¨Remember that Steempower provides you with a 90% P.A¨
thats not 100% true. yes you get 90% steem on your steam power. but also the steem supply is increasing 100% P.A. If the demand of steempower is not increasing you can expect the steem price to halve each year. thankfully we can expect that the demand of steem will increase if new users come in that create good content :)

>Remember that Steempower provides you with a 90% P.A. interest, which is better than any bank you can find.

Yeah, but, my Steempower has increased over the past few weeks but my wallet's "estimated value" has decreased. It sure doesn't feel like I'm gaining interest. I'm gonna have to hope that the price of Steem rises over the next year/month to make my 2-year-long Steempower withdraw even worth it.

>If you invest in Steempower now, you'll cashout the full amount in exactly 2 years. 

So if I have $2K worth of steempower and I cashout now, do I get the whole $2K by the end of 2 years? What if the price of steem rises or decreases while I'm powering down over the 2 years, will that affect how much I get back? Does the interest still accure on my steempower as I power down?

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Nice article! I made a post about it yesterday, too. 
It's called the cycle of hype:
https://steemit.com/steemit/@febird/mesdames-et-messieurs-i-proudly-present-the-cycle-of-hype-to-you

Steem is great but we really need stronger interface. There are some great sites like @jesta and his steemstats.com. I like that you urge people to plug in for the long run. With a two year vest you sort of have to look longer  range. https://steemit.com/steemit/@iamwne/steemit-posting-report

Hi! This post has a <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flesch%E2%80%93Kincaid_readability_tests">Flesch-Kincaid</a> grade level of 4.4 and reading ease of 84%. This puts the writing level on par with Ernest Hemingway and Donald Trump.

Spot on! I mean, there's always a risk that Steem is a failure, the model is unsustainable etc. But if all goes well, and users start registering, the value will skyrocket. 

It's already picking up today.

upvoted

Slow and steady certainly wins the race!! Thanks for the post!!

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Good post! I been also thinking a lot about this subject the last few days, and indeed the fundamentals are still good and when this remains, one day the price have to follow the fundamentals and will go up. If you want to buy more Steem, i shouldn't do it now, but better wait till there are some upside technical indications. An important support is just broken, so the price may go some lower first. If you own Steem, don't sell it now, because then you take your loss. Just try to increase the AMOUNT of Steem you have by curating or getting interest till the price rises again.

Yes I just see the price is picking up again. Lets keep it going!

Great post!

@jholdsworthy - If this is what you believe then why are you powering down??

1-  while powering down you receive 104 payments. meaning a payment each week and not a full payment 2 years from now.
2- I think that the price of STEEM is like any crpto- currency bound to supply and demand. If we look at the demand part then the more people flock in and use Steemit the demand will rise. It's a safe bet that we can see high demands. 
As for the supply part it's kinda tricky because the STEEM that a created are in the form of SP of about 800 per minute meaning and also users can power down or power up to or from STEEM. meaning that the supply side is very hard to predict. The incentives of the are working behind the scenes are that 90% of the supply will be held in SP.
here is a quote from the whitepaper: 
"The price of a digital commodity, like STEEM, is driven by both supply and demand. If new STEEM is allocated to those who are holding long-term then the increase in supply is offset
by the corresponding demand to hold. The impact of this change in supply is postponed
until a future date when the long-term holder decides to sell. The sell pressure is then
distributed over 2 years.
When a long-term holder decides to exit, the supply of STEEM on the market will increase
and push the price down. This downward pressure is countered when a new long-term
holder decides to buy up the STEEM and convert it back into SP. We can therefore conclude
that the price will mostly be impacted by a change in demand for holding STEEM long-term."

For now we don't know if the incentives holds true, back at May 98% of STEEM were in SP. But many things can change. There can also be a whale who start to power down causing a flood of STEEM to the market. this whale needs to be countered by other long term holders.

The comment is long, but I tried to show people how they should approach analyzing the STEEM price, it's not that easy to predict.

Time to buy a little. :D

I just wrote my perspective on Steem possibilities as an experiement in wealth distribution.  Even if it goes up, we must deal with the realities of wealth/power distribution, and our abilities to write.

I have been thinking this for the last couple days. Steem has huge potential and I think getting scared a small price drop is letting emotions contol your decisions a little too much. Steem will likely keep growing bigger and bigger. Great analysis.