RE: Soccer Predictions using Python (part 3a) by outcast81

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programming · @outcast81 · Sep 23 '17 (edited)

You need a really high win ratio with odds like that. I'm too dumb to understand what you are using to calculate probability, poisson distribution  you said? I look it up and it seems rocket science to me.
 You need to realise something, the odds are infact probability calculated by bookies. You are just betting your software is better than theirs. Low odds are always going to have a good win rate. If your software can sort out the worste bets in the low odd games, you are a god.
But theres something definitly wrong with your programme..Its called soccer :/

FIFA 1904
NFL 1920

: ) good luck with the bets and developing this programme, I count on you, soon we will be racing our Lamborghinnis

👍 stevencurrie

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@stevencurrie · Sep 23 '17

The odds I listed are the odds my program is predicting, calculated from the probability.  Ideally, we should be able to find matches where my odds are shorter than the bookies thus indicating a "value bet".

7 correct results out of 10 seems like a reasonably good start.

Here are the results with returns for a £1 bet on each game.   28.6% profit.  If we ignored the Man City game due to the bookies odds being less than our prediction, it would have been 6/9 games correct and a 30% profit.

Match|Prediction|Bookies Odds|Return
-|-|-|-
Everton v Bournemouth|Home|1.8|£1.80
Man City v Crystal Palace|Home|1.15|£1.15
West Ham v Spurs|Away|1.65|£1.65
Rangers v Celtic|Away|1.59|£1.59
Bolton v Brentford|Away|2.16|£2.16
Derby v Birmingham|Home|1.82|£0
Leeds v Ipswich|Home|1.69|£1.69
Norwich v Bristol|Home|2.25|£0
Reading v Hull|Home|2.64|£0
Sunderland v Cardiff|Away|2.82|£2.82
-|-|-|£12.86

I'll the updated code and an explanation posted soon.

(I'm leaning more toward a Tesla myself)

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@outcast81 · Sep 23 '17

I see, the programme calculates odds to compare them with the ones in the bookies and find value. Thats genius ahah. For sure if you maintain this rate, you'll be rich no doubt.

👍 stevencurrie

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@stevencurrie · Sep 23 '17

If you're running a Linux distro, there's no reason not to try the code yourself.  I expect it'd be a bit more complicated in Windows, not sure about Apple stuff.

We can all get rich!

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