Wow! I am here just a week and already predict the imminent failure of the system, what an asshole I am, right?

But, even if I say so myself, I am a smart guy and learned accountant with a knack for bug finding and a faible for complicated systems and their effects – so I think I am fully qualified to make a prediction. 
If that prediction is wrong, please tell me, I would be happy. (I also make some assumptions on the system on details I have not found out until today, so I may err in some points) Because I like the easiness of steemit. But I don’t like where it is heading, so let me explain why:


## First reason: Voting power

As a new user I have a low steem power. As you know that means my vote isn’t worth anything. I didn’t came here to get curation rewards because I didn’t know you those existed, but if I would have known I would be very disappointed now. Because the only curation reward I got is 0.001 steem from a single, quite successful post ($38). 
If a new user came here lured by “you can vote for good posts and get paid” he would have lost faith after 2 or 3 dozen votes for only a thousand part of a steem. That is a great way to reduce user interaction!
The same part is true for the voting power regarding what you get. I could see it firsthand: The account seller spammed one of my posts. Suddenly I had 50 votes, and I guess 43 were newly created accounts “to be sold” and only 6 (+mine) real. 
Anyway, those 50 votes were worth exactly nothing. Then another user voted and the post was worth 7 cents. 
Now, that user was not even a small whale. But can you image (or remember) how it feels for a new user, that thinks “great post, I give him money!” to see that even 10 votes of him have no power at all?

https://pixabay.com/static/uploads/photo/2016/09/26/17/11/air-bag-1696481_960_720.jpg

On the other side the whales are struggling to distribute their power, and they need to run bots that are not able to distinguish between good and bad posts. If the whales don’t vote they get booed! (Question: if you don’t vote, should that not increase the weight of the other voters? So why that booing?)

### My proposals: 

Overhaul the steem power! 
1. cap the voting power at 1000 steem and give a boost for starters. 
2. make a manual transfer inside steemit possible – not just a voting button but also a “throw steem power” button. For fraud protection maybe only after you doubled sign-up amount. 

That should incentivise new users and take pressure from the whales. 

3. no interest on steem power. Really, scrap it NOW!

## Interest

The worst part of the system is the interest there seems to be on the steem power. The 10% per year on the steem dollars are already bad, but the (if that info was right) 90% on the steem power is catastrophic. Why? Because of the compound interest. 

> Compound interest is the most powerful force in the universe (and the most underestimated). - Albert Einstein

You know the story that if Jesus had put down a cent with 10% interest we would owe him more money as the earth in gold would be worth? 
<br>
90% interest paid daily means the steem power, and with it steem (ignoring the normal production of steem), effectively doubles once per year. Or is 4 times as much after 2 years. 8 after 3, 16 after 4, 32 after 5 years. 
It’s a bit like Harddisks. My first computer started with immense 120MB of storage! And Master of Magic, one of the best games ever, needed braincrushing 24MB!!  
The biggest game today I know of needs 70 GB (Final Fantasy XIII-1) Thats nearly 30’000 times more space which you can get for less money then the HDD space back then for Master of Magic. 
You can see the same effect – HDD space costs less and less money - on the steem price, too. The price graph is a very nice, smooth version of what you see in those inflationary scenarios. 
http://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/steem/

Intentionally or not, this high inflation together with the “powering down” also means the whole system is a ponzi scheme. You can double your money in the time you need to get 50% of it. That translates to that only those who have a lot of steem at the start can get a lot of money out in a market where the prices fall (which is inevitable at those settings). 
<br>

<b>I bet all my current accounts steem (16,8) that the steem price (currently $0.171879 as coinmarketcap says) at the end of next year (December 2017) will be under 5cents if the high inflation is going on. </b>
The first one in the comments accepting the bet has the chance to win, nothing to lose!


## Comparison Example

Of course, that’s finance. So it has not adhere to the laws of mathematics, right? So let’s compare.

https://pixabay.com/static/uploads/photo/2015/02/09/22/03/mobile-630289_960_720.jpg

Cryptocurrencies are not the first internet money. I know a lot that are older. They all go the same way because of high interests.

Lets look at one, the biggest and oldest I know of: Klamm-Lose 
Lose first were a sort of bonus, but since it was damn easy to transfer them (you just needed the receiving users account number) it changed to a currency real fast. 
There were gaming sites, “banks” and advertisement networks. Yes, you could buy banners and leads and other ads with Lose and earn them if you put those ads on your website!

Back in 2004 when I joined I got a 6-digit member number and the old veterans where complaining about the falling prices of the Lose. Back in the good ol’ days they were traded by the Kilos (thousands) not by the millions. 
When I joined you could buy 1 million Lose for 6,00€. I saw it falling down to 1,00€ per million, 30cents, 10 cents and going on strong downwards.

Today Klamm has 382K users in total (dont ask me how many active).
There were 2500 active in the last 15 minutes on a workday morning. 
Compare that German-only website to international steemit if you wish.

Todays Lose price is 20€ per million.
Huh?
What happened? Why has the price risen?
In fact it has not. Klamm just killed 6 zeroes off the numbers. Blame the Hyperinflation.
The price based on the old Lose would be 0,002cents per million or 1/30’000th of the worth when I joined in July 2004!

<b>With 90% interest on steem power steem is doomed to go down the same slippery, very steep road!</b>
Thank you for reading this far, as it is just the rumblings of a noob after all ;)

<br>
PS: I think I will still post things (after the November NaNoWriMo is over), but for other reasons then money. I do not think I will get any money out of steem.