What’s up with the price of Hive lately? Although that’s the wrong phrase to use since it’s actually more down than up. The first 4 months of this year saw Hive make some epic gains, emerging from rock bottom at 300 sats to climb majestically to around 1800 sats in late April, only to sink back down to below 1000 currently. 


![HiveBTC chart weekly w MAs 9May21.png](https://images.hive.blog/DQmXGFKNKRRhkbTNcBDtqkCy6kgYgFU36UT85bF3pxg3W6j/HiveBTC%20chart%20weekly%20w%20MAs%209May21.png)

At this rate we will retrace to the support at around 800 sats, which implies that we only made a 2.2x gain in BTC value this year, even though it’s the middle of the bull market cycle. This is a little disappointing, considering that we were double that in mid April. Hive has lost 50% of its gains in BTC value in the past month.

I still don’t understand why one of the best blockchain platforms in the entire cryptocurrency ecosystem is so undervalued and particularly underutilized by the masses. Steem – our nemesis – is steaming ahead, usually double the value of Hive, which is a constant embarrassment and thorn in the side of Hive bees. 

The dollar value may be faring a bit better, which is a consolation, to be fair. We are currently up over 4x from the rock bottom lows of $0.10. So I guess I should be content with that. Perhaps it’s those euphoric pumps – two of them – that we had in late March and  late April, exactly a month apart, that have over-stimulated the dopamine receptors like a subsidized high from an illegal additive, that have left me feeling down, after the artificial euphoria has worn off. 

Another good sign is that on the weekly chart Hive has only retraced to the 13 SMA in BTC value, and is not down at the 21 SMA, which would be considered the absolute bottom for a bull market retracement. We’re hovering above the 13 MA, which is acting as support for now. Actually let me refine that statement. If you look carefully you can see on the weekly chart that the 21 SMA (simple moving average) is still a distance away, down at 700 sats. However, the 21 EMA (estimated moving average) is right on top of the 13 EMA at around 915 sats. And considering that Hive’s BTC value is now 955 sats, I would say that we are at a crucial time.

I am not quite sure which MA is considered the ultimate support in a bull cycle on the weekly, perhaps someone could elucidate in the comments. If it’s the EMA, then we cannot afford to go any lower and still be considered in the bull market cycle any more. If it’s the SMA then the 21 is still down a further 26% roughly, at 700 sats.

Once we cross below the 21 weekly MA (whichever one it is) we are officially in a major bear market cycle. Personally for me this is a warning sign to be very aware of. Hive has just had its first birthday in late March and has been going strong on the development level, with great projects and Dapps emerging constantly. But for some reason, it is struggling to gain popularity as well as the value it actually merits. I would love to hear any opinions in the comments regarding why Hive is not gaining the user base it should be attracting with all that it has going for it.

I have seen other tokenized social media platforms crash and burn, like UOS, which hardly made it out of test phase. You probably don’t even know about it. And now recently this week Uptrennd has also just folded, after a year or so in full throttle on Ethereum. The 1UP token which was given to bloggers for likes accumulated, is almost worthless and the social media platform is being handed over to some company called Trodl, to utilize. So there you have two attempts in tokenized social media which have failed.

Amazingly Hive continues nicely, so I should actually be quite content I suppose. I just don’t understand why more crypto enthusiasts aren’t signing up to blog and earn crypto. I presume because the onramp is clunky for them and also because the ability to earn at a decent rate here takes time. One has to accumulate Hive and stake it as HP to really begin earning anything more than peanuts.
 
Add to that the fact that to most first world countries even a few dollars worth of Hive gained a day for a post is actually still peanuts. I don’t know for sure. I’m in a third world country where I get 14x to the dollar at my exchange rate here in sunny South Africa. So to me it is worthwhile to blog on and accumulate Hive at the daily rate of payouts from upvotes. Maybe it’s not that attractive to first world citizens. 

Hive may still need to reach terminal velocity regarding acquiring new members. Once your friends are using it, you will be more inclined to also use it, but while it is still a fringe group of users and your usual circle of friends and family that you like to connect with on the old legacy social media platforms are not here, then you may be less inclined, I presume. I happily left FB and lost contact with all those types who meant little to me anyway. It’s an artificial feeling of reach that FB gives you. While here on Hive your reach appears overtly limited.

So I presume most people are bloggers for the reach it gives them and the feeling of being heard by an audience, of which there is less on Hive. I am different, and prefer to earn. I also prefer to communicate here among strangers but who are like minded strangers. I will rather make new friends among guys like you who are in a similar mindset, as crypto enthusiasts or any of my other interests in the other communities, than disinterested so-called friends or family from my past. Very few of those I left behind are into crypto. And that could be the dividing and deciding factor as to why Hive is still at a small scale user base. 

The reach as well as the value needs to grow to appear more attractive to the mainstream user. For those of us involved, Hive is already hugely attractive, and I try to tell others in my local circle of friends but they can’t take to the opportunity because they are addicted to their illusion of reach on old platforms or they are crypto illiterate and even suspicious. This will be our challenge as the Hive community – how to convince the rest of the world of the glories of Hive, so that they can get the amazing benefits that we are enjoying right now in gains and new friends. 

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