Based on History, we should probably trust this Break-Out in Bitcoin by jrcornel

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hive-167922 · @jrcornel · Jan 29 '21

$14.69

Based on History, we should probably trust this Break-Out in Bitcoin

# Should we trust the current break-out in Bitcoin prices?

Bitcoin is breaking out, but should we trust the breakout or are we due for a pullback shortly after sending us back to where we came from?

Bitcoin recently broke out of its descending triangle pattern to the upside, which shouldn't come as too much surprise for those following my blog and seeing how closely we have been following past patterns.

Here you can see the clean breakout of the descending triangle on the daily chart:

![image.png](https://images.hive.blog/DQmUPCyMWcKUwS7oKHTeWdf4M8Z11nTtcrgswVMs5HwytZm/image.png)

(Source: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=BITSTAMP%3ABTCUSD)

However, it hasn't escaped my eye that the breakout isn't quite as strong as I would have liked to see, at least not yet.

It's given up a major chunk of the initial surge that broke the triangle pattern and seems to be giving back more of the gains as the minutes tick by.

This is likely in part being driven to the carnage going on in Wall Street right now as it is seeing one of its biggest drops in months today due to all the uncertainty going on surrounding GameStop and the potential collateral damage that may or many not be coming.

# History says we should trust this breakout...

Based on what we saw back in 2017, we should probably be trusting this breakout.

Back in 2017, there were 5 dips of roughly 30% during the main portion of the post halving bull market.

And these dips, lasted on average, roughly 3 weeks in time.

More on those stats can be seen here btw:

https://hive.blog/hive-167922/@jrcornel/in-2017-the-average-pullback-during-the-bull-market-was-roughly-3-weeks-long

https://hive.blog/hive-167922/@jrcornel/on-average-bitcoin-surges-153-after-correcting-by-30-during-the-last-bull-market

The clearest picture of those metrics can be seen on this chart:

![image.png](https://images.hive.blog/DQmVZuUvoeAUUgRhBPvxTrFrHVrJnKnBUdgh9qgXSBFMmJo/image.png)

(Source: https://hive.blog/hive-167922/@jrcornel/on-average-bitcoin-surges-153-after-correcting-by-30-during-the-last-bull-market)

Well, it just so happens that this recent pullback dipped just over 30% and it has lasted roughly 3 weeks in duration.

I'm no math mathematician, but I am seeing a remarkably similar pattern right now.

If history does go on to repeat here, we would expect to see at least a 100% gain off of those pullback lows around $29k.

That means our target coming out of this dip is somewhere up around $60k.

Time will tell if we continue to follow these patterns, but so far so good.

Stay informed my friends.

-Doc

Posted Using [LeoFinance <sup>Beta</sup>](https://leofinance.io/@jrcornel/based-on-history-we-should-probably-trust-this-break-out-in-bitcoin)

👍 leo.voter, jrcornel, jphamer1, cryptographic, blockops, neoxian, usainvote, yabapmatt, onealfa, hodlcommunity, znnuksfe, brian.rrr, coininstant, nautilus-up, glastar, fem-of-war, vlemon, bigram13, dcityrewards, boatymcboatface, nulledgh0st, ctime, netaterra, vikisecrets, ezzy, dera123, sift666, planter, daveks, jaybird, aaa-winner, teammo, tattoodjay, nnaraoh, anasz, emrebeyler, exyle, uwelang, justyy, sam99, kingscrown, yameen, janaveda, fw206, someguy123, jskitty, pele23, drax, theshell, sharkleo, goldkey, benedict08, merlin7, hykss.leo, engrave, promobot, gerber, pavonj, xawi, kendewitt, polish.hive, steem.leo, activeblog, dylanhobalart, and 289 others

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@bozz · Jan 29 '21

I kind of agree, this morning I was thinking we might actually see $40k again today and now it looks like it is pulling back a little bit again.  Down in the $34k to $35k range.  Of course the day is far from over.  As always I enjoy and value your analysis!

Posted Using [LeoFinance <sup>Beta</sup>](https://leofinance.io/@bozz/re-jrcornel-2qsjn6)

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@jrcornel · Jan 29 '21

While it took about 3 weeks on average to bottom, it took roughly 4-6 weeks in most cases to make new highs from those lows. So, when I say the breakout will likely lead to new highs, I mean over the coming weeks, not straight away.

👍 bozz

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@bozz · Jan 29 '21

Haha, okay thanks.  If you haven't figured it out yet, I am a bit impatient!  

Posted Using [LeoFinance <sup>Beta</sup>](https://leofinance.io/@bozz/re-jrcornel-3qhrbf)

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1 reply

@cryptographic · Jan 29 '21

$0.02

I'm looking for more consolidation/accumulation, basically a sideways range between 29 & 42 for a while longer. More "basing" if we can call it that at this point - looking back from sometime in the future, I think it'll look that way. Lot's of people see parabolic, but I think it's still constructive market structure basing, again, on a humongous scale (the 2017 spike high is included in that structure!).

👍 toofasteddie

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@jrcornel · Jan 29 '21

It won't make new highs right away, but to me this looks like exactly the same pattern we saw previously. While it took about 3 weeks on average to bottom, it appears to have taken about 6 weeks to make new highs again from those lows. So the new highs I referenced likely won't happen tomorrow etc.

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@cryptographic · Jan 29 '21 (edited)

I'm watching the mid-Bollinger on the daily right now. (Just for fun, of course. As you know, I don't trade anymore.)

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1 reply

@hivebuzz · Jan 29 '21

Congratulations @jrcornel! You have completed the following achievement on the Hive blockchain and have been rewarded with new badge(s) :

<table><tr><td><img src="https://images.hive.blog/60x70/http://hivebuzz.me/@jrcornel/posts.png?202101291943"></td><td>You published more than 2300 posts. Your next target is to reach 2400 posts.</td></tr>
</table>

<sub>_You can view your badges on [your board](https://hivebuzz.me/@jrcornel) and compare yourself to others in the [Ranking](https://hivebuzz.me/ranking)_</sub>
<sub>_If you no longer want to receive notifications, reply to this comment with the word_ `STOP`</sub>



**Check out the last post from @hivebuzz:**
<table><tr><td><a href="/hivebuzz/@hivebuzz/pud-202102"><img src="https://images.hive.blog/64x128/https://i.imgur.com/805FIIt.jpg"></a></td><td><a href="/hivebuzz/@hivebuzz/pud-202102">Next Hive Power Up Day is February 1st 2021</a></td></tr></table>

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@intothewild · Jan 29 '21

55K coming up soon! Buckle up!

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@jrcornel · Jan 29 '21

History supports your thoughts! Though it may take a few more weeks yet.

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@stefano.massari · Jan 29 '21

I believe that BITCOIN can now restart to return to $ 40,000

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@jrcornel · Jan 30 '21

History suggests that it is beginning.

👍 stefano.massari

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