The latest Bitcoin price correction is the biggest so far this bull market cycle, retracing from the ATH of just under $65k down to yesterday’s low of just above $42k. That’s close to a 35% drop in value over the past 33 days. It is clear to see that $42.k was a major support based on previous price action, so the bounce back up from here is natural, and coincides exactly with the daily 200 EMA. 
![BTC daily chart w biggest dip so far this year 18May21.png](https://i.imgur.com/TCgJlTA.png)
What concerns me is the fact that price has fallen below the 21 weekly MA with a weekly candle close. We now sit below this support which is usually a very bearish sign for a macro bull market cycle. We will need to get above $48k this week to really push back above that 21 weekly MA. So far we are on our way there with price having bounced three times off the $42.5k support level in the past 24 hours, as seen on the 1 hour chart. The 55 MA on the hourly is acting as resistance throughout this current dip though. 

Whether the Elon Musk tweets had anything to do with the bitcoin price correction or not, price was already showing bearish signs this month. It may have just been a further catalyst to an already weak or uncertain market. I’m hoping that support holds and price begins is climb in what is essentially still the macro bull market phase of this halving cycle since May 2020. The bull market should theoretically continue for the rest of this year. 

The RSI on the daily just touched oversold but never entered that region, despite the massive correction. And it now looks like its curling upwards again. On the weekly chart the RSI has just reached the middle region a 50, which has been the support for this entire bull market since the halving of May 2020. Technically when the RSI is above 50, price is in a bull trend and when it falls below 50 it is bearish. In other words price is at that critical juncture now, with the weekly RSI approaching the 50 point. 

All thing considered, this is a fantastic buy opportunity for long term hodlers and anyone wishing to accumulate or DCA (dollar cost average) into a bitcoin position. I have picked up some more bitcoin now, buying the dip for long term accumulation. I still follow the forecast that part two of this bull market cycle is still to come, for the rest of this year, taking price to beyond $100k, and potentially much higher before peaking in this halving cycle. As we have seen, this cycle involves much more big institutional buying, and not merely retail adoption which drove the last bull market.

In my opinion, which is not investment advice of course, the next major support below this sits at previous resistance of around $30k, from January and February during the early phase of the bull run. Surprisingly I’m even hearing suggestions that if price continues to fall, it could even go as low as $20k, back to the previous halving cycle ATH which remained as massive resistance for almost a month in December, before the breakout that saw price pump dramatically. That’s another almost 30% retracement added to the already 34% we have just had from the recent ATH. It sounds a bit extreme to me although I would gladly welcome the opportunity to pick up more bitcoin at the bargain of a lifetime.

On the daily chart the 13 and 21 MAs have already crossed below the 100 MA. I would wait until we see the 55 MA cross below the 100 before calling it a death cross. This could well happen in the next few days, so keep an eye on those indicators. I use these numbers of 13/ 21/55 for my MA indicators instead of 10/20/50 because the former are fibonacci levels and I have been told that they add more accuracy. The difference is only slight of course but the principle of the death cross still applies, which is a traditional bearish indicator of note.
 
This current price correction is certainly the biggest of the year so far, and this week is the first time that we see the 13 and 21 MAs cross bearish below the 100 MA, suggesting that we are indeed at a crucial juncture in the overall bull market cycle of this halving in bitcoin’s history. These may well be bearish months, with more downside to come, or at least a period of consolidation ahead. Either way the long term trend is still bullish in my opinion and so I have no worries buying the dip and awaiting the next past of the bull market. I certainly won’t be selling any bitcoin until price in above $100k. 

Bitcoin dominance is reaching the apparent bottom at around 40 now, and so altcoin season may have a last chance to pump some of the other cryptocurrencies, but bitcoin dominance may begin to climb back up in the coming weeks after this retracement as money flows back in to bitcoin from the alts. That said, we are in a new paradigm with the DeFi space and staking, which was not as much part of the previous bull market cycles, so each time is different and could well surprise us. Feel inspired to make insights known in the comments below and may you enjoy happy trading.

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