個幣不用太多錢100eng 而已。
唯獨是，不懂得怎樣營運而不虧。

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@steemitboard · 
Congratulations @deanliu! You have completed the following achievement on the Steem blockchain and have been rewarded with new badge(s) :

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