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Although several insiders were anxiously awaiting the event, the market seemed to ignore it altogether. The price of bitcoin, which has increased in recent days, has dropped only 5% from 2,875 to 2,718 dollars, according to the site Coinmarketcap.com.
"I think this currency will not take off," said Daniel Masters, director of Global Advisors, owner of the Global Advisors Bitcoin investment fund. "I think the cash bitcoin will make a place, but it will be a low cost currency compared to the bitcoin. In three months, I would be very surprised if it reached a value over $ 50. "(Its current price is $ 470.)
However, it is the first time in the history of the bitcoin that a new currency created from the bitcoin carries a name that could be confused with the original. If it is too early to know, this potential confusion could one day become a problem for what has been considered digital gold.
When a token based on a blockchain (transparent, secure, and operating without a central control body) is forked (fork: branch, division from a common base) As the cash bitcoin did, it gives owners of the original currency an equal number of coins in the new currency. For this reason, the CEO of another crypto-currency, the Dash, challenged the idea that the bitcoin had been "forked", writing the following words by email: "Developers have created a new digital currency and have Put effective means to distribute it, giving it to anyone who owns bitcoins. "
The number of cash bitcoins in circulation is unknown. Holders of bitcoins, which have retained their coins on services such as Coinbase, Wapo and Bitmex, which have also announced that they will not be able to support the cash bitcoin, would have received nothing from the new currency unless they had withdrawn their coins from services Of these companies before the occurrence of the fork.
However, a significant number of people made sure to be in the posture of receiving what was essentially free money given. The statistics firm of the blockchain indicated in a tweet that the number of bitcoin on the Coinbase storage platform had collapsed by 50%, going from 800,000 bitcoins to less than 500,000.
"Those who support the bitcoin will sell bitcoin cash to buy more bitcoins," said Vinny Lingham, CEO of the blockchain identity startup named Civic, and nicknamed the oracle of the bitcoin. "There are tons of cash bitcoins in the market, and people will not hesitate to sell them to buy more bitcoins."
But by examining the history of crypto-currencies, it can be seen that a small, dissatisfied minority can keep alive a fork currency. It is in a few words what happened last summer, after Etheretum suffered a break and those who disagreed with the decision (as well as the ardent defenders of the bitcoin who think that a The only blockchain, the bitcoin, will succeed) set out to buy and stimulate the price of the original currency, now called "ethereum classic".
If there is any obvious result of the three years of the acrimonious fight that is raging in the bitcoin community, it is that this fight has generated a number of disillusioned players. Indeed, the separation that took place on Tuesday was only a fork among three such threats in the past. One of these threats was that which was to occur on 1 August. This was a way to force an update called SegWit into the network without the consent of the miners. The advocates of this move adopted a militant and combative stance, making it clear that their movement was a declaration of war against the Bitcoin miners. This movement is called "user-activated soft fork", or UASF.
The UASF appeared when the main developers declared that they would adopt SegWit if 95% of the minors reported their support. But when only 30 to 40 percent of minors came forward, some developers and their supporters rejected this choice of minors. This is why, as Vinny Lingham says, miners have rallied rather behind a compromise called the New York Accord, or SegWit2x.
This compromise was forged by the most important economic actors of the bitcoin community, including some of the biggest miners at the head of the network. Now that enough minors have opted for SegWit2x, the network will adopt, first, SegWit in August, and then, in November, a hard fork to double the amount of data the network can handle, from 1MB to 2MB.
So if SegWit and network members at 2MB get all they want, what can be the remaining embitteries? It could be those for whom 2 MB are not enough. Previous groups proposed a capacity of 20 MB, 8 MB, or even a flexible limit. The 2 MB proposal was a compromise for those who did not want large blocks. The cash bitcoin, however, has blocks of 8MB (but not SegWit).
Because enough people are not interested in large blocks, Lingham is not quite confident in the idea that the cash bitcoin will deplete. In the bitcoin sphere, the only motivation that miners have to dig is the certainty that they will make enough profit on their investment and their electricity costs. "Here's what people do not understand about the bitcoin. Miners are only concerned about money. They have no interest in the bitcoin, "notes Lingham, adding that a hedge fund could find it profitable to spend $ 1 billion in the purchase of cash bitcoins and boost the price. Because the difficulty of cash bitcoin (how complex it is for a computer to find the next block in the blockchain) would be low compared to that of the bitcoin, miners might find it more advantageous to undermine the cash bitcoin in a matter of weeks. "It just requires a person who has a lot of money to think that they're going to create a market," says Lingham.
He also assumes that this could be part of a long-term plan for the supporters of the cash bitcoin. "There is too much effort to do what they have just done without a strategy for the consequences. Never underestimate your opponents. They might have prepared, having bought a ton of bitcoins a year ago, cheaply, "he said. "The world of the bitcoin is a lion's den, anyone with a lot of money can wreak havoc on the market, without there being any way to stop them. There are no internal trade laws. "It would be easy to manipulate a currency whose market capitalization is not even 1 / 10th of that of Google, he explains. "All it takes is a rich person, like a fund of sovereign wealth."
Lingham proposed a scenario on how such manipulation would unfold. "I would be spending my own money in brands, making sure the cash bitcoin is accepted. I would then buy bitcoin companies and convert them into bitcoins cash. This would confuse people who buy cash bitcoin, because they would think they were dealing with the real bitcoin. "
Meanwhile, the bitcoin must still face its own test in November: the hard fork part of Segwit2x which doubles the block size limit to 1 MB. While many have wondered if the developers and their supporters, who only wanted the SegWit, would get to the bottom of the second half of the SegWit2x compromise, Lingham said that the cash bitcoin improved the perception of SegWit2x. The cash bitcoin has done enough to put the market under tension, and this could be enough to bring even ideological purists to compromise.
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