What will BTC do if it repeats the last halving cycle exactly? by jrcornel

View this thread on: hive.blog | peakd.com | ecency.com

hive-167922 · @jrcornel · Jun 22 '20

$26.17

What will BTC do if it repeats the last halving cycle exactly?

# History doesn't always repeat exactly, but what if it did?

If you have followed my blog for any length of time you will have noticed that I like to talk about past performance when speculating what the future results may be.

Normally, this would be mostly fool-hearty.

However, with BTC it's not quite as unrealistic as one might think.

After all, we do know that even though history doesn't usually repeat exactly, it does often rhyme...

With bitcoin and the halving cycles thus far, it has tended to rhyme quite a bit.

So, what should we expect if this next cycle repeats exactly what happened previously?

I'm glad you asked!

Basically something like this:

![](https://images.hive.blog/DQmdKSfshAyc66qUu1VvowCrmoFqD5mzwhTyzg9Bn84krQ3/image.png)

(Source: https://twitter.com/TheMoonCarl/status/1275012947232747521/photo/1)

# What would happen this time around?

During this stage of the BTC halving cycle back in late 2016, bitcoin was worth roughly $700 per coin.

Using the same percentage gains from the last time around, it would take us up to around $318k per coin.

And it would happen within the next 18 months.

Specifically, it would happen in October of 2021.

For those doing the math that is roughly 33x higher than where we are currently and it would happen in less than 16 months.

But we do know that things don't often repeat so this is mostly just a fun exercise to see what would happen if they did.

That being said, ironically this model is fairly close to projecting the same values that the much followed Stock to Flow is anticipating will happen...

![](https://images.hive.blog/DQmdgBeCx7QiHJLH1bTrj7Wnt21DiUBJQYPL6CV16vxYuhb/image.png)

(Source: https://twitter.com/RiggsBTC/status/1275167745349484545/photo/1)

It shows BTC north of $100k by the end of 2021 and possibly as high as about $288k during the peak of this next cycle.

I'm not sure about you, but even if we aren't anywhere close to repeating these previous price gains exactly, we should be pretty happy with where things are compared with today.

The big question then becomes, what do you think happens to altcoin prices if bitcoin does anything close to what it did last time?

What could that mean for the price of HIVE?

Stay informed my friends.

-Doc

Posted Using [LeoFinance](https://leofinance.io/@jrcornel/what-will-btc-do-if-it-repeats-the-last-halving-cycle-exactly)

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@cryptictruth · Jun 23 '20

If the king pumps alts have historically followed.

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@jrcornel · Jun 23 '20

Si. Bitcoin first and then the alts.

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@cryptictruth · Jun 23 '20

Yeah I wish it was not true, but that’s how it goes for now. There a lot of alt projects that should trade opposite to btc. I would think Tezos would be more like gold and btc is like a stock.

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2 replies

@ecoinstats · Jun 22 '20

We suspect that Alts will eat some of that market cap from Bitcoin this time around, but only time will tell!  

Another round of beers while we wait to see...

Posted Using [LeoFinance](https://leofinance.io/@ecoinstats/qccp6s)

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@jrcornel · Jun 23 '20

Haha, yes it will take some time to play out. If last year is any indication, we have about 15 more months to be precise. :)

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@mattclarke · Jun 23 '20

What happens to Splinterlands cards when the focus shifts from **tokens** to **non-fungible tokens?**

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@jrcornel · Jun 23 '20

$0.05

I have a guess...

👍 mattclarke, silverstackeruk

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@silverstackeruk · Jun 24 '20

$0.04

Im still HODLING all mine matt, never sold one yet. 

Im thinking if Bitcoin goes over $50k, splinderland cards will be worth "cha ching!"

👍 mattclarke

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@mattclarke · Jun 24 '20

$0.23

You're around [$1200](https://peakmonsters.com/@silverstackeruk/collection) currently.

👍 frogcake

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@mehmetfix · Jun 23 '20

If the 9000 - 1000 dollar limit is exceeded, as soon as possible ...

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@jrcornel · Jun 23 '20

I assume you mean $10,000 dollar limit?

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@mehmetfix · Jun 24 '20

Yes, if it goes above $ 10,000 or drops sharply below $ 9,000.

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