A realistic and affordable approach to UBI based on UK data. by marcusorlyius

basicincome · @marcusorlyius · Jul 18 '16 (edited)

A realistic and affordable approach to UBI based on UK data.

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<p><a href="http://citizensincome.org/research-analysis/evaluation-of-a-citizens-income-scheme-that-retains-and-recalculates-means-tested-benefits-and-that-sets-the-working-age-adult-citizens-income-at-54-20-per-week-particularly-in-relation-to-the-nu/">Here's a proposal by Citizens Income Trust</a> which would be revenue neutral with a 3-3.5% tax increase across the board and the personal allowance scrapped. <a href="http://www.compassonline.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/UniversalBasicIncomeByCompass-Spreads.pdf">Here's some other proposals by Compass (pdf)</a> and their preferred scheme would cost an extra £8.2 billion.</p>
<p>Here's my own research on the subject.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.gov.uk/jobseekers-allowance/overview">Jobseeker's Allowance</a></p>
<p>18 to 24 - up to £57.90<br>
25 or over - up to £73.10<br>
Couples (both aged over 18) - up to £114.85</p>
<p><a href="https://www.gov.uk/child-benefit/what-youll-get">Child Benefits</a></p>
<p>Eldest or only child - £20.70<br>
Additional children - £13.70 per child</p>
<p><a href="http://www.ukpublicspending.co.uk/year_spending_2014UKbn_14bc1n_4000444502#ukgs302">In 2014, GDP was £1,755.9 billion and the total government spending was £732.7 billion.</a> Now, if you deduct unemployment benefits (£4.9 billion) and family and children benefits (£16.4 billion) from the total government spending you get £711.4 billion.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.neighbourhood.statistics.gov.uk/HTMLDocs/dvc219/pyramids/index.html">In 2014, the population was 64,596,752. 13,687,654 people were under 18 and 50,909,098 people were 18 or over</a>. If you gave everyone 18 or over £70 per week that comes to £185.31 billion. If you gave everyone under 18 £20 per week that would come to £14.24 billion. This would have increased the total government spending to £910.95 billion.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/416484/stats_summary_feb15_revised.pdf">In 2014, the number of people claiming Employment and Support Allowance was 2.23 million and the number of people claiming State Pension was 13 million (pdf)</a>. Those claimants could have their benefits reduced by £70 per week, reducing ESA costs by £8.12 billion and State Pension costs by £47.32 billion. This would have reduced the above revised total government spending to £863.63 billion or 49.18% of GDP. <a href="http://www.ukpublicrevenue.co.uk/year_revenue_2014UKpn_15pc1n#ukgs302">The government revenue for 2014 was 36.68% of GDP</a>.</p>
<p>With the above changes, the total government spending would have increased by £131 billion or 7.46% of GDP.</p>
<p><a href="http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20160105160709/http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/lms/labour-market-statistics/december-2014/statistical-bulletin.html">There were 30.8 million people employed at the end of 2014</a>. If the burden to pay that 131 billion was distributed equally amongst all those workers they'd have to pay an extra £81.79 each per week. Now, given that they'd also be getting £70 UBI, every worker would only actually be £11.79 per week worse off. Given that this UBI would cost an extra £131 billion and scheme 1 of the Compass report would cost an extra £140.8 billion, it stands to reason that a 3% tax increase across all income tax bands would be enough to fund it.</p>
<p>In summary, this UBI would replace Jobseeker's Allowance and Child Benefit entirely and it would reduce Employment &amp; Support allowance (sickness/disability benefit) and state pension by the amount of UBI. All other variable benefits such as housing and council tax would remain unchanged because those benefits vary wildly depending on personal circumstances. While this UBI is pretty low, it's a realistic and affordable implementation that can be built upon later.</p>
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👍 marcusorlyius, michaellamden68, mikefromtheuk, theia7, riseofth

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