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The Trump/Biden 2020 Game by nealmcspadden

View this thread on: hive.blogpeakd.comecency.com
· @nealmcspadden · (edited)
$31.03
The Trump/Biden 2020 Game
Welcome to the Trump/Biden 2020 Game!

![6262122778_997339a086_c.jpg](https://files.peakd.com/file/peakd-hive/nealmcspadden/Apd2VILB-6262122778_997339a086_c.jpg)

[See the latest update here](https://peakd.com/trumpbiden/@nealmcspadden/trump-biden-game-meta-for-2020-11-03-update-peer-to-peer-mode-is-open)

Peer-to-peer mode is now open. So the total escrow of 22,425 SWAP.HIVE is fixed. All future trades will be between individual players.

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/563408316336963584/776066864601366538/election.png

# Winning Conditions
I've had a lot of people commenting and messaging me about when payouts will happen. So I'm putting it here so everyone can see at the same time.

Win Condition 1: One candidate concedes to the other
Win Condition 2: One candidate (Trump or Biden) is sworn into office
Win Condition 3: Neither Trump nor Biden is sworn in by Jan 20

Examples:
* Trump concedes to Biden. BIDENWINS holders will be paid.
* Neither concede, Trump is sworn into office on Jan 20. TRUMPWINS holders will be paid.
* Biden wins officially, but steps down for "health reasons" and Harris is sworn in. NOBODY holders will be paid.

At the time of writing media outlets are saying Biden won, but nothing is official yet and neither candidate has conceded.

# How the Game Works
The game is very simple:
* ~~1,000,000 TRUMPWINS Coins are available for 1 SWAP.HIVE each~~
* ~~1,000,000 BIDENWINS Coins are available for 1 SWAP.HIVE each~~
* ~~1,000,000 NOBODY Coins are available for 1 SWAP.HIVE each~~
* * You choose which token you want to buy and how many
* After the election,
* * If Trump wins, all SWAP.HIVE funds from buyers will be distributed to TRUMPWINS owners
* * If Biden wins, all SWAP.HIVE funds from buyers will be distributed to BIDENWINS owners
* * If the election is contested, funds will be held until a winner is declared.
* * If neither Trump nor Biden are sworn in on Jan 20, 2021, all SWAP.HIVE funds from buyers will be distributed to NOBODY owners
* * If neither Trump nor Biden are sworn in on Jan 20, 2021, all SWAP.HIVE funds from buyers will be distributed to NOBODY owners

# Markets

TRUMPWINS: https://hive-engine.com/?p=market&t=TRUMPWINS
![image.png](https://files.peakd.com/file/peakd-hive/nealmcspadden/YMl01iwr-image.png)

BIDENWINS: https://hive-engine.com/?p=market&t=BIDENWINS
![image.png](https://files.peakd.com/file/peakd-hive/nealmcspadden/oYax7lDx-image.png)

NOBODY: https://hive-engine.com/?p=market&t=BIDENWINS
![image.png](https://i.gyazo.com/75045e64d29b628b1aba946b02b27eda.png)

NOBODY: https://hive-engine.com/?p=market&t=BIDENWINS
![image.png](https://i.gyazo.com/75045e64d29b628b1aba946b02b27eda.png)

# Wallets
This is blockchain, and everything is transparent. You can view the wallet balances of each side to consider your odds.

Escrow balance: https://hive-engine.com/?p=balances&a=electiongame2020
~~TRUMPWINS escrow balance: https://hive-engine.com/?p=balances&a=trumpwins~~
~~BIDENWINS escrow balance: https://hive-engine.com/?p=balances&a=bidenwins~~
~~NOBODY escrow balance: https://hive-engine.com/?p=balances&a=nobodywins~~
~~NOBODY escrow balance: https://hive-engine.com/?p=balances&a=nobodywins~~

If you are on a discord channel like [LeoFinance](https://discord.gg/n95zNjZ) that has @gerbot on it, you can use the ^election command to view current balances.

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/563408316336963584/755428810912038912/election.png

This shows that curently, there are 3230 tokens in the game, 21000 on TRUMPWINS, 1117 on BIDENWINS, and 13 on NOBODY.

If the election were called right this moment and Trump won, TRUMPWINS holders would win 89% over their stake. If neither were to win with these numbers, NOBODY holders would win 247053% over their stake. If Biden were to win with these numbers, BIDENWINS holders would win 189% over their stake. If neither were to win with these numbers, NOBODY holders would win 24700% over their stake.

## Disclosure
I have 100 on TRUMPWINS and 30 on NOBODY

Check back on this post for updates!
👍  , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , and 123 others
👎  , ,
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vote details (190)
@bluerobo ·
What a great idea!
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@nealmcspadden ·
Thanks! 
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@brianoflondon ·
I'd love to join but for betting on Trump, the odds are terrible here!
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@nealmcspadden ·
$0.32
Interesting dynamics already afoot. If your subjective odds don't match the money odds, some arbitrage is needed. 
👍  
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vote details (1)
@brianoflondon ·
Back in 2016 betting in May I got odds of 10/3 in the UK on Trump and made a nice win on £1000 stake. The odds this time round are already lower, but Biden is still the favourite in all the places I've looked except here.

![Paddy Power Trump win bet email build a wall  1.jpg](https://files.peakd.com/file/peakd-hive/brianoflondon/VZgPd2c1-Paddy20Power20Trump20win20bet20email20build20a20wall20-201.jpg)



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@bwar ·
$0.04
Isn't this the exact same thing as TRPY & TRPN?
👍  , ,
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vote details (3)
@nealmcspadden ·
Huh, never heard of these until just now. It's pretty similar.
properties (22)
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@underground ·
same exact thing except you are not selling 1:1 
LOL
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@cryptictruth ·
Well time to pay up Biden2020
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@nealmcspadden ·
Winning conditions are when one candidate concedes or someone is sworn in on Jan 20.
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@cryptictruth ·
Got it. What are are the overall totals for the coins sold?
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@dalz ·
lol ... aint we creative :)
I'm going for Biden
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@inertia ·
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MiJkdCkOQco
👍  
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vote details (1)
@underground ·
$0.03
# I LOVE IT! EATING THEIR OWN!!! 
# 😂😹🤣🤣🤣
👍  ,
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vote details (2)
@underground · (edited)
$0.03
Props to Jimmy Dore,  make the 'Rats accountable to their Voters!

CATO INSTITUTE estimates that 62% of Trump Supporters will never 
voice their support to a pollster, co-worker or anyone, they will just 
quietly check the box for the incumbent...
👍  ,
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vote details (2)
@nealmcspadden ·
I think the game is going to be lots of fun
properties (22)
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@cryptoknight12 ·
And we all get to see who's on what side since it's on the blockchain ;)
👍  ,
properties (23)
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vote details (2)
@darkflame ·
Imagine if the election for the united states was done on chain and it was easy to count and verify the votes.
👍  
properties (23)
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vote details (1)
@brianoflondon ·
Microsoft Election Guard, the code is on GitHub.
👍  
properties (23)
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vote details (1)
@nealmcspadden ·
This is inevitable in my opinion and there have already been a few moves in that direction. 

There will be government oracles (tax returns, social security numbers, etc) that permit account registration. 
👍  
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@drakos ·
$0.02
It's a no brainer (yeh, that's Biden). Trump wins. Place your bets.
👍  , ,
👎  
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vote details (4)
@hiveqa ·
I'm gunna drop a five hundo on this sucker shortly!
👍  
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vote details (1)
@nealmcspadden ·
Insert Biden not completing a sentence here
👍  
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vote details (1)
@enforcer48 ·
$0.02
Time to buy all the coins!
👍  ,
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vote details (2)
@nealmcspadden ·
Guaranteed win with no money!
👍  
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vote details (1)
@hiveqa ·
I like where this is going. Shall jump in shortly!
👍  
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vote details (1)
@inertia ·
> Shall jump in shortly!

How?  Where are you going to short these?
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@hiveqa ·
Gunna drop me some huge Hive on it! 😃
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@nealmcspadden ·
$0.05
The more the merrier!

And like I said on twitter, if you have those annoying friends or family members that won't shut up make them put up some HIVE 🤣
👍  ,
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vote details (2)
@hiveqa ·
Good point on the annoying friends and family make them get some HIVE! haha 😀
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@inertia ·
$0.14
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="und" dir="ltr"><a href="https://t.co/X0ZU9Ke4sX"><img src="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EfwbD_QU4AEIoc1?format=jpg&name=large" /> </a></p>&mdash; inertia (@inertia186) <a href="https://twitter.com/inertia186/status/1295940588991205376?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">August 19, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
👍  ,
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vote details (2)
@nealmcspadden ·
Just goes to show you can click the clicker and still be elected President
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@inertia ·
As it should be.  I wish that's *all* he really did.
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@joebabana ·
This is tough, incumbent may have given rise to many late show hosts. LOL. Sad to see him lose it. 
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@mattclarke ·
They spent the last 3 years *telling* people why they voted for Trump instead of *asking* them. He'll win again. 
👍  
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vote details (1)
@phusionphil ·
So in!
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@poshbot ·
https://twitter.com/edbwt/status/1322622668928131073
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@preparedwombat ·
Winner to be declared on January 20th? 😅
properties (22)
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@nealmcspadden ·
As contentious as this election is, that's a good question. In a normal election, we have election night, someone concedes by the following morning, and it's all settled. 

Winning conditions can be determined by whatever happens first:
* One candidate concedes
* Someone talks to a Chief Justice on Jan 20

If we get some oddball scenario where a candidate concedes, then later changes his mind and starts lawsuits, I think we're just going to have to chalk that up to bad luck.
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@underground ·
$0.03
3rd option: DIMS so blatantly steal/delay the election, 
3%'ers come out and fuck up some Dims  😋

I  am hearing rumblings...  it would be now or never!
👍  , ,
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vote details (3)
@proto26 ·
Great idea! Should be a lot of fun! 
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@steemvpn ·
Don't forget to use a VPN when browsing online. 
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@steemvpn ·
Just a few weeks left, did all the trump tokens sell? I cant see any on the marketplace
properties (22)
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@taskmaster4450 ·
Interesting concept.

Are people buying the token of the one they want to win?  Or that they think will win?  That could be two different options.

Also, are people playing the arbitrage game?  Depending upon how the token purchasing is going, perhaps it is a better payoff going for the "underdog".  If the token purchasing is heavily weighted in one direction, that could mean the financial opportunity could be in the other camp.

A lot of ways for people to play this one.
👍  
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vote details (1)
@nealmcspadden ·
> Are people buying the token of the one they want to win? Or that they think will win? That could be two different options.

Yes :)

Look at today's update: https://peakd.com/trumpbiden/@nealmcspadden/trump-biden-game-meta-for-2020-08-20-trump-ahead-2-73-to-1

and you'll see that I fully expect real-life odds to arb current-game-odds.

It's going to be an interesting couple of months.
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@timhorton ·
@darkflame this seems like an interesting game!
👍  
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vote details (1)
@underground ·
$0.03
BIG BAWLS... 
1. Voting for TRUMP! (yay!!!)
2. Copying @silverstackerUK, a month later  
#  😂😹🤣😹😂
TRPY and TRPN  
Trump was also winning there, last I saw...
👍  ,
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vote details (2)
@underground ·
$0.03
WELL,  you have Smart Followers @nealmcspadden 
TRUMP:  70.9%
Bite-Me: 29.1% 

8/19/2020 9:45 PM  EST
👍  ,
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vote details (2)
@whatsup ·
What a great idea!
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@nealmcspadden ·
$0.03
Thanks! If only there were some trusted place to talk politics... lol
👍  ,
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vote details (2)
@underground ·
cryptowars.me

No Flags!! 
I have the 2 largest accounts hodling  INFOWARS TOKENS, 
and I will insure freedom of speech!
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