***What would happen if bioterrorists released a virus of smallpox on Fiji and in the densely populated Asia? Well, we would see a pandemic as never before and it would take a decade to get it under control. But we would survive.***

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Smallpox is like a nightmare come to life. But this nightmare was real for thousands of years. We think smallpox emerged about ten thousand years ago and the earliest known cases are about twenty five hundred year old Egyptian mummies. And they were quite deadly, just in the twentieth century smallpox killed three to five hundred million people. And those that survived were disfigured.

In 1977 the world changed. Smallpox were no more. All known variants of the virus were either destroyed or moved to one of the two remaining laboratories with a BLS-4 security rating. One is an American CDC laboratory and the other is a Russian facility known simply as Institut Vektor.

One of the side effects of the (almost) complete eradication of smallpox is the fact that the majority of people aren’t vaccinated against them. Because, why would you vaccinate against something that is gone? But people nowadays love disasters. At least in stories, so let’s take a look at one.

Raina MacIntyre – a biological safety specialist – and her coworkers from the Kirby Institute in Australia recently simulated what would happen if smallpox was intentionally released in a densely populated area. And as you might guess, it didn’t go pleasantly. They used a mathematical simulation of the spreading, The simulation was quite complex and people from both governmental and non-governmental organizations partook in it, making realistic real-time decisions.

##### Day Zero

The first case emerges in a private hospital on Fiji. The doctors don’t recognize the virus as they have no experience with it.

##### Two Weeks Later

There are now over two hundred smallpox cases. The death rate is roughly forty percent. Tests confirm it is really smallpox. WHO declares a Public Health Emergency of International Concern and the media creates panic

##### Next Several Months

WHO opens its stores and releases almost three million vaccines against smallpox. The vaccinations in Fiji begin 40 days after the first case with priority for the people who came into contact with the virus.

After it is confirmed that it was a bioterrorist attack the airports on Fifi are closed. Geneticists confirm the virus has been genetically altered but it still reacts well to anti-viral substances and the vaccine still work.

##### Spreading Of The Virus

The smallpox epidemic is spreading over the whole world. Some people try to escape from Fiji and thus spread the virus. More importantly, though, a second attack takes places in Asia while the world focuses on Fiji. The officials are caught completely off guard. Coordination between officials is lacking.

Only about 50 percent of the infected are isolated and only about 50 % of those who come into contact with them are vaccinated. Soon the epidemic is out of control.

##### The Pandemic

The world is suffering from a smallpox pandemic. Many are dead. Governments are weak, infrastructure is collapsing as well as transportation, communications, and supply. The governments have to use force to keep any semblance of law and order.

Conspiracies spread almost faster than the virus and cause people not to cooperate with the officials and fear of the vaccines.

The final toll of the pandemic would be tragic. But there is good news. Humanity would survive. But it would take us a decade and countless dead to get it under control.

**Sources:**
* https://jglobalbiosecurity.com/articles/10.31646/gbio.10/
* https://www.iflscience.com/health-and-medicine/terrifying-exercise-mataika-smallpox-simulation-did-not-end-well-for-humanity/

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