create account

the first million is always the hardest - good advice is to grab it, which a lot of the whales are doing and this helps STEEM long term by jl777

View this thread on: hive.blogpeakd.comecency.com
· @jl777 ·
$43.83
the first million is always the hardest - good advice is to grab it, which a lot of the whales are doing and this helps STEEM long term
There is a lot of whale power down inventory that is hitting the markets and this creates a downward pressure on the price. Considering the rapid growth in userbase and the many internet celebrities that are now posting, it would seem that the price should be rising. However simple supply/demand imbalance creates an artificially low price.

Put yourself in the whale's shoes. You have a paper wealth of a million dollars+ and if this is your first million, good advice is to grab it while you can. Most people will never get a chance to bank that much money. So you might envy them, but you cant blame them. And what this does is push the price of STEEM down. Hard to say how much, but could be 2x or even 3x, but I think this is a good thing as if the whales didnt sell then the STEEM would stay too concentrated in small number of people and the more people who have invested in STEEM, the better in the long run.

Also, this whale powerdown inventory cannot last forever. In fact, 2 years is all that it can last and my guess is that a lot of the whales will stop their powerdown well before they convert all their steem power. What this means is that over the next 2 years, the amount of available STEEM from the whale powerdown will gradually disappear.

And once this onetime whale sale is done, there really cant be any more such inventory. So, in the short term the STEEM price may stay around here, maybe drop, maybe go up. The steem power will still hold its value in BTC though, so during this early period I am putting most all my STEEM into steem power: 5.825 STEEM vs 30,360.695 STEEM

Over the next two years there is the combined effect of the userbase growth and reduction of whale sale and reduction of the first year 300% inflation, so it is quite likely that STEEM price will actually go up over the 2 year timeframe. My bet is that powering down in 2 years will lead to a much better overall result than powering down now, but dont tell the whales that! we need that cheap STEEM to be distributed

James

I am testing the graphic just to see if it works, it has nothing to do with this post
http://www.oxpal.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/MS1_design03_big.jpg
πŸ‘  , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , and 36 others
properties (23)
authorjl777
permlinkthe-first-million-is-always-the-hardest-good-advice-is-to-grab-it-which-a-lot-of-the-whales-are-doing-and-this-helps-steem-long
categorysteemit
json_metadata{"tags":["steemit","steem","mathematics","money","trading"],"image":["http://www.oxpal.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/MS1_design03_big.jpg"]}
created2016-08-20 07:48:15
last_update2016-08-20 07:48:15
depth0
children14
last_payout2016-09-20 10:41:00
cashout_time1969-12-31 23:59:59
total_payout_value34.497 HBD
curator_payout_value9.335 HBD
pending_payout_value0.000 HBD
promoted0.000 HBD
body_length2,182
author_reputation14,988,697,980,664
root_title"the first million is always the hardest - good advice is to grab it, which a lot of the whales are doing and this helps STEEM long term"
beneficiaries[]
max_accepted_payout1,000,000.000 HBD
percent_hbd10,000
post_id902,447
net_rshares15,872,356,505,476
author_curate_reward""
vote details (100)
@clayop ·
Thanks for the great post. In my expectation, powering down will continue til `total_vesting_fund_steem` reaches 90% (currently it is around 96%). This may happen in 6 months.
properties (22)
authorclayop
permlinkre-jl777-the-first-million-is-always-the-hardest-good-advice-is-to-grab-it-which-a-lot-of-the-whales-are-doing-and-this-helps-steem-long-20160820t084119103z
categorysteemit
json_metadata{"tags":["steemit"]}
created2016-08-20 08:41:24
last_update2016-08-20 08:41:24
depth1
children0
last_payout2016-09-20 10:41:00
cashout_time1969-12-31 23:59:59
total_payout_value0.000 HBD
curator_payout_value0.000 HBD
pending_payout_value0.000 HBD
promoted0.000 HBD
body_length175
author_reputation270,845,899,918,618
root_title"the first million is always the hardest - good advice is to grab it, which a lot of the whales are doing and this helps STEEM long term"
beneficiaries[]
max_accepted_payout1,000,000.000 HBD
percent_hbd10,000
post_id902,847
net_rshares0
@cryptohead ·
Good point ... as always. :)

Did you abandon all your NXT projects and developments?

I got out of NXT about a year ago and got into DASH. I could not be happier with the decision as my assets multiplied several fold,  despite the fact that I still think NXT could have a promising future.
properties (22)
authorcryptohead
permlinkre-jl777-the-first-million-is-always-the-hardest-good-advice-is-to-grab-it-which-a-lot-of-the-whales-are-doing-and-this-helps-steem-long-20160820t105905424z
categorysteemit
json_metadata{"tags":["steemit"]}
created2016-08-20 10:59:00
last_update2016-08-20 10:59:00
depth1
children2
last_payout2016-09-20 10:41:00
cashout_time1969-12-31 23:59:59
total_payout_value0.000 HBD
curator_payout_value0.000 HBD
pending_payout_value0.000 HBD
promoted0.000 HBD
body_length290
author_reputation607,929,583,052
root_title"the first million is always the hardest - good advice is to grab it, which a lot of the whales are doing and this helps STEEM long term"
beneficiaries[]
max_accepted_payout1,000,000.000 HBD
percent_hbd10,000
post_id903,958
net_rshares0
@jl777 ·
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1372879.0 I had a parting of ways with NXT, I just couldnt continue contributing to  dictatorship. However my SuperNET project is still very active http://www.digitalcatallaxy.com/report2015.html

And I am finishing up the first release of iguana: https://bitco.in/forum/forums/iguana.23/

Anyway, all my predictions about what would happen to NXT has happened so far, but I will make sure to protect all the investors.
πŸ‘  
properties (23)
authorjl777
permlinkre-cryptohead-re-jl777-the-first-million-is-always-the-hardest-good-advice-is-to-grab-it-which-a-lot-of-the-whales-are-doing-and-this-helps-steem-long-20160820t121559391z
categorysteemit
json_metadata{"tags":["steemit"],"links":["https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1372879.0"]}
created2016-08-20 12:16:00
last_update2016-08-20 12:16:00
depth2
children1
last_payout2016-09-20 10:41:00
cashout_time1969-12-31 23:59:59
total_payout_value0.000 HBD
curator_payout_value0.000 HBD
pending_payout_value0.000 HBD
promoted0.000 HBD
body_length459
author_reputation14,988,697,980,664
root_title"the first million is always the hardest - good advice is to grab it, which a lot of the whales are doing and this helps STEEM long term"
beneficiaries[]
max_accepted_payout1,000,000.000 HBD
percent_hbd10,000
post_id904,644
net_rshares2,177,642,624
author_curate_reward""
vote details (1)
@cryptohead ·
Thanks for the update.
I will study the Iguana project
Regards
properties (22)
authorcryptohead
permlinkre-jl777-re-cryptohead-re-jl777-the-first-million-is-always-the-hardest-good-advice-is-to-grab-it-which-a-lot-of-the-whales-are-doing-and-this-helps-steem-long-20160821t024249836z
categorysteemit
json_metadata{"tags":["steemit"]}
created2016-08-21 02:42:51
last_update2016-08-21 02:42:51
depth3
children0
last_payout2016-09-20 10:41:00
cashout_time1969-12-31 23:59:59
total_payout_value0.000 HBD
curator_payout_value0.000 HBD
pending_payout_value0.000 HBD
promoted0.000 HBD
body_length62
author_reputation607,929,583,052
root_title"the first million is always the hardest - good advice is to grab it, which a lot of the whales are doing and this helps STEEM long term"
beneficiaries[]
max_accepted_payout1,000,000.000 HBD
percent_hbd10,000
post_id915,168
net_rshares0
@cuckoo ·
First of all we need to prolong the exposure of the posts to the community or else Steem will degrade into a cockroach race for numbers with no respect for content quality at all.
Here is my suggestion for [the solution](https://steemit.com/steemit/@cuckoo/future-of-steem-five-questions-and-one-solution) to this grave problem.
properties (22)
authorcuckoo
permlinkre-jl777-the-first-million-is-always-the-hardest-good-advice-is-to-grab-it-which-a-lot-of-the-whales-are-doing-and-this-helps-steem-long-20160820t100439433z
categorysteemit
json_metadata{"tags":["steemit"],"links":["https://steemit.com/steemit/@cuckoo/future-of-steem-five-questions-and-one-solution"]}
created2016-08-20 10:04:39
last_update2016-08-20 10:04:39
depth1
children1
last_payout2016-09-20 10:41:00
cashout_time1969-12-31 23:59:59
total_payout_value0.000 HBD
curator_payout_value0.000 HBD
pending_payout_value0.000 HBD
promoted0.000 HBD
body_length328
author_reputation550,621,144,979
root_title"the first million is always the hardest - good advice is to grab it, which a lot of the whales are doing and this helps STEEM long term"
beneficiaries[]
max_accepted_payout1,000,000.000 HBD
percent_hbd10,000
post_id903,565
net_rshares0
@jl777 ·
there is 30 day trending, but people need to pick very specific categories that are most applicable to get the longest life
properties (22)
authorjl777
permlinkre-cuckoo-re-jl777-the-first-million-is-always-the-hardest-good-advice-is-to-grab-it-which-a-lot-of-the-whales-are-doing-and-this-helps-steem-long-20160820t130143416z
categorysteemit
json_metadata{"tags":["steemit"]}
created2016-08-20 13:01:42
last_update2016-08-20 13:01:42
depth2
children0
last_payout2016-09-20 10:41:00
cashout_time1969-12-31 23:59:59
total_payout_value0.000 HBD
curator_payout_value0.000 HBD
pending_payout_value0.000 HBD
promoted0.000 HBD
body_length123
author_reputation14,988,697,980,664
root_title"the first million is always the hardest - good advice is to grab it, which a lot of the whales are doing and this helps STEEM long term"
beneficiaries[]
max_accepted_payout1,000,000.000 HBD
percent_hbd10,000
post_id905,056
net_rshares0
@hilarski ·
Sure they will power down but that gives content producers a chance to power up. We will find equilibrium.
https://media.giphy.com/media/BmWXKNQPpzyVi/giphy.gif
properties (22)
authorhilarski
permlinkre-jl777-the-first-million-is-always-the-hardest-good-advice-is-to-grab-it-which-a-lot-of-the-whales-are-doing-and-this-helps-steem-long-20160820t150221499z
categorysteemit
json_metadata{"tags":["steemit"],"image":["https://media.giphy.com/media/BmWXKNQPpzyVi/giphy.gif"]}
created2016-08-20 15:02:21
last_update2016-08-20 15:02:21
depth1
children0
last_payout2016-09-20 10:41:00
cashout_time1969-12-31 23:59:59
total_payout_value0.000 HBD
curator_payout_value0.000 HBD
pending_payout_value0.000 HBD
promoted0.000 HBD
body_length160
author_reputation488,873,580,141,533
root_title"the first million is always the hardest - good advice is to grab it, which a lot of the whales are doing and this helps STEEM long term"
beneficiaries[]
max_accepted_payout1,000,000.000 HBD
percent_hbd10,000
post_id906,413
net_rshares0
@juvyjabian ·
Lets hope for a better steemit community in the years to come.
properties (22)
authorjuvyjabian
permlinkre-jl777-the-first-million-is-always-the-hardest-good-advice-is-to-grab-it-which-a-lot-of-the-whales-are-doing-and-this-helps-steem-long-20160820t094424182z
categorysteemit
json_metadata{"tags":["steemit"]}
created2016-08-20 08:53:54
last_update2016-08-20 08:53:54
depth1
children0
last_payout2016-09-20 10:41:00
cashout_time1969-12-31 23:59:59
total_payout_value0.000 HBD
curator_payout_value0.000 HBD
pending_payout_value0.000 HBD
promoted0.000 HBD
body_length62
author_reputation185,700,092,637,158
root_title"the first million is always the hardest - good advice is to grab it, which a lot of the whales are doing and this helps STEEM long term"
beneficiaries[]
max_accepted_payout1,000,000.000 HBD
percent_hbd10,000
post_id902,967
net_rshares0
@lsc9999 ·
λ©‹μ°Œμ„Έμš”~
properties (22)
authorlsc9999
permlinkre-jl777-the-first-million-is-always-the-hardest-good-advice-is-to-grab-it-which-a-lot-of-the-whales-are-doing-and-this-helps-steem-long-20160820t085052095z
categorysteemit
json_metadata{"tags":["steemit"]}
created2016-08-20 08:50:54
last_update2016-08-20 08:50:54
depth1
children0
last_payout2016-09-20 10:41:00
cashout_time1969-12-31 23:59:59
total_payout_value0.000 HBD
curator_payout_value0.000 HBD
pending_payout_value0.000 HBD
promoted0.000 HBD
body_length5
author_reputation184,642,172,325
root_title"the first million is always the hardest - good advice is to grab it, which a lot of the whales are doing and this helps STEEM long term"
beneficiaries[]
max_accepted_payout1,000,000.000 HBD
percent_hbd10,000
post_id902,937
net_rshares0
@nxtblg ·
Thanks for giving us a solid long-term view, with common sense added. 

There's another reason for the "grab it while you can" effect: STEEM's success has been sudden, and sudden success reinforces "too good to be true" skepticism.  I can see a level-headed person who got >$1000 in Steem dollars saying to himself, "Well, I won the lottery; I'd better cash in my scratch ticket. " 

"won the lottery" is the go-to analogy for a sudden financial windfall. Not surprising that sensible folks act accordingly. 

Myself, I've put my rewards into more STEEM: i.e., I've used them to power up. But then again, I'm something of a fool ;)
properties (22)
authornxtblg
permlinkre-jl777-the-first-million-is-always-the-hardest-good-advice-is-to-grab-it-which-a-lot-of-the-whales-are-doing-and-this-helps-steem-long-20160820t203644933z
categorysteemit
json_metadata{"tags":["steemit"]}
created2016-08-20 20:36:30
last_update2016-08-20 20:36:30
depth1
children0
last_payout2016-09-20 10:41:00
cashout_time1969-12-31 23:59:59
total_payout_value0.000 HBD
curator_payout_value0.000 HBD
pending_payout_value0.000 HBD
promoted0.000 HBD
body_length631
author_reputation14,581,363,059,419
root_title"the first million is always the hardest - good advice is to grab it, which a lot of the whales are doing and this helps STEEM long term"
beneficiaries[]
max_accepted_payout1,000,000.000 HBD
percent_hbd10,000
post_id910,987
net_rshares0
@profitgenerator · (edited)
Interesting article jl777, I remember you from the NXT forums, I used to be an investor 1 year ago.

-------------

I also think that the inflation is not a concern, it will trickle down slower given that it takes 2 years to power down, and they might not all cashout, they can keep the money in Steem Dollar, which does not add to inflation, but it's more liquid than SP.

I have my theory too:
https://steemit.com/steemit/@profitgenerator/steem-inflation-doesn-t-decrease-steem-price-immediately
properties (22)
authorprofitgenerator
permlinkre-jl777-the-first-million-is-always-the-hardest-good-advice-is-to-grab-it-which-a-lot-of-the-whales-are-doing-and-this-helps-steem-long-20160820t080446600z
categorysteemit
json_metadata{"tags":["steemit"],"links":["https://steemit.com/steemit/@profitgenerator/steem-inflation-doesn-t-decrease-steem-price-immediately"]}
created2016-08-20 08:04:48
last_update2016-08-20 08:05:57
depth1
children0
last_payout2016-09-20 10:41:00
cashout_time1969-12-31 23:59:59
total_payout_value0.000 HBD
curator_payout_value0.000 HBD
pending_payout_value0.000 HBD
promoted0.000 HBD
body_length497
author_reputation68,549,319,463,075
root_title"the first million is always the hardest - good advice is to grab it, which a lot of the whales are doing and this helps STEEM long term"
beneficiaries[]
max_accepted_payout1,000,000.000 HBD
percent_hbd10,000
post_id902,571
net_rshares0
@vi1son ·
I think cheap Steem is good for now. But soon the need for new users who want to make up the power, balanced whales power down. And the price will go up.
properties (22)
authorvi1son
permlinkre-jl777-the-first-million-is-always-the-hardest-good-advice-is-to-grab-it-which-a-lot-of-the-whales-are-doing-and-this-helps-steem-long-20160820t081007140z
categorysteemit
json_metadata{"tags":["steemit"]}
created2016-08-20 08:10:06
last_update2016-08-20 08:10:06
depth1
children0
last_payout2016-09-20 10:41:00
cashout_time1969-12-31 23:59:59
total_payout_value0.000 HBD
curator_payout_value0.000 HBD
pending_payout_value0.000 HBD
promoted0.000 HBD
body_length153
author_reputation6,286,810,078,777
root_title"the first million is always the hardest - good advice is to grab it, which a lot of the whales are doing and this helps STEEM long term"
beneficiaries[]
max_accepted_payout1,000,000.000 HBD
percent_hbd10,000
post_id902,610
net_rshares0
@zer0sum ·
"Considering the rapid growth in userbase..."

Actually, there has been a 33% contraction in (posts + replies + edits/day) in the last 3 weeks 27,000/day to 18,000/day.  This probably the best metric. Users active last 24 hours is  flat and bounces around between 5,000 to 7,000 users/day (also a good metric). 

https://steemle.com/charts.php?charts=posts
https://steemd.com/distribution

This is happening while a lot of money is being given away. So by now it should be obvious Steemit is not Reddit and must focus on becoming the crypto version of Seeking Alpha. Then you expand into the broad financial markets and challenge Seeking Alpha. It can be done, but is there any roadmap?
πŸ‘  
properties (23)
authorzer0sum
permlinkre-jl777-the-first-million-is-always-the-hardest-good-advice-is-to-grab-it-which-a-lot-of-the-whales-are-doing-and-this-helps-steem-long-20160820t133308345z
categorysteemit
json_metadata{"tags":["steemit"],"links":["https://steemle.com/charts.php?charts=posts"]}
created2016-08-20 13:33:03
last_update2016-08-20 13:33:03
depth1
children1
last_payout2016-09-20 10:41:00
cashout_time1969-12-31 23:59:59
total_payout_value0.000 HBD
curator_payout_value0.000 HBD
pending_payout_value0.000 HBD
promoted0.000 HBD
body_length686
author_reputation1,519,557,237,463
root_title"the first million is always the hardest - good advice is to grab it, which a lot of the whales are doing and this helps STEEM long term"
beneficiaries[]
max_accepted_payout1,000,000.000 HBD
percent_hbd10,000
post_id905,328
net_rshares18,553,812,490
author_curate_reward""
vote details (1)
@jl777 ·
a lot of bots traffic before that is reduced
weekend usage is lower
7 day average seems the most relevant and I look at the minnows/dolphins level as the newbies are many, but most dont become active contributors.
also qualitatively, we now get a lot of recognized authors posting regularly, which appears in the stats as +1, but has disproportionate effect
properties (22)
authorjl777
permlinkre-zer0sum-re-jl777-the-first-million-is-always-the-hardest-good-advice-is-to-grab-it-which-a-lot-of-the-whales-are-doing-and-this-helps-steem-long-20160820t143212189z
categorysteemit
json_metadata{"tags":["steemit"]}
created2016-08-20 14:32:12
last_update2016-08-20 14:32:12
depth2
children0
last_payout2016-09-20 10:41:00
cashout_time1969-12-31 23:59:59
total_payout_value0.000 HBD
curator_payout_value0.000 HBD
pending_payout_value0.000 HBD
promoted0.000 HBD
body_length357
author_reputation14,988,697,980,664
root_title"the first million is always the hardest - good advice is to grab it, which a lot of the whales are doing and this helps STEEM long term"
beneficiaries[]
max_accepted_payout1,000,000.000 HBD
percent_hbd10,000
post_id906,011
net_rshares0