Any fool can make a million dollars or more by buying a lottery ticket. The odds of winning any amount at the lottery hovers around 1/40 while the odds of winning the jackpot are around 1/200,000,000. The ticket is only a dollar and you stand to lose 100% of your capital ($1) while you stand to win anywhere between $1 and $20 Million, sometimes more. So the risk profile for this strategy is (-100%,+2,000,000,000%) with odds (1/40-1/200,000,000). If you buy two tickets every week for 5 years, it will cost you 2 x 52 x 5=$520. Overall, your odds of making at least a million dollar are still slim: (The odds of making at least 1 million dollar with 1 ticket is not much different from winning the jackpot). 2 x 52 x 5 x (1/200,000,000) = 1/384,615. This is assuming you don't buy more than 2 tickets every week even if you win $500 one day. If you decide to re-invest that $500, the odds will be slightly higher but not by much. At one end of the spectrum, you could buy 3 tickets every week for the rest of the 5 years, increasing your odds by a tiny amount. At the other end of the spectrum you could buy 500 extra tickets for a single drawing to increase your odds to 1/400,000 once. This is interesting because winning $500 is within the 1/500 odds at each drawing, so within 5 years, it's likely you might get $500 at least once. Notice that by buying all these extra tickets, you're not even raising your odds to the overall odds 1/384000 over 5 years. The other obvious strategy is to buy $500 tickets once and play those 1/400,000 on a single drawing. If you lose, you're broke and you can't play anymore. This discussion is helpful because it highlights four very distinct aspects of investing: 1- How much of your capital is at risk at any time. 2- The strategies you can use when you have some returns. 3- The overall odds of the game 4- How locked-in you are to those odd. Touching those points, lottery-investing is a pretty sorry game because your capital is split between what you have left over in cash, and what is 100% at-risk, the strategies when you have winnings don't improve your odds by much because the odds are fixed and tiny. Tomorrow we'll talk about Craps.
author | jdbertron |
---|---|
permlink | how-hard-is-it-going-to-be |
category | finance |
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voter | weight | wgt% | rshares | pct | time |
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ubg | 0 | 31,122,229,015 | 100% | ||
jdbertron | 0 | 54,352,505 | 100% |
I love craps!....and blackjack too!
author | mindhunter |
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permlink | re-jdbertron-how-hard-is-it-going-to-be-20160905t201435355z |
category | finance |
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odds of meeting a butterfly ──████─────────────────────────────████ ───██████────────░█───█░────────██████ ────██░▓████─────██───██─────████▓░██ ─────██░░░▓███─────█─█─────███▓░░░██ ─────██░░░░░▓███───█─█───███▓░░░░░██ ──────██░░░░░░▓██──███──██▓░░░░░░██ ──────██░░░░░░░▓███─█─██▓░░░░░░░░██ ─────██░░░░░░░░░░▓█████▓░░░░░░░░░░██ ─────██░░░░░░░░░░░▓███▓░░░░░░░░░░░██ ─────█████████▒░░░░▓█▓░░░░▒█████████ ───────█████████▒░░▒█▒░░▒█████████ ────███░░░░░░░░██░░▓█▓░░██░░░░░░░░███ ─────███░░░░░░░░░░░███░░░░░░░░░░░███ ───────██░░░░░░░░░▓███▓░░░░░░░░░██ ────────██░░░░░░░▓█████▓░░░░░░░██ ────────██░░░░▓████─█─████▓░░░░██ ─────────██░▓███────█────███▓░██ ─────────██████───────────██████ ──────────████─────────────████ ∞/∞
author | ubg |
---|---|
permlink | re-jdbertron-how-hard-is-it-going-to-be-20160905t202026228z |
category | finance |
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