What's up with bitcoin? It just broke 61.8% fib level with almost no resistence. by karamyog

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bitcoin · @karamyog · Jul 24 '18

$2.19

What's up with bitcoin? It just broke 61.8% fib level with almost no resistence.

![Screenshot_20180724-125745_Chrome.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmW5TouVaPHpu3SWjF9gdUL89RaK3LXy2feSyErHKK1RSX/Screenshot_20180724-125745_Chrome.jpg)
Source: TradingView

At the time of writing this article, bitcoin is trading at $8,250 per coin on coinbase. It is a bit strange given events of the past few weeks and months and I want to discuss that in this post.

Firstly, lots of telegram groups and YouTube analysts (somewhat legit ones) have been recommending everyone to follow a cautious approach about opening positions at this level. Up until a few weeks ago, there were very strong calls for bitcoin hitting 3k, after bitcoin dropped to $5,800 levels. Not only have those calls vanished, i think any theories about a short squeeze are BS.

I had written a post a few months ago about important news that had come from Consensus 2018, the blockchain conference that failed to revive bitcoin price against everyone's hopes. The most important of those was institutional custody. Now, again the problem with bitcoin markets is that there is very little news that comes on the adoption of these solutions. I personally think that this solution from nomura and coinbase may have already seen some adoption from family offices or crypto hedge funds. I believe some institutional money has already gone into bitcoin during this price slump.

Next, Galaxy investments had recently raised $250 million for a new crypto fund. This is proxy for increased institutional interest that does not want to invest on their own but want a money manager. I don't think the current price action has anything to do with blackrock, because i firmly believe that regulated entities will not put a penny on bitcoin unless given a go ahead by regulators.

What the current price action may be indicating are the following -
1. increasing probability of SEC approving bitcoin ETF
2. ending of the correction
3. effects of lobbying by banks to push for a nod from the regulator to trade cryptos, now that a custody solution is in place
4. New unregulated institutional money that took time for the market to cool off a little before investing
5. Insiders building positions in bitcoin - markets are at best semi efficient and all the information isnl not priced in. What is priced in is public information

I wish coindesk and other publications wrote decent articles about cryptos. Or actually a publication that focusses purely on price and publishes the importance of significant news only.

If you have any insights or idea about what may be bringing back bitcoin bullishness, please let me know in comments.

Btw, bitcoin just made a high of crossed $8,360 on coinbase.

👍 fulltimebot49, fulltimebot46, fulltimebot45, fulltimebot66, fulltimebot71, fulltimebot73, steevc, clayrawlings, crypto.piotr, jaynie, wizarty, preparedwombat, dreamryder007, machnbirdsparo, ced000, thevillan, clearbluecrypto, techstack, curtross, tornadoman

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@ced000 · Jul 26 '18

BTC, I hope It's going way up too. I have some hoarded somewhere😁

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@machnbirdsparo · Jul 30 '18

Has LN finally made itself seen as a formidable financial force?

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@karamyog · Jul 30 '18

I've stopped keeping track of its adoption. 

I doubt that it's become a formidable force,  after all for that to happen, bitcoin needs to first see more adoption. But its good,  may be by the time bitcoin becomes more mainstream,  LN apps will come that are simply install and use, or cards backed by LN payments.

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@machnbirdsparo · Jul 30 '18

Thanks for the reply.  Disregard or take lightly as I ramble on below :)

I tend to think that non-pump pricing comes from tech upgrades. My reasoning is that the conventional investment community is a lot of rank and file. So following recognition of mainstream media, if its not new tech, then their is unconventional dealings or restructuring. Of course the regulation you mention is a main mover, but here again, I believe regulation to come down to "figure head" power structures. Ergo, at this point, the last variable I see is public response to mass media dissemination, which Bitcoin has already achieved.

The only other thing I see are institution risk takers by non major powers (i.e. Korea).

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3 replies

@steevc · Jul 27 '18

I see it has since dropped. That's how it goes despite what the lines on a graph say :)

👍 karamyog

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@karamyog · Jul 27 '18

:) agree on that. A lot of people were expecting it to face some resitence around that level though.  

More importantly, that was the upper limit for the weekly range I had predicted on a "game" i play every month- cindicator. The continuous bullishness for 3 days was a surprise for me. Very welcomed though.

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@techstack · Jul 24 '18

@karmayog I think previously there was lot of negative news about the BTC and the major one was taxing profits from Crypto. So lot of big players had sold their part which caused sudden fall. Now seems ok I think lot of new players are coming in and market is steadily moving upward which is good sign.

Cheers!!!

👍 karamyog

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@karamyog · Jul 24 '18

There was negative news for sure. i also think the dominating force for profit booking and short selling. A correction was needed after the bull run last year. I hope it keeps going up for a while from here.

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