# <center> Welcome to My Blog!  </center>
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## Urban Dictionary Word of the Day:
#### Nutflix
A movie rentals-by-mail service for squirrels



squirrel#1: Have you rented Over The Hedge yet?
 squirrel#2: No, but I'll get it off Nutflix and watch it on nut inside.
 squirrel#2: But there's portable nut! You can watch nut outside!

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# <center> ====== Technical Analysis is Influenced by Cognitive Bias   ==== </center>

A few days ago, I talked with @lifestonetrading about technical analysis and how it applies to Bitcoin. He is a strong believer that Technical Analysis is mostly crap and following it will lead you into losing money. Essentially, the times it is correct blinds you to the times they are wrong. This is a stance that @dougpolkcrypto advocates as well. I would argue that it has some validity... for the *future*. 


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Whereas I usually agree that almost all TA is crap, I would argue that there is a valid point to be made for OG Cryptos TA for a few reasons that I don't think I have enough time to get into all of them at the moment but I will try with the remainder 8 minutes of my break.



# 1. Size of crypto investors

Many OG Cryptos admit that as soon as Wall Street and Main Street investors enter the space, TA will be thrown out the window. Until then, the market is dominated by what you could generalize as two groups of people. OG and Newcomers. OGs have MUCH more crypto than the rest which allows them to dictate the market, to an extent. This means that if they place their bids those are the walls. Their bids / calls will be the walls for people to reach. Anyone trading in between are not whales and thus they drive the whales' power by the fact that they will drive the market in between the walls placed. No matter how much demand there is, walls can place supply stops.

# 2. OGs back up their claims.

If you see OGs making calls, you notice they don't often make them. That is because the fewer calls they make, the more likely they are to be right and thus the more likely they are to have a reputation for being right (if you need an example of reputation driving prices, just look at McCafee shills)

# 3. When OGs back up their claims they REALLY back them up

Even if we boil it down to simple supply and demand, then what drives demand? More investors. Where do investors come from? From seeing others succeed in the space. So, when OGs make calls, they pump the shit out of the coins. This is no more evident than in how Richard Heart went on a long ass BTC pump and going on mainstream news networks, podcasts, and conferences. BTC is a HEAVY coin to try lift and to lift it to $25K needed a lot of huge pumps to overcome the "it's just a bubble" criticisms. When he called $25K he knew he would have to pump the crap out of it and he did.

So, yes, TA is sort of BS but also not at the same time. It's an unnatural analysis of market trends done by people that influence the market trends. It's a self-affirming prophecy. It's like a basketball player saying that a special kind of Nike's improve jump height and then people buy it and suddenly jump higher from the increased confidence from thinking they will (really bad analogy, but you get what I mean)




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# Thanks For Stopping By!
# As You Leave, Enjoy This Closing Video!
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<center><sup>Bones - HolySmokes
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