https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/oancIWus-Bitcoins-Big-Bears-Shakeout-Part-2-solving-the-puzzle-again/
I have been reading my comments, just so funny when people pop up AFTER a move has happened. I know comments like these are part of the job here on TV and i accept that. But what i don't like, is when people are twisting facts.
If i did not know any better, i would say i was also looking down 2 weeks ago, when most of the market was waiting for that 6K break downwards. I think i was the only one here on TV who figured out the puzzle about what was going on in the 6K's. Funny thing is, there were some people who were making similar comments against me when i said we would probably go the 8K's and maybe even the 9K levels, to shake out bears. To make the market bullish again, but while i was telling that, the same kind of people were popping up and giving the same immature comments about how crazy i was thinking we would go up, because it was 100% clear we were going down.
The same was going on when we were around the 11.500 and i said the market would never make that big inverse H&S complete and we would go down. Even then people were telling me how crazy i was thinking the market would drop. This just shows how emotional this crypto market is, most people get bullish around the highs and bearish around the lows. It's just how the human mind works.
Anyway, we have already reached the first big step, that market sentiment is very bullish at the moment, alts are making crazy jumps again and allot of people or talking about the long term low is already set. As i mentioned a few weeks ago, that 8K was probably not enough and that we could go in the 9K prices to really make everyone bullish again.
I am still flat since i sold my long position from 6710 at 8250. Because i was waiting for better prices around 7500/7700 to get in again. But we did not even get close and the market just keeps on going up. But i see no conviction at all. The small rally we made from the 8200/8300 has reached 8550 and is in the making of a bull flag . This will be a test for the market, to show it's hand now. If we drop below the 8200/8100 it will probably be a confirmation that it has failed. Everything above 8250/8350 if just a pullback to test the former resistance. I don't have at TA patterns to show you and make predictions on what price we can reach in the next few days. The movement in the 7900/8200 range was to strange too see what the plan is.
But looking at the Alts, since they have made very big rallies, my guess is new money has entered the market to buy again. I don't have the numbers, but probably 95% (of retail money) buys Bitcoin -0.55% to get in this market and not Tether. Which means the demand for Bitcoin -0.55% has increased more than it usually does. This does explain the strange and sideways movement we have seen the past week. Since yesterday i thought i was seeing distribution around the 8200/8300 because was just moving so slowly and sideways. In my original 'Bitcoins big bear shakeout' i said if price would not pull back towards the 7500 that i would probably start to short it around 8800/9000. So for now that is still my game plan. But i won't try to catch the high, i will wait to see some hesitation and weakness before i open my first short position.Alt's have just been moving so strongly the last few days, i could be wrong with my theory or jumping in to soon. Another option is, that price could still bounce up from the 7000ish extending this correction much more.
I have a theory to why i think i know what is happening, but i won't share it (yet). I might tell you guys about it if things DO go as i think. But it's a pretty sick theory and i really hope i am wrong about it, because it's some deep sick conspiracy sh..t :)
Most important thing that could happen, is that volatility comes back into this market, because that would make my job much easier in giving direction AND targets.
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Apr 21
Comment: So far this bull flag looks quite stable and strong, indicating it could make another wave up. But it's almost weekend again and volume will start to drop, but i think retail money is more active during weekends, and since FOMO is high prices could go higher.
The only target i can come up with looking at certain patterns is around 8700/8900. Doesn't mean it's a turning point but means it's a possible target. But when market is weak it tends to fall short.
For now a test would be a convincing break of the 8550.
hiveblocks