![image.png](https://images.hive.blog/DQmb3B7b2WKANPdPuoQMAk9HC7gGFgScaeEi9Uwiwa9aaLq/image.png)

* $29k
* $38k
* $44.5k

After the third main supply-shock ($44.5k) was confirmed: the market clearly became unstable as the trendline (teal) continued up very quickly and flipped resistance.  What happens from here will make or break market confidence.  Personally I think we are going to confirm supply shock once or twice more at this $44.5k level over the next two weeks. 

There is also the chance we start trading in the $45k-$40k range again, which would fully smash retail confidence at this point.  Fickle things, retail investors. 

![annual_cycle.png](https://images.hive.blog/DQmc8DzkrxBCaY6qMpkKtMZNQucmV5dEA9pTXw5SHrB5mLK/annual_cycle.png)

![septembercyclebadbearish.png](https://images.hive.blog/DQmVjwwQ6sGWuDWc2T3pVEsQf28RjyJYQzyvEQRpozJfLPZ/september-cycle-bad-bearish.png)

### September is crap.
The war of work and school are back.  People spent too much money in the summer.  Everyone needs to tighten. Money is not flowing. Just gotta get past this bad moon cycle and we are on to a potential mega-bubble at the end of the year.  At this point it looks like Hive will go something like x10-x100.  Yeah, that's a big range.  DCA accordingly. 

#### LEO massively oversold. 
I can't seem to get myself to buy more LEO, but I know it's oversold because of previous price action.  I was selling LEO into Hive at a 4:1 ratio and now my 10x rule is kicking in. 

If I once sold LEO for 4 Hive a piece, wouldn't it be smart to buy some back at a 0.33:1 ratio?  That's an x12 difference, friends.  But honestly I still think Hive has a lot more pump left as there seems to be a major supply-shock somewhere in the 50-75 cent range. Bulls gobbled that range up and it doesn't look like it's getting dumped back on the market anytime soon.  

-----

###### Meanwhile, LEO has been stuck in a soon™ cycle for a while now.  
The ratio might get worse before it gets a whole lot better. 

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Both Hive and LEO potentially have huge airdrops at the end of the year. This is another reason to hold both.  With as much Hive as I have to my name at this point, my 3Speak airdrop is going to be massive. Ditto with LEO, I might have 100k by the time the airdrop for Project Blank comes down the pipe. 

### This is the time to start pricing in airdrops.
Speculation on airdrops doesn't start to get fierce until about 3 months before they happen.  I would guess that we are somewhere in the 3-6 month range for both of these airdrops, which is where diehard holders can get in before the speculators come in and make everything more volatile and chaotic. 

The real hope here is that CUB pumps and I can take that value and distribute it back to Hive and LEO. The market should be bottoming out for the next two weeks if the moon cycle has anything to do with it... which has been insanely accurate for months now. 

### And why would CUB pump? 
Well the next IDO coming down the pipe is Polygon (Matic) CUB. 100% CUB will be burned in this one, so half doesn't need to be paired to USD.  This means the price can't go down this time around like it did with Cakepop. 

Also the price is back to hardcore 50 cent support levels.  I've gone back to ultra-holding my farm, and I'm sure many others will as well now that there's no more "bonus" for selling.  Less and less whales are speculating on IDOs being a bullish event because of the lack-luster first one combined with soon™.  

The next CUB pump is going to be 100% organic from a actual fundamental gains that can't be speculated on at this point. That's exciting. I know a lot of people in the community are going to burn quite a bit of CUB to get on the Polygon platform. 

This is going to increase the kingdom yield by quite a bit, as many of the hardcore users are going to want to diversify to the other network.  Obviously, there will also be pressure to buy from the LPs. An increasing price will push yields up, cause impermanent losses, and domino effect into higher price FOMO. 

### soon™
I'm not sure how much momentum we'll get over the next two weeks, or even if there will be an IDO by then.  However, if it does come down the pipe by then and pump CUB when everything else is fully bottomed out... that will certainly be the time to fill up the other bags with CUB.  Too bad I never follow my own advice when it comes down to making the decision in the moment.  

#### My greed is infinite!  
>No I can't sell CUB it's going to keep going up! 

 ![greedbank.jpeg](https://images.hive.blog/DQme2MuyD1Z1cQVF2bNeSvoBp7LQb9u4ejkWrM33U5DGHy1/greed-bank.jpeg)

### Trust is needed. 
The first IDO was by a team we know nothing about.  The second comes from the LEO dev team.  Who do we trust more?  This next IDO is going to burn exponentially more in a way that can only pump the price up and drive up the yield of the kingdom.  

### So I should buy CUB?!?
Not really... this is all coming from the perspective of someone who has stake in all four of the main pools:

* Den
* CUB/BUSD
* CUB/BNB
* bLEO/BNB

Each has a unique advantage that I have talked about extensively. So when I say that CUB is bottoming out and I'm not dumping my farm on the market anymore... that's a lot different that taking value from somewhere else and pumping it into this network.  I could only see myself doing that if one of my other bags went x10 and I was looking to rebalance the value.  Rather this is the exact thing I hope happens with CUB in the coming weeks/months so I can rebalance into other assets that haven't mooned yet.   LEO and Hive are at the top of that list. 

### Hive > Steem 
It's also nice to see that we are holding our $25M market cap lead on Steem these days.  I expect that gap will continue to widen as that empty husk of a network chugs along. Honestly enough time has passed that a lot of this is water under the bridge and I don't really care, but there will be a certain satisfaction achieved when Hive is trading 10x higher than the "sister chain".  We have all the devs; we have the community; we win.   Just a matter of time at this point. 


# Conclusion 
September is trash month.  
The real fun starts in October. 

Posted Using [LeoFinance <sup>Beta</sup>](https://leofinance.io/@edicted/market-watch-cub-to-burn-100-in-next-ido)