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Where and when will Bitcoin peak? Here's what the patterns point to... by jrcornel

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hive-167922 · @jrcornel ·
$12.80
Where and when will Bitcoin peak? Here's what the patterns point to...
# Wouldn't it be nice if you had a cheat sheet telling where and when bitcoin was going to peak?

What if you had a cheat sheet telling you where and when bitcoin was going to peak during this current bull market?

While we don't have a crystal ball, we may have the next best thing!

Here's a chart taking the post first halving rally and the second post halving rally and giving you an average and estimate of where and when this current post halving rally may peak...

Check it out:

![image.png](https://images.hive.blog/DQmXdufcWDTjt1K5oNZqNK1NsjhZCeX1yxUDhFXbY3KiVzK/image.png)

(Source: https://twitter.com/gordongekkonl/status/1330586417047642112/photo/1)

The blue line is the first halving, while the red line is the second halving, and the yellow line is the average of the two.

All scenarios start from the halving this year at $8,601 on May 11th, and then use historical data to get a cycle high and a time frame for when that high will happen.

# What can we learn from this?

If we follow the first post halving rally we are going to peak around June of 2021 at a price north of $720k per coin.

That sounds nice and all but in all reality the second halving is likely much more comparable to where we are today in terms of the crypto ecosystem.

Which means that is probably the one we should pay most attention to...

If we follow the second post halving rally we are going to peak around October of 2021 at a price around $200k per coin.

Based on the data above it looks like the optimal time to sell bitcoin may be in or around October of next year.

However, this doesn't mean it will play out exactly like this, but I am willing to bet the peak happens within a few months of this, on either side of it.

Meaning, we could peak anywhere from late summer to very early 2022.

If I had to guess specifically, I think we peak a little over $100k and I think it happens in December of 2021. Not as bullish as some, but I like to 

There you have it, your cheat sheet for bitcoin prices both in terms of a peak price and when it might occur.

Just sit on your hands until late next year and you are likely to capture the vast majority of this move.

Stay informed my friends.

-Doc

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@bagofincome · 
Things are starting to get really exciting real fast!

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@builderofcastles · 
What would you sell bitcoin for?

For a dollar that is soon going to be worthless?
Trade them for downtown realestate that is about to be abandoned?
Buy stocks that don't really exist in a market that allows fake shares to be sold?
Trade into dollar stable coins that are all but guaranteed to disappear?


Only thing i can see is to trade into other cryptos that are not at their peak
or trade for things you really need like a homestead and a greenhouse.
👍  
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@autobodhi · 
That is definitely what I will be trying to buy with my bag if I can accumulate enough before the big run.  A nice little piece of rural land with a spring ideally.
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@builderofcastles · 
When bitcoin gets near $100k, look for people who will want to trade their "useless" piece of land for that FOMO bitcoin.

this will also avoid capital gains problems.
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@jrcornel · 
Well, locking in profits and putting it into specific real estate or stocks probably makes sense. Also holding it in that falling dollar is also likely to be a prudent move as well considering that bitcoin routinely tanks 80% (against the dollar) during the bust portion of its boom and bust cycles...
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@filotasriza3 · 
720k in 2021 per bitcoin?

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@jrcornel · 
If it follows the first pattern, yes. I don't think it will though.
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@filotasriza3 · 
me neither! i wished but don't think so as well!

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@gandhibaba · 
Thanks for keeping us informed!

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@oldtimer · 
It'll be different this time. Now professionals and institutions are buying not crypto enthusiasts and newbies.

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@jrcornel · 
Very true. That being said, I could make an argument that means the peak will be higher or lower due to this depending... :)
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@onealfa.leo · 
Yeah, sit on your hands. 
Nice cheat sheet.

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@jrcornel · 
It's much easier said than done. I am already battling some inner "take some profits now" demons... :)
👍  ,
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@st8z · 
Honestly, I think a price far above 100k is unrealistic, as this is a symbolic brand. So according to the motto " What the hell? 100k?" - sounds banal, but has a great influence on the human psyche, at least that's how I would judge it. Regardless of the peak, do you expect near the peak with a setback at familiar heights or do you think we will lose volatility?

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@jrcornel · 
Well I also thought we'd peak at $10k back in 2017 and it went double that to $20k. So, going to $200k on an overshoot isn't impossible. And yes, I fully expect there to be another 80% crash after bitcoin eventually peaks. An 80% crash from $100k would put a bottom right around $20k... hmm...
👍  
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@st8z · 
Well this is a good point ;) Maybe we can talk about this with more information. Let's say in one year :D For sure we will know more after that.

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@stefano.massari · 
I think that the peak of one hundred thousand dollars is enough and I do not rule out that this will happen in the next two or three years. Anyway I think the altseason is coming soon.  I'd say it's possible that it will arrive in a few months.
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@jrcornel · 
I could see that as well. Once bitcoin breaks new highs and retail money starts flowing in, I suspect altcoins will start joining the party.
👍  
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vote details (1)
@stefano.massari · 
I agree
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@taskmaster4450le · 
Very good. 

A broad range to keep in mind. 

I do agree that there will likely be a frenzy into 2021 that will drive things higher.  Can it go through the entire year?  Last time, the bull run lasted on a few months.

With the institutions, it certainly could take place over that long a period.



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@jrcornel · 
I think there will be a couple smaller rallies within the broader context of a big rally. That is pretty much what happened back in 2017 as well. Higher lows and higher highs along the way.
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@taskmaster4450le · 
I can see that.  It is interesting to note how high this run can take things.

If the alts follow BTC to some degree, the total marketcap of the entire industry will explode.

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@yuriitonkov · 
I think this is a good method:
https://leofinance.io/@yuriitonkov/el-multiplo-de-puell-the-puell-multiple

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