Bitcoin is looking a little bubbly right now, but I welcome the volatility with open arms as it provides lots of opportunity if one is willing to take it and manage each situation with a rational mind. I'm not a rational person when I trade so I often just strategize and plan long term moves rather than to play short term anomalies in the market. But the most important thing that everyone should remember when playing any game. There is no certainty in any outcome.

<center>
![soap-bubble-2489583_640.jpg](https://steemitimages.com/DQmX9hNmjXqqVsNyCY5iMT1rKYBVwGfMbGLuNL5Q7PBzDr6/soap-bubble-2489583_640.jpg)
<h4>A possibility</h4>
</center>

---

One may question such a post as being a piece of FUD. It's really just U. Uncertainty. But I welcome it and it's one of my best friends. I'm not arguing anything about your behavior. I could care less about whether or not you want to dump money in or out of cryptocurrencies. I'm just here to add perspective and to write a cryptocurrency article that is not a boring technical analysis piece that is used to attract the eyes of my woolen brethren.

I play Bitcoin by feel and recognize uncertainty plays a role. I still have money on the sidelines waiting for the right time to add to my stack. But now is not the right time. For me at least. As much as my emotions would suggest otherwise. The reason for keeping money on the sidelines is that I'm not 100% certain that the price won't crash. In fact, I would say that I have a reasonable degree of certainty that the price will crash at some point in the future. And I reasonably certain that we will have a sizeable correction in the near future too. But no certainty.

But this allows me to enjoy the ride on the sidelines. The price keeps going up and I keep making money. I also have insurance on the sidelines in the case of the bubble crashing. I'll be happy to buy some bitcoin when everyone is preaching the end of cryptocurrencies. Just not now. 

But one may argue that the price of Bitcoin may never come below their current levels and they may be right. There is a significant non-zero chance that that prognostication indeed occurs. But there is also a chance that it doesn't and that's where I look to add to my position. 

The problem with missing out is not a problem. I'm already in the game. One could argue that I'm missing out on potential profits, but they lack any probabilistic perspective. There is a chance that I miss out on profits and there is a chance that I miss out on losses. You point out all the times I'm missing out on profits, but lack the full picture. 

But another counterargument, that of the HODLer. Instead of looking it through the short term optimist's lense, we look at the big picture. A HODLer can say that Bitcoin is higher than it has been at any point in its history. So there is a great chance that even buying now that Bitcoin will continue to make all-time highs in the future. Perhaps a better reason than missing out. A certainty of future profit at some point in time.

But unfortunately the HODLer relies on a finite amount of time series data. And although we are at the highest point and the history shows that buying at all-time highs has not been a mistake to this point, there is always a chance that we might never reach this point in the valuation of bitcoin ever again. I think those odds are low, but they are still there, so I keep my options available.

And then we have technical traders. Let's just say that until they can reliably predict the market that we should ignore most of what they have to say as noise for now. However, one can use uncertainty to gamble as traders often do, if they can tolerate the losses along the way. 

So, that its I guess. I'm preaching the gospel of uncertainty and hoping nobody gets burned by unexpected volatility believing Bitcoin was a sure thing, because it is not. Nothing is. But by recognizing that we are often wrong about how we perceive the future, we can profit even during our mistakes. Or at the very least avoid catastrophic losses.

---

[Image](https://pixabay.com/en/soap-bubble-bitcoin-hand-keep-2489583/)