Absent from your assessment, one main criticism I hear from outside people is how the voting system of Steem is currently rigged in many ways. Shamefully, I cannot disagree.

If a fork happens, that reputation will grow and it will need to be healed.

I think a community fork will address this issue of fairness better than the Tron/Steemit fork (maybe I'm wrong).

Top down approach (Tron/Steemit) vs Grassroots approach (community). Hard to say which is better.

I find your post very well thought through. I can understand the position of all the parties.
The biggest problem in my eyes that none of the parties know what they really want!

- on one hand you see JS who is worried about his investment and doesn't know whether there is a future at all fot his implication in this project.
- then we have a community that speaks with hundreds of voices. Many are ill informed or emotionals. Many have their own interests.

I believe that the first step for the parties would be to define what they really want. Without knowing this how can we negociate together?

Steem needs a protocol for decision making and this shouldn't be left to witnesses alone...

A nice write up, I really appreciated the source for the chart, I fount that to be pretty interesting link, Thank you.

The traffic from India is quite interesting. With the crypto ban removed and exchanges coming back to life again there seems to be an exciting opportunity for Steem to gain deep footing here.

The KR community has a lot of stake here at steem so we just have to continue with talks with either side @jayplayco to make a win-win-win deal other than to result in burning our house down and no one wants it.

The 2 groups have to talk with each other.
It is carzy to think that if justin sun removes his witnesses the community witnesses will HF his stake. Everyone is watching us in a crypto world so if they make it we are dead for sure. 
Will be a nice decission and a win win option if JS remove his witnesses first and than they can talk whats next.
Or make a HF with the 10-10 witnesses so both sides can feel safe and they can start again to talk with each other. 

Few problems I see with your analysis are:

1. You don’t mention that core Steem blockchain engineers resigned from Steemit Inc. So there really is no Steemit Inc engineering team currently.

2. You say at least 30% will move to the new chain? What is that number based on?

3. You are taking potentially false promises of Justin Sun as facts. At this point, I find it hard to believe JS is interested in contributing to Steem development, listing on exchanges, or onboarding, etc.

I appreciate your detailed analysis. We should hope for the best, but at the same time prepare for the worst.

Thank you for ironing out current situation based on how things will unfold in consequential base. People need to think rational here. 👍

I think the key issue or topic to many on Steem is **Decentralization**. Steem is all about Decentralization.  It is not about that money and that is where JS is getting it wrong. 

JS affirming that we should vote for his sock puppet witness, means he doesn't understand what decentralization is all about. 

We might not like all out witnesses but they are there based on community consensus votes and when the community is not happy about anyone of them, they are voted out. And that is the beauty of decentralization.

JS is all about centralization and any thing he is involved with after any split is going to be centralized because he has the power. 

And based on his initial post and other twits after buying over Steemit Inc, what makes you believe he has a future plan for Steem aside swapping it to Tron based token and converting the Dapps that follow him to Tron Dapps. 

Have you read that he offered to sell his stake to theycallmedan at a discount?

The point I am trying to make is that JS likes power, is a crafty fellow based on his interviews and post that I have followed. And doesn't cut across to me as someone I can trust. 

Some of the things he wants changed will cause great damage to the community and to see that his care is about settling his friends (the exchanges) and not the community says it all about what he wants.

I believe, if you are a true believer of decentralization then you'll see that most of your assumptions are not going to pan out the way you figure because it is not about the money, it is about decentralization. And it is not about the race either.

Nah. What happens is that you get dumped on by Justin because he has no interest in a mangled chain with no users and no dapps following.

He will dump, your chain will die and all of us rest will fork not only Steemit. Inc stake but also all stake that supported his takeover. 
The Koreans will lose everything.

@jayplayco. I think steemworld.org would be a better metric. I'm not sure what that looks like, but I think it would encompass a lot more users. 

I appreciate that you tried to be objective, but your bias does come through. You seem to focus on mostly positive aspects for a Justin Sun owned blockchain and mostly negative for a non-justinsun owned blockchain. What are the negatives you see happening with the centralized blockchain and what are the positives you see with a decentralized blockchain?

Do you support a move of the Steem blockchain to tron as was announced by Tron after the purchase?![Y2iXpRRkNSnseh3NuL6KUBitJTXrc5JycXrEqQQrQnfy8.jpeg](https://files.steempeak.com/file/steempeak/moeknows/DZObXJVY-Y2iXpRRkNSnseh3NuL6KUBitJTXrc5JycXrEqQQrQnfy8.jpeg)

Thanks @jayplayco, a great analysis and prediction for the FORK. 

Although I predicted that a FORK is NOT avoidable upon Steemit Inc's acquisition around one month ago, and the competition in the future will happens among Tron-Steem, Steem Classic and EOS Voice, in my post [失名器天下三分，拾真魂同结一心 | 在Tron收购Steemit之后](https://steemblog.github.io/@robertyan/or-tron-steemit/), in the reality, I would like to try the best to let us go against that ending. 

In another word, we need to re-unite the community and stakeholders. We all know this has been very challenging, but we still need to take actions. Korean community have done a very great job for that already. Instead of focusing on the different opinions, we may focus more on the common ground:

1. **Vision**: It's actually a great time to retrospect what's the true vision and value of Steem itself. If SMT is the thing everybody wants, then make it. If we want to `Tokenizing the Web`, then remove the road blocks such as poor signup experience. 
2. **Threats**: We should not ignore the outer threats including Voice, though in its baby time. When Steem communities are fighting here, other forces are growing. Have we heard about how the Voice (beta) community react to these dramas?
3. **Money**: The community have shared investment benefits (the STEEM price at least), and everybody wants to gain more. A fork is really hard to be economically beneficial for its followers (maybe good for seldom in the forked chain, but not for the majority). 

I don't have concrete plan about how to move on yet. At least one thing I'll work on is to call for the community forces to help with the SMT build, testing and release. 

Finally I believe we need wisdom to go through the hard time, and a new era will arrive anyway.

Here due to a resteem from @abitcoinskeptic.  Thank you for writing up your perspective on this mess we find ourselves in here on our Steem blockchain @jayplayco.  Seems pretty even-handed to me.  As an investor first, I particularly appreciate you mentioning the costs associated with the Steem community starting from scratch, on a new blockchain.  I think that is poorly understood and, as a direct result, likely underestimated.

On this ...

> *"Also the witnesses came to a conclusion that it is better to let a representative speak for all, then having everybody their individual sayings to be able to move forward."*

... I have not heard of the witnesses selecting a representative to speak for them.  Would you please let me know who this is or provide me a link to where you learned this?

Meanwhile, back at "[the OK Corral](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gunfight_at_the_O.K._Corral)", we have this:

<p><center><img src="https://steemitimages.com/700x0/https://files.steempeak.com/file/steempeak/roleerob/fxLDUlFG-image.png"></center></p>
<p><center><sub>@hkdev404 transfers in another "whale-sized" block of Steem - <a href="https://steemd.com/tx/22fb4c8c9a63850885f5a88f4505cb73d40e4149" target="_blank">2020-03-09 @ 05:53:45 (UTC)</a></sub></center></p><br>

By failing to lead with trust, the cost to everyone involved increased.  In the ensuing see-saw battle back and forth, I guess we'll find out who wants it the most.  By the only measure which counts ...

thank you sharing