This is an attempt of using the results of analysis done on the meritocratic bot @utopian-io to estimate this voting round's result. 

**DISCLAIMER: Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. This author will not be liable for anything you use this for.**

## Outline

1. Reason for Analysis
1. Scope of Analysis
1. Contributions to be Voted On
1. Analyzing Previous Performance
1. Estimates

## 1. Reason for Analysis

This was triggered by a comment from @abh12345, this author cannot remember where that is, but the content of the comment was something like *"the value of this analyses will be in their use of predicting future performance."*

## 2. Scope of Analysis

Data to be estimated are those contributions that have not yet been voted on by the @utopian-bot, but were already approved by the [moderators](https://utopian.io/moderators).

![image.png](https://res.cloudinary.com/hpiynhbhq/image/upload/v1513717108/ndsqvshquryoqvjc4y9t.png)

* Data was acquired on `Dec. 19, 2017 2102H UTC` using Utopian's API
    * `https://api.utopian.io/api/posts/?limit=0&skip=0&section=all&sortBy=created&filterBy=review&status=any&type=all`

## 3. Contributions to be Voted On

Based on the table below, there are **419 contributions** to be up-voted by the bot this round. There's still a possibility for this number to increase with the remaining **2 hours** before the bot starts voting.

![image.png](https://res.cloudinary.com/hpiynhbhq/image/upload/v1513717734/hv4mpglpf2yiuciwfvct.png)

Here's a view of the contributions per category:

| Bar | Radar | Donut |
| -- | -- | -- |
| ![image.png](https://res.cloudinary.com/hpiynhbhq/image/upload/v1513718134/qawwybi4il6aiqv4lfn2.png) | ![image.png](https://res.cloudinary.com/hpiynhbhq/image/upload/v1513718156/kaoqe8lxdtqaavn5rojz.png) | ![image.png](https://res.cloudinary.com/hpiynhbhq/image/upload/v1513718303/uql0o6ujzctp7aeu0d57.png) |

Based on the charts above, **tutorials** and **translations** make up **56%** of the contributions to be voted on with **118** and **117** each, respectively.

## 4. Analyzing Previous Performance

Data to be analyzed and applied will be based on the voting performance of the **immediate previous round.** As of this time, the immediate previous round is **Dec. 18, 2017.**

![image.png](https://res.cloudinary.com/hpiynhbhq/image/upload/v1513719357/e23fsdq3a2kq2nalwdlb.png)

The key values this author is looking at are:
1. Number of Contributions Voted on
2. Total Voting Weight Used (%)
3. Sum of Bot Vote ($)

The category to be estimated is the **Translation** category.

### 4.1. Zooming Into Translations

Based on the numbers above, the distribution of the rewards pool was as follows:

| Vote Count | % Distribution |
| -- | -- |
| ![image.png](https://res.cloudinary.com/hpiynhbhq/image/upload/v1513720584/xczkoype2fyganc27nl4.png) | ![image.png](https://res.cloudinary.com/hpiynhbhq/image/upload/v1513720593/mrivfpxmexxl1ouwqmdl.png) |

Based on the table above, there were only **two (2) voting weights** used by the bot to vote for **translations.** They are **3.67%** and **5.41%.** Looking into their vote values will give us:

![image.png](https://res.cloudinary.com/hpiynhbhq/image/upload/v1513721485/r5nx6h8rwfs7dhppkjm7.png)

And here's a look at the voting weight and vote values as time went by:

![image.png](https://res.cloudinary.com/hpiynhbhq/image/upload/v1513721575/ahjohpea8llrzczcyyfx.png)

## 5. Estimates

As of this time, the bot will be up-voting in roughly around 1.5 hours. 

![image.png](https://res.cloudinary.com/hpiynhbhq/image/upload/v1513721673/oqk9tztsxjnldhc2npbr.png)

Assuming the same weight % will be distributed as follows:

![image.png](https://res.cloudinary.com/hpiynhbhq/image/upload/v1513722212/u9kc0svxtc05fiohijlw.png)


The estimated vote rewards to be given to **translations** is **$3651**.

![image.png](https://res.cloudinary.com/hpiynhbhq/image/upload/v1513722562/zke6c3v3rpbqaaqvlreh.png)

#### Tools Used

* [SteemSQL](http://www.steemsql.com/) by @arcange
* Node.js and npm to extract the data
* Power BI and Excel to generate the charts

#### Source Code

Codes used to extract data for this analysis are available in Github:
https://github.com/eastmaels/biutopian

***
<sup>I am part of a Blockchain Business Intelligence community. We all post under the tag #BlockchainBI. If you have an analysis you would like carried out on Steemit or Blockchain data, please do contact me or any of the#BlockchainBI team and we will do our best to help you...</sup>

<sup>You can find #blockchainbi on discord https://discordapp.com/invite/JN7Yv7j</sup>

<br /><hr/><em>Posted on <a href="https://utopian.io/utopian-io/@eastmael/estimating-the-utopian-bot-s-performance-blockchain-business-intelligence">Utopian.io -  Rewarding Open Source Contributors</a></em><hr/>