## **TL;DR: We are in the early majority Phase.**

![](https://steemitimages.com/DQmYNgUakth2eSqJnmmozrL9VBTnQZA47bZbctPsPMxwCVV/image.png)

## Trigger warning! Steemit people.
#### I will rashly criticize Bitcoin. Please stop now so you don't need to flag me if you have religious views on Bitcoin. I will bear no resentment regardless of your actions.

Now, many people would love to think we are the early adopters or in the innovator's phase. I will absolutely double down on the fact that Bitcoin works like a Ponzi, even if I get flagged... again. Some of you would prefer if I use the term Metcalfe's Law for network's growth, but I think Ponzi is far more honest as it doesn't create value but store it, [I've already explained why I say this](https://steemit.com/cryptocurrency/@ertwro/bitcoin-is-a-ponzi-scheme-here-s-why). 
Let me explain why the number of Bitcoin "Users" is actually bigger than you would imagine at first.

-----------------

The fundamental value of Bitcoin technologies lies in giving one out of the many partial solutions to the [Byzantine generals' problem](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Two_Generals%27_Problem) by [Fault-tolerant computer systems](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fault-tolerant_computer_system). Perhaps  Bitcoin is the first mainstream application but not the first useful application and not the best one.

> Here, a video of the Byzantine generals problem.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X7jzXlt6CgE

The problem of how to send reliably a message through an unreliable channel created a new science. Information theory. The particular solution Bitcoin uses is an adaptation of an accounting technique by multiple signatures in a proof-of-work.

This approach is exponentially more expensive than centralized approaches. The whole update drama is about extending the Ponzi.

Almost by any metrics, decentralized applications are WORST: UX, speed, governance, features.
They make sense if the centralized party is abusive. The uses for these networks are limited and could be used by centralized parties.

 If Bitcoin entrance transactions don't become cheaper, other alt coins will extend a network to transform fiat into them. Like this Bitcoin use would drop and will start to devalue.
![](https://steemitimages.com/DQmeartntMVs62LhHzDdAdvjTA8U1qHg919KQDgh4LkvEfN/image.png)

What's happening at the moment is that the early adopters don't want to lose their earning so are starting to behave like a government. After all most of the current problem is one of governance and not of technology. Their response to this extending the network by side-chains.

As of now, the ROI for Bitcoin is approximate 392.857x. For every $100 at the beginning, you would now have 39 Millions of Dollars. This seems impressive but is lowering as time goes by, especially if you compare it to the newcomers.

Ethereum grew 1000X since 2014 in the same period of time Bitcoin grew 10x
Stratis grew 853x since last year in the same period Bitcoin grew 5x.
Doesn't seem like the best idea to have Bitcoin in comparison. 

The rate of advancement is increasing for Bitcoin but the logarithmic incentives for conservation are diminishing. Time is compressing in the cryptospace.

Not too long ago, Litecoin was being called a scam coin. All projects are called **scams** until most early adopters most recognize they have missed out. Well is because all of them are Ponzi's, but there's value in the technology these Ponzies use.

It's pretty naive to think that people with millions of dollars that are currently in this space are gonna go through the exchanges. They use escrows and transact through traders and hold a single account. When they do become visible is because one of them dumps 39.000 ETH in an exchange creating a [flash crash](http://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-caused-the-ethereum-flash-crash-2017-06-22). Some of them never get in through Bitcoin. 

As the barrier for entry on the low level and high levels of fiat exchange are highly technical and expensive, most people use third parties for this. I have given advice to at least 10 people who have given me cash for crypto-currencies different to Bitcoin. I'm not a trader, I'm a Doctor in a third world country.

Just as Steemit is doubling its active users base during this price rise, the same goes for the number of people that transact in any way with Bitcoin.

There's a white paper by [Coinbase and ark investment](http://research.ark-invest.com/bitcoin-asset-class) by January of this year. They estimated >10 million users at the time. Since then just in the past month, Coinbase had to add 1 million new accounts.

By Fermian calculations there must be around 80 million people in the world who have used actively cryptocurrencies at least once for speculative value. Just like there are many people who have multiple accounts there are many who share one (exchanges, hedge funds and families in third world countries)

Out of them, at least 10 million must be active users, and close to 5 million are in for the long term.

Andreas Antonopoulos guessed that Bitcoin would go mainstream in 20 years, ridiculous. It will become Mainstream adoption by August 2018.

Also I estimate thanks to the inaction of the network during the next following weeks and the natural S-curve behavior of this technology, by August Bitcoin price will reach <$1800 out of current users short term exhaustion of the profit, then it would be close to $2000 for a couple of weeks to finish the year with close to  $5.000 and $13.000 by the end of January. Just to fall again to close to $3000 by May. This is gonna be probably the last time people don't notice the fractal nature of this game. 

**"Bubble S-curve adoption".**
![](https://steemitimages.com/DQmPg97fPMf7o6savhRFTgi8a9hsECDZ83LZYucfro1oztb/image.png)

Bitcoin is decentralizing transaction storage but centralizing value. Governments have already deployed plans to make sure a couple of coins are held distributed through their respective country. Maybe the most famous case is the recommendation by PBOC officials about holding a small amount of bitcoin, distributed through China. In the event, a trillion dollars marketcap is reached. Here the book by [Ping Xie](https://www.amazon.com/Internet-Finance-China-Introduction-Perspectives/dp/1138195081)
![](https://steemitimages.com/DQmRkjeTbYTbTKQrXffRSx4BbprqmSCRewgL9v4RWccPti6/image.png)

> Your life and the life of everybody around you are in for a cool ride in the next couple of years: Automation, Trillionaires, Disparity of resources and people's usefulness like never before.

`The times, they are a changing.`