I once had a guy try to sell me a 100k in gold. He said in a few years it would rise 300%.  I asked him, "than why would you sell it to me for 100k? All you need to do is hold it, for a few years". He continued on with the sales pitch. So I asked, "how do you earn a living selling gold, Do they pay you commissions in gold or usd?" He was a little agitated, and he responded "I get a commission check and cash it for dollars". I chuckled a little and replied "so you will trade gold for dollars because it will rise in value. Why would you trade gold if you thought it would rise 300% for usd? The same usd that you thought would lose 300%?"  Not long after, the price of gold dropped  900$ like my charts hinted. I still didn't buy it. Not because I didn't want to own some. But because, I thought it would get cheaper.