<html> <p><img src="https://thedisorderofthings.files.wordpress.com/2015/07/man-drowning.jpg" width="1366" height="768"/></p> <p><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptodepression"><strong>Cryptodepression</strong></a> is a term from the physical geography and <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geomorphology"><strong>geomorphology</strong></a> , but it is also such a nice fit to the current situation in the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decentralization"><strong>cryptocurrency sector</strong></a>. </p> <p>So rich in economic, psychological and all other subtle <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Connotation"><strong>connotations</strong></a> of <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Depression"><strong>depression</strong></a>. </p> <p>Without any shadow of fundamentalism or <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bitcoin-maximalism.asp"><strong>maximalism </strong></a>after all this entire decade of observation unfortunately for me bitcoin and crypto are yet synonymous. NOTHING after <a href="http://www.bookofsatoshi.com/"><strong>Satoshi </strong></a>, nothing fundamentally new - only <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/a/altcoin.asp"><strong>alts</strong></a>, <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/shitcoin.asp"><strong>shits</strong></a> and, thanks God, some <a href="https://en.bitcoinwiki.org/wiki/Mastercoin"><strong>Layer</strong></a>. Okay, quite a few projects with promises of post-satoshiness around, but yet none of them yielded anything working. Mere variations of the already ancient tune is all the crypto musical scene we have. </p> <p>You know already <a href="https://steemit.com/@karov"><strong>my ''obsession''</strong></a> that <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Growth"><strong>growth</strong></a> is the only mode of <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sustainability"><strong>sustainability</strong></a> that we knew, know and probably will ever know. This ''fixation'' predates <a href="https://bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf"><strong>bitcoin</strong></a> and makes my focus on crypto to be kinda predisposed. For the blockchain being the most powerful <a href="https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@karov/geodesica"><strong>transactor</strong></a> we have ever known and had. The strongest monetary algorithm. Doing the most with the least, so far. </p> <p>Economy could be viewed as a network which yields <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wealth"><strong>wealth</strong></a>, like the brain - a network that outputs <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thought"><strong>thought</strong></a>. ''Individual'' computer's circuitry is also ... network. It is all about <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore%27s_law"><strong>quantity</strong></a> and <a href="http://unenumerated.blogspot.com/2014/10/transportation-divergence-and.html"><strong>quality</strong></a> of connections. Structure is <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gradient"><strong>gradient</strong></a>, per se, but on this some other time... All objects are relations connectomes. </p> <p>The better the transaction, the tighter the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Connectivity"><strong>connectivity</strong></a>, the bigger the output. Check <a href="https://www.quantamagazine.org/how-complex-networks-explode-with-growth-20150714/?fbclid=IwAR1nqir0ppus4LdmF12guMbxmN2pwWULUUMsZxgj2RmpV1oBPqtgajrZBYY"><strong>this</strong></a> out, per instance! </p> <p>In <a href="https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@karov/bitcoin-retrodictions"><strong>this</strong></a> and <a href="https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@karov/bitcoin-retrojections"><strong>this</strong></a> essays of mine - almost an year across the time - I outlined some of my findings and thoughts on the great grower's growth. </p> <p>If bitcoin is such a good of a transactor, and if better transaction = greater growth, then why the hell bitcoin's growth itself is so hesitant and wobbly? </p> <p><img src="https://i.redd.it/cu52fxb6jzh11.jpg" width="1062" height="757"/></p> <p>or</p> <p><img src="https://files.mastodon.social/media_attachments/files/005/299/020/original/528e096e88541ba0.png" width="907" height="657"/></p> <p>Well, the answer seems to gravitate around how the human attention, motivation, memory and public attentioning works. </p> <p>FIRST, watch <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&v=aL52ywnhfT8&app=desktop"><strong>this vid</strong></a>. </p> <p>It is from 6th of January 2017!! </p> <p>The fact that it is so up to date even now - up all the crypto-booming 2017 and down all the crypto-busting 2018 reveals the quite a strong level of understanding by the author. Well done, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCdC3h2m88FC02Yw-A_VESRQ"><strong>Chris Dunn</strong></a> ! </p> <p>In a nutshell the idea is.: Bitcoin price grows all the time. So far nothing different from my <a href="https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@karov/bitcoin-retrodictions"><strong>Blue Line</strong></a>. It goes up gently and steadily when not observed. Once the growth noticed it attracts attention in a runaway fashion. Out of the sudden the <a href="https://99bitcoins.com/bitcoin-obituaries/"><strong>Dead is Risen</strong></a> again and fully back in the news, all headlines flashing as <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyberpunk"><strong>cyberpunk</strong></a> neon lights. The attention brings fiat in, lots of it - dollar the ticket for the roller-coaster ride is. Nobody want's to miss the train. More dollars in = higher price, to a level of bullish anxiety maximum, <a href="https://www.babypips.com/forexpedia/ath"><strong>ATH</strong></a>, bitcoin fever ... overshoot and BUST! </p> <p>The bigger the forced deviation away from the <a href="https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@karov/bitcoin-retrodictions"><strong>Blue Line</strong></a>, the bigger and longer lasting is the yo-yo effect. The higher it's pushed the deeper it will go and the longer it will stay under the Line. And vice versa. </p> <p>This is also an explanation about why the overally smooth <a href="https://www.investinblockchain.com/cryptocurrency-adoption-rising-in-2018/"><strong>bitcoin adoption increase</strong></a> does not correspond to the price dynamics. <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/investing/surprising-benefits-when-brokers-grade-their-customers/"><strong>Dumb money</strong></a> buys and sells are not adoption. </p> <p>It is like <a href="https://www.physicsclassroom.com/class/momentum/Lesson-2/Momentum-Conservation-Principle"><strong>momentum conservation</strong></a>. Bitcoin is not only <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parabolic_trajectory"><strong>parabolic</strong></a>, it is also <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elasticity_(physics)"><strong>ELASTIC</strong></a>. </p> <p>Two take-aways from up to here :: </p> <blockquote>- Mass media rather distort the market, than to mitigate the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_calculation_problem"><strong>economic calculation</strong></a>,</blockquote> <p>&</p> <blockquote>- Bitcoin has kinda <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schr%C3%B6dinger%27s_cat"><strong>Schroedinger</strong></a> growth mode - if you look at it - it stays between the life and death, when unobserved - it simply grows. </blockquote> <p>SECOND, do we know other such exemplary mechanisms in play? </p> <p>Well, it seems, yes. Perhaps it is everywhere, but here you are one: The <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kondratiev_wave"><strong>K-waves</strong></a>. </p> <p><img src="https://c2.staticflickr.com/4/3082/2925528770_eaf26f6be4_b.jpg" width="1024" height="768"/></p> <p>The wonderful graph of <a href="https://www.poisonpapers.org/about-us/peter-von-stackelberg/"><strong>Peter von Stackelberg</strong></a>'s from <a href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/andreasmb/2925528770/sizes/o/"><strong>here</strong></a>. </p> <p><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nikolai_Kondratiev"><strong>Kondratiev</strong></a> was a honest <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Econometrics"><strong>econometrician</strong></a>. A fact proven by the reward he got for his great work - endless years in a Gulag camp and a shooting squad for parole. He couldn't make it with rigorous theoretical explanation for the drive behind these cycles. He would if he had his own lifetime, I'm sure. </p> <p>I paid a lot of attention of the bubbliness and wobbliness of economic growth in the Dark immediatelly after the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_crisis_of_2007%E2%80%932008"><strong>subprime crash of 2007-2008</strong></a>. Few years of really serious literature archaeology. </p> <p>And the best explanation for the K-cyclicity I found was the most natural one - the human generations and social memory. </p> <p>Somebody noticed that K-wave specific frequency of about 50-60 years is almost exactly 2 human<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Generation_time"><strong> generations</strong></a> of average 28 years each. (Best definition of ''generation'' was something like average age of parents divided on average age of their progeny.)</p> <p>The K-wave is defined by the pulse of the human reproduction. </p> <p>Once a human generation is 1 <a href="https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/nanohertz"><strong>nanohertz</strong></a>. Once per two generations (Kondratiev) is half a nanohertz. Two billions of times less frequent that once in a second. </p> <p>Like with ICE, or with a bicycle, walking, birds flight ... the overall curve of growth is smooth on greater scale, but because effort excercise is never uniform in time this makes it to look like a staircase upon zoom-in. </p> <p><img src="https://i2.wp.com/www.planetexperts.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/knowledgecurve.jpg" width="965" height="740"/></p> <p>Bitcoin's wave specific frequency of 4 years? </p> <p>Pulsed by the built-in <a href="https://blockonomi.com/bitcoin-halving/"><strong>reward halving rate</strong></a>. </p> <p>And human <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_behavior"><strong>attentional herding</strong></a> amplified by the mass media ... as the wave peak-lifter and though-deepener... </p> <p><img src="https://imgs.edhelper.com/clipart/stories/rstoriesg4925prev.jpg" width="226" height="170"/></p> <p>The big picture? .: </p> <p><strong>Wavelength</strong> - about 4 years. </p> <p><strong>Crest </strong>- as high as the herding buying pushes it up. </p> <p><strong>Through</strong> - as deep as the panic sale dig is (but not deeper than the Bottom). </p> <p><strong>Bottom</strong> - the average mining cost. </p> <p><img src="https://www.investopedia.com/thmb/p_-ozVEGI8Y5o3byZuIv0BtPeto=/1200x1865/filters:no_upscale()/bitcoin_mining_costs_around_world_chart-5bfd7c89c9e77c0051bce8f0" width="1200" height="1865"/></p> <p>Can it death-spiral bottomlessly? </p> <p>Rather not, ... <a href="https://gameofthrones.fandom.com/wiki/What_Is_Dead_May_Never_Die"><strong>''what is dead may never die''</strong></a>. ;)</p> <p><br></p> <p><strong>18qSKUUTAGw1uL53simrSiZ6pJpfxKACvj for research support. Thanks. </strong></p> <p><strong>Copyright © 2019 Georgi Karov. All rights reserved.</strong></p> <p><br></p> <p><br></p> <p><br></p> <p><br></p> </html>
| author | karov |
|---|---|
| permlink | cryptodepression |
| category | bitcoin |
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| created | 2019-01-02 22:41:12 |
| last_update | 2019-01-03 19:57:33 |
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| cashout_time | 1969-12-31 23:59:59 |
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| root_title | Cryptodepression |
| beneficiaries | [] |
| max_accepted_payout | 1,000,000.000 HBD |
| percent_hbd | 10,000 |
| post_id | 77,778,127 |
| net_rshares | 5,978,494,756,158 |
| author_curate_reward | "" |
| voter | weight | wgt% | rshares | pct | time |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| tombstone | 0 | 2,227,518,959,829 | 10% | ||
| holabebe | 0 | 0 | 100% | ||
| kevinwong | 0 | 1,958,055,902,981 | 25% | ||
| bitnation | 0 | 0 | 100% | ||
| mrwang | 0 | 213,051,340 | 12.5% | ||
| arconite | 0 | 7,548,332,125 | 12.5% | ||
| warofcraft | 0 | 28,673,243,855 | 20% | ||
| roy2016 | 0 | 585,007,794,914 | 100% | ||
| eforucom | 0 | 21,314,053,712 | 1% | ||
| bukiland | 0 | 1,133,222,181 | 0.51% | ||
| elviento | 0 | 481,457,774 | 0.7% | ||
| karov | 0 | 4,791,532,825 | 100% | ||
| mrakodrap | 0 | 1,902,332,614 | 10% | ||
| jordiles2 | 0 | 556,904,167 | 100% | ||
| janusface | 0 | 606,473,420,610 | 100% | ||
| ralph-rennoldson | 0 | 543,026,987 | 0.34% | ||
| nurhayati | 0 | 1,099,845,340 | 25% | ||
| pittsburghhodlr | 0 | 7,192,020,616 | 100% | ||
| kasperr | 0 | 544,821,653 | 100% | ||
| malia88 | 0 | 505,237,406 | 100% | ||
| mrshev | 0 | 9,221,967,971 | 40% | ||
| andrew28zx | 0 | 505,173,447 | 100% | ||
| brooks228 | 0 | 505,722,103 | 100% | ||
| sveridovartem | 0 | 513,956,270 | 100% | ||
| francescak | 0 | 0 | 1% | ||
| jheriko | 0 | 505,492,380 | 100% | ||
| vas30 | 0 | 504,904,778 | 100% | ||
| shavgen111 | 0 | 505,312,006 | 100% | ||
| maruse4ka | 0 | 514,952,557 | 100% | ||
| childse15 | 0 | 518,236,270 | 100% | ||
| borndead05 | 0 | 505,366,117 | 100% | ||
| garikpetrosyan | 0 | 505,493,974 | 100% | ||
| xlibanti | 0 | 504,609,749 | 100% | ||
| syllablesbitcoin | 0 | 514,504,423 | 100% | ||
| theeide | 0 | 504,915,352 | 100% | ||
| patterpavo | 0 | 504,877,356 | 100% | ||
| crashingin | 0 | 504,649,957 | 100% | ||
| decorousoutspoke | 0 | 514,072,757 | 100% | ||
| hipolitc | 0 | 504,836,640 | 100% | ||
| hooveshydra | 0 | 505,394,607 | 100% | ||
| islandlimit | 0 | 514,210,197 | 100% | ||
| hearttoasting | 0 | 514,354,602 | 100% | ||
| pegsstadium | 0 | 504,963,645 | 100% | ||
| womancarve | 0 | 505,330,262 | 100% | ||
| habitroof | 0 | 514,209,885 | 100% | ||
| caesiumfaculae | 0 | 504,819,280 | 100% | ||
| doubtdisney | 0 | 504,579,714 | 100% | ||
| chewycareless | 0 | 504,917,674 | 100% | ||
| lizakotova | 0 | 504,544,879 | 100% | ||
| zuerich | 0 | 437,603,070,021 | 100% | ||
| andreiakilov | 0 | 504,971,873 | 100% | ||
| odetta199 | 0 | 505,337,997 | 100% | ||
| oksanagancharova | 0 | 505,318,370 | 100% | ||
| dinasamoilova | 0 | 505,795,539 | 100% | ||
| hozainnochi | 0 | 505,246,034 | 100% | ||
| logosuperb | 0 | 505,003,995 | 100% | ||
| testifyservant | 0 | 505,214,671 | 100% | ||
| deltoidbus | 0 | 505,056,609 | 100% | ||
| noxiouspick | 0 | 504,784,467 | 100% | ||
| windowsyak | 0 | 505,433,318 | 100% | ||
| kindlytwist | 0 | 505,582,870 | 100% | ||
| steemchoose | 0 | 15,171,634,791 | 0.7% | ||
| waveoutsiders | 0 | 505,377,678 | 100% | ||
| liquidisebland | 0 | 504,871,237 | 100% | ||
| magicbomb | 0 | 504,981,213 | 100% | ||
| americamode | 0 | 505,183,887 | 100% | ||
| grossoexercise | 0 | 504,975,911 | 100% | ||
| pollsprat | 0 | 505,097,479 | 100% | ||
| playactor | 0 | 505,711,135 | 100% | ||
| viperdupe | 0 | 505,481,579 | 100% | ||
| asamarin88 | 0 | 505,304,874 | 100% | ||
| asavin88 | 0 | 505,467,360 | 100% | ||
| moskalenkoalexey | 0 | 505,422,782 | 100% | ||
| beforeskate | 0 | 505,069,901 | 100% | ||
| replysoldier | 0 | 505,969,406 | 100% | ||
| anaerobepicket | 0 | 505,372,193 | 100% | ||
| pedalgrinder | 0 | 506,079,236 | 100% | ||
| obnoxiousurine | 0 | 505,823,651 | 100% | ||
| anharchenko1987 | 0 | 504,538,791 | 100% | ||
| uolshviktor | 0 | 504,619,682 | 100% | ||
| dzhozefrays | 0 | 504,762,567 | 100% | ||
| dzheymss | 0 | 514,496,727 | 100% | ||
| ivan.siko | 0 | 514,583,861 | 100% | ||
| sabitovv | 0 | 504,781,994 | 100% | ||
| nikbelin1983 | 0 | 514,518,501 | 100% | ||
| taras.sergienko | 0 | 514,348,236 | 100% | ||
| nikfrol1983 | 0 | 504,444,445 | 100% | ||
| igmosk1987 | 0 | 505,087,428 | 100% | ||
| antonturov90 | 0 | 504,758,327 | 100% | ||
| devsup | 0 | 2,772,009,018 | 0.69% | ||
| matahayati | 0 | 101,039,436 | 25% | ||
| steemexpress | 0 | 828,071,768 | 1.62% | ||
| stmpay | 0 | 5,400,060,955 | 1.73% | ||
| inningreactivity | 0 | 505,897,962 | 100% | ||
| tubingfeuille | 0 | 505,639,509 | 100% | ||
| prickholing | 0 | 505,887,409 | 100% | ||
| helpscode | 0 | 515,727,937 | 100% | ||
| anschat1984 | 0 | 506,157,410 | 100% | ||
| femanbox | 0 | 505,796,402 | 100% | ||
| rozabeer | 0 | 506,236,606 | 100% | ||
| b1ackraven14 | 0 | 506,370,336 | 100% | ||
| paylovarhouve | 0 | 519,688,428 | 100% | ||
| lawcameraman | 0 | 505,905,637 | 100% | ||
| dryemigrate | 0 | 506,195,375 | 100% | ||
| germharmony | 0 | 506,860,020 | 100% | ||
| leerydesk | 0 | 506,318,606 | 100% | ||
| linksomething | 0 | 505,761,210 | 100% | ||
| punhatdelighted | 0 | 505,887,660 | 100% | ||
| malborooccur | 0 | 505,824,278 | 100% | ||
| loutmoaning | 0 | 506,114,287 | 100% | ||
| flagsencourage | 0 | 505,998,802 | 100% | ||
| normachazard | 0 | 506,556,485 | 100% | ||
| skiadhoc | 0 | 519,598,862 | 100% | ||
| geologisteiger | 0 | 506,294,336 | 100% | ||
| colitiscry | 0 | 506,196,871 | 100% | ||
| patefund | 0 | 505,901,333 | 100% | ||
| sensorintestine | 0 | 506,690,530 | 100% | ||
| glyderaubeaf | 0 | 506,380,674 | 100% | ||
| rafinehaldist | 0 | 505,828,559 | 100% | ||
| bulldoperser | 0 | 506,449,094 | 100% | ||
| galbestchronpali | 0 | 505,989,726 | 100% | ||
| bluesniper | 0 | 5,452,182,312 | 0.34% | ||
| curation.trail | 0 | 1,232,127,908 | 2.61% |
| author | zuerich |
|---|---|
| permlink | re-karov-cryptodepression-20190103t122504405z |
| category | bitcoin |
| json_metadata | {"tags":["bitcoin"],"app":"steemit/0.1"} |
| created | 2019-01-03 12:25:06 |
| last_update | 2019-01-03 12:25:06 |
| depth | 1 |
| children | 1 |
| last_payout | 2019-01-10 12:25:06 |
| cashout_time | 1969-12-31 23:59:59 |
| total_payout_value | 0.000 HBD |
| curator_payout_value | 0.000 HBD |
| pending_payout_value | 0.000 HBD |
| promoted | 0.000 HBD |
| body_length | 19 |
| author_reputation | 170,045,815,505,300 |
| root_title | Cryptodepression |
| beneficiaries | [] |
| max_accepted_payout | 1,000,000.000 HBD |
| percent_hbd | 10,000 |
| post_id | 77,806,721 |
| net_rshares | 5,215,336,982 |
| author_curate_reward | "" |
| voter | weight | wgt% | rshares | pct | time |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| karov | 0 | 4,901,471,515 | 100% | ||
| sergino | 0 | 313,865,467 | 1.25% |
another few hundred are coming. Thanks for following my writings.
| author | karov |
|---|---|
| permlink | re-zuerich-re-karov-cryptodepression-20190103t151123918z |
| category | bitcoin |
| json_metadata | {"tags":["bitcoin"],"app":"steemit/0.1"} |
| created | 2019-01-03 15:11:24 |
| last_update | 2019-01-03 15:11:24 |
| depth | 2 |
| children | 0 |
| last_payout | 2019-01-10 15:11:24 |
| cashout_time | 1969-12-31 23:59:59 |
| total_payout_value | 0.000 HBD |
| curator_payout_value | 0.000 HBD |
| pending_payout_value | 0.000 HBD |
| promoted | 0.000 HBD |
| body_length | 65 |
| author_reputation | 2,845,517,604,919 |
| root_title | Cryptodepression |
| beneficiaries | [] |
| max_accepted_payout | 1,000,000.000 HBD |
| percent_hbd | 10,000 |
| post_id | 77,814,381 |
| net_rshares | 0 |
hiveblocks