📈 Do you think Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow model is right? by resiliencia

View this thread on: hive.blog | peakd.com | ecency.com

hive-126009 · @resiliencia · Jun 1 '20

$9.26

📈 Do you think Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow model is right?

Hello!

For those who live under a rock and are not familiar with the Stock-to-Flow model from [@100trillionUSD](https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD), I will try to explain it first and then discuss if it is right or not from my point of view.

First we should define what is **STOCK**:
> Stock is the size of the existing stockpiles or reserves.

And then **FLOW**:
> Flow is the yearly production

With this 2 definitions we can define the **STOCK TO FLOW** by the ratio between the Stock divided by the Flow (yearly production). [@100trillionUSD](https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD) did the following calculations for the precious metals and the numbers looked like that:

![image.png](https://files.peakd.com/file/peakd-hive/resiliencia/W70sDHCg-image.png)

With all this considerations in mind he draw the Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow model (S2F) with their value and expected value over time. He also added colors showing the months until next halving. With this information is really easy to see what are the effects of the Bitcoin halvings over time.

Actually the graph looks like this:

![stocktoflow.png](https://files.peakd.com/file/peakd-hive/resiliencia/vzroW4vY-stock-to-flow.png)
[Source](https://100trillionusd.github.io/)

As you can see, the predicted price for Bitcoin after the last 2020 halving is almost 100.000$. On their 2019 article the model predicted a price of 55.000$. Note that the graph is logarithmic and some lines can mislead you, like this one.

## Conclusions

I think that this model is based on a really easy principle. The principle that the new yearly supply of an asset have a direct effect on its price.
It also supports that the price of the asset tend to reflect this ratio over time, maybe in a short timeframe can be quite different but in the long run it follows.

On a general basis I agree with that, I think this model is one of the best to follow out there. I am still thinking that there can be major influences that are not considered in this model, such as macroeconomic events like the Coronavirus crisis, actions taken by the government, etc.

If this time it is shown again that the prices are correlated with this model, we will be able to confirm that this model is 100% acurate. I will be patient until the next cycle is confirmed.

Enjoy! 😊

👍 tipu, redes, numberofthingz, vlemon, hodlcommunity, inature, resiliencia, pouchon, holm, ronaldoavelino, softworld, taskmaster4450, marfonso, linakay, bitrocker2020, cryptoxicate, ketcom, jerrybanfield, teammo, exyle, theestateof.mind, toofasteddie, daltono, kenanqhd, glastar, ezzy, gerber, otage, abrockman, ano123, michaeljn, beiker, steembasicincome, steemer-sayu907, ireenchew, jskitty, ikrahch, sevillaespino, amahovac93, intrepidthinker, world-travel-pro, badmusgreene, lagtvgames, tj4real, gandhibaba, huaren.news, kamchore, drag33, nattybongo, mistakili, hypersonic1, gharrington44, rangertx, nealmcspadden, digital.mine, myach, cryptohodlgroup, emrebeyler, joannewong, rightwing670, accelerator, daan, jluvs2fly, elizacheng, and 268 others

`author`	resiliencia
`permlink`	do-you-think-bitcoin-stock-to-flow-model-is-right
`category`	hive-126009
`json_metadata`	{"app":"peakd/2020.05.5","format":"markdown","tags":["hive","posh","bitcoin","btc","leofinance","palnet","neoxian","stocktoflow","stock2flow","100trillionusd"],"users":["100trillionUSD"],"links":["https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD","https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD","https://100trillionusd.github.io/"],"image":["https://files.peakd.com/file/peakd-hive/resiliencia/W70sDHCg-image.png","https://files.peakd.com/file/peakd-hive/resiliencia/vzroW4vY-stock-to-flow.png"]}
`created`	2020-06-01 12:16:36
`last_update`	2020-06-01 12:16:36
`depth`	0
`children`	15
`last_payout`	2020-06-08 12:16:36
`cashout_time`	1969-12-31 23:59:59
`total_payout_value`	4.862 HBD
`curator_payout_value`	4.396 HBD
`pending_payout_value`	0.000 HBD
`promoted`	0.000 HBD
`body_length`	2,299
`author_reputation`	442,948,723,392,550
`root_title`	"📈 Do you think Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow model is right?"
`beneficiaries`	`[]`
`max_accepted_payout`	1,000,000.000 HBD
`percent_hbd`	10,000
`post_id`	97,709,746
`net_rshares`	20,510,139,558,089
`author_curate_reward`	""

properties (23)vote details (332)

voter	rshares	pct
trevonjb	1,449,891,060	30%
gerber	208,521,799,844	3%
daan	57,909,501,982	8%
ezzy	234,817,262,549	3%
sinzzer	19,328,382,836	30%
exyle	288,777,788,421	3%
happyphoenix	24,769,755,471	30%
randomblock1	2,040,061,568	15%
theb0red1	37,833,966,920	30%
someguy123	42,988,641,083	3%
rangertx	80,504,612,428	30%
jungleonion	38,690,135,405	30%
mikehere	5,829,161,710	30%
team101	22,092,327,100	30%
rymlen	18,901,122,350	30%
gamer00	5,569,571,478	0.37%
redes	1,059,496,779,273	18%
bigtakosensei	12,255,125,287	30%
timothyb	25,808,068,783	30%
neuerko	46,051,916,655	30%
elizacheng	54,432,394,175	30%
hattaarshavin	16,864,600,298	30%
teammo	307,459,671,249	100%
intrepidthinker	122,878,578,470	30%
pouchon	714,226,178,571	30%
sharkface	5,062,290,585	30%
numpypython	1,648,072,868	30%
sames	16,922,797,662	30%
linakay	368,514,003,340	30%
dune69	11,284,557,885	3%
dolphinstudios	53,805,762,477	30%
pwny	29,437,784,815	30%
thelordsfinest	2,484,505,063	30%
holm	617,625,521,053	30%
stackin	33,803,198,419	15%
jerrybanfield	310,133,164,835	30%
world-travel-pro	116,216,906,799	30%
bitrocker2020	354,162,479,947	30%
cacalillos	52,357,875,664	67.5%
drag33	93,657,357,616	100%
tj4real	105,786,806,513	30%
mys	11,350,169,695	3%
rycharde	1,214,896,513	10%
reloadbeatbox	6,434,031,118	30%
mxzn	1,075,484,576	1.5%
greatvideos	6,221,074,253	30%
roncoejr	8,267,288,039	30%
kisom1	1,003,976,323	30%
gingerninja	1,871,523,101	10%
hotsauceislethal	31,816,368,726	30%
moemanmoesly	12,310,873,143	30%
kenanqhd	239,778,169,156	30%
whd	3,947,894,738	3%
imredryan	1,806,772,096	30%
toofasteddie	249,400,397,856	60%
sallybeth23	37,246,635,433	30%
akomoajong	4,572,851,600	30%
shitsignals	869,752,447	1.5%
madstacks	664,726,396	30%
ralph-rennoldson	615,341,982	1.6%
phelimint	15,124,641,541	30%
resiliencia	716,160,886,204	100%
sevillaespino	125,268,678,063	30%
syedumair	13,467,420,270	1.5%
otage	203,664,200,208	30%
aaronleang	30,454,587,108	30%
leir	2,400,815,046	50%
aftabkhan10	19,746,398,558	30%
cflclosers	21,526,751,869	30%
aferrell	1,065,520,411	30%
felander	9,323,519,973	3%
santigs	11,712,551,228	50%
zeugen	1,119,939,859	15%
tipu	1,385,726,720,714	3%
bboyady	9,398,934,655	30%
accelerator	59,306,050,511	6%
chimzycash	14,353,995,258	30%
vlemon	852,705,142,216	50%
yogacoach	702,940,205	1.5%
taskmaster4450	471,414,712,494	30%
roleerob	2,864,480,130	0.6%
deathwing	1,397,085,657	3%
plantstoplanks	13,365,993,888	8%
harpreetmaan	1,287,305,218	25.5%
jaforce	12,647,282,025	30%
pataty69	1,300,040,189	2.25%
caladan	9,506,282,383	3%
dbooster	13,279,796,935	30%
michaeljn	162,293,917,612	30%
drags	913,064,820	15%
myach	64,711,110,810	30%
mrhill	6,792,762,133	40%
blockbrothers	1,873,645,051	1.5%
tworealsolutions	13,581,092,657	30%
mattroconnor	8,392,069,121	30%
emrebeyler	61,765,488,376	2.7%
beiker	151,460,301,314	100%
xabi	52,887,790,246	30%
chekohler	21,411,219,431	10%
suzn.poudel	990,447,765	15%
elderson	3,226,693,217	30%
joannewong	60,257,746,315	30%
syedubair	12,564,968,917	30%
soluce07	1,980,031,753	50%
kamchore	96,821,684,627	30%
steembasicincome	145,715,588,802	7.52%
rombtc	21,718,789	30%
mitchadventures	13,743,717,565	30%
daltono	241,395,045,339	30%
zpzn	17,467,364,550	30%
bartheek	885,223,796	1.5%
slacktmusic	4,384,933,369	30%
gandhibaba	102,238,142,951	30%
nealmcspadden	79,593,211,584	3%
culgin	37,050,234,387	30%
warnas	1,881,657,684	0.5%
ikrahch	125,435,844,271	30%
badmusgreene	115,029,504,856	30%
gascap9000	50,513,454,418	30%
richgang	2,009,954,714	30%
mistakili	87,159,840,408	50%
jlordc	36,946,386,339	30%
investprosper	553,831,805	0.3%
anayakhan	409,519,574	30%
cadawg	5,616,059,881	2.1%
upfundme	5,507,093,582	4.5%
numberofthingz	937,589,122,360	30%
moeenali	47,986,654,871	30%
mamun123456	19,129,404,099	30%
happy-soul	13,565,994,617	1.5%
funkymunky20000	8,926,230,223	30%
abdulhanan	532,061,548	30%
pkocjan	1,536,310,021	2.4%
nain	591,827,837	30%
runningproject	15,050,476,593	40%
damajicman3	852,077,906	30%
cryptoslo	3,866,507,914	30%
robomode	1,342,621,833	30%
homeginkit	11,176,684,683	100%
makingthebest09	1,838,438,166	30%
ceptocide555	1,933,618,833	30%
randumb	18,749,056,000	30%
wrecktangle27	4,355,757,371	30%
altcoinbandit	646,690,943	100%
oadissin	2,299,890,271	7.52%
babarakas43	26,470,168,823	30%
limelightmg	20,340,794,881	30%
rativiv	20,386,008,058	30%
nickychu	17,836,378,375	30%
peerzadazeeshan	11,955,529,346	30%
greendeliverence	25,874,045,178	30%
beleg	1,345,725,484	3%
bestboom	22,493,595,858	3%
truce	1,870,691,995	30%
abrockman	203,012,964,070	30%
hypersonic1	86,693,996,529	30%
rawn	24,056,121,889	30%
mimidee74	6,584,030,931	30%
ronaldoavelino	494,913,249,270	30%
thomasbrown	40,935,679,354	30%
pg-live-pt	11,337,853,281	30%
racibo	1,453,733,957	15%
demondantv	22,740,951,238	30%
yameen	13,157,601,789	30%
run.vince.run	5,675,379,232	20%
freddio	34,915,242,315	15%
beastlybanter	19,627,435,404	30%
headcrypto	4,521,318,832	30%
tiket	11,749,854,815	30%
fcbarcelonafans	1,474,204,101	100%
ospro	8,708,134,316	30%
cryptokannon	47,345,792,714	30%
chinyerevivian	21,922,784,819	30%
cubby	649,133,157	30%
lordgod	1,867,166,926	30%
glodniwiedzy	773,866,777	2.85%
softmetal	4,225,743,261	30%
coolbot	6,640,202,196	30%
jancharlest	6,018,955,291	3%
rightwing670	59,609,667,211	30%
ifeoluwa88	19,500,078,421	30%
ragnar94	5,857,603,835	30%
amahovac93	123,638,533,440	30%
devilsdad	3,913,367,315	30%
syedshakil	510,439,347	30%
archisteem	2,495,399,194	7.5%
mrshev	713,605,030	30%
lagtv	780,484,342	30%
melissaofficial	18,435,301,651	30%
digital.mine	70,679,509,735	0.3%
byebyehamburgers	15,527,482,182	30%
hmetu	5,887,472,452	30%
marenontherun	712,697,858	20%
swisswitness	1,317,900,205	3%
nattybongo	88,850,229,799	30%
salimbur	26,153,835,637	100%
fabrik	871,334,249	30%
emsonic	22,960,056,097	30%
lilzmom902	9,546,731,444	30%
thedailysneak	2,114,363,803	100%
gallerani	1,438,524,361	3%
ireenchew	130,335,912,318	30%
jluvs2fly	55,286,153,354	30%
alexran	1,391,903,292	30%
lilcryptita	944,970,377	30%
julian2013	1,874,943,700	1.35%
dlike	36,008,400,329	3%
triptolemus	1,159,900,279	3%
master1992	1,434,268,666	30%
justinchicken	4,630,546,283	30%
steem-oracle	737,502,150	15%
theexcelclub	11,894,672,880	30%
maeusenews	11,593,305,897	30%
engrave	38,015,143,186	2.85%
cryptohodlgroup	63,165,966,619	30%
hiatus	12,951,835,590	30%
torrey.blog	19,024,192,661	50%
inature	736,163,252,858	30%
bobby.madagascar	3,068,204,110	2.25%
ticket4fun	5,572,699,489	100%
moderncraft	552,827,540	15%
marfonso	419,568,002,362	30%
tangela	798,373,599	15%
cryptoxicate	353,114,189,289	30%
jimbi	20,149,133,863	30%
followjohngalt	13,573,211,339	3%
glastar	236,792,516,811	30%
theestateof.mind	262,154,394,994	30%
nworb	16,324,204,193	30%
lagtvgames	106,759,373,015	30%
ketcom	330,652,676,047	30%
ferrate	23,083,891,441	30%
bittrio	6,583,883,375	30%
steemturbo	3,626,133,328	30%
steemegg	2,924,330,036	7.5%
cryptovues	16,535,065,687	30%
determine	1,434,323,630	3%
permaculturedude	553,114,237	1.5%
e-r-k-a-n	21,833,334,065	30%
snuff1	895,124,754	30%
maskuncoro	1,078,968,507	30%
trueexpressions	570,103,913	30%
tulwave	10,212,090,261	30%
brada2550	1,747,997,675	30%
paleotwist	8,071,992,463	30%
limka	302,591,798	100%
hans001	10,969,963,524	30%
jlordz	1,475,529,373	30%
c4cristi3	11,660,370,964	30%
foreversteem	2,528,555,467	30%
ano123	195,279,805,344	30%
gharrington44	85,302,179,042	30%
q-news	2,333,396,056	30%
potence	655,101,800	30%
blockchainfo	1,291,800,642	50%
jackramsey	5,268,182,545	25.5%
coreyssteemit77	3,357,266,759	30%
backscratcher	49,166,614,997	30%
x-tech	10,721,228,152	30%
red-devils	1,095,385,034	30%
coredump	58,817,199	10%
thecryptolink	661,306,831	30%
moro1992	2,425,413,492	30%
muhammad-wali	14,082,644,619	30%
xyzxyz	12,415,867,295	30%
trydice	7,809,141,160	30%
dark.light	2,709,358,396	30%
haxxdump	20,214,060	10%
kajmiere	852,544,090	30%
evanstinger	19,075,995,236	30%
ookii	22,126,333,796	30%
octalmage	23,240,145,073	30%
queengaga	9,843,921,542	30%
jalentakesphotos	899,800,821	10%
aekraj	21,795,975,625	30%
milu-the-dog	1,020,762,529	3%
h-hamilton	33,942,158,150	30%
triplea.bot	1,026,965,058	3%
steem.leo	22,075,605,856	2.97%
mindtrap-leo	407,069,966	10.32%
leo.voter	21,126,515,374	0.6%
vxc.leo	0	13.41%
freddio.sport	4,819,965,305	15%
supremebape	53,205,657,010	30%
kryptoking1	14,953,251,619	30%
asteroids	20,204,636,762	3%
midlet-yourleo	546,403,262	30%
dropthatcode	11,373,945,152	30%
thranax	11,430,827,518	6%
steemer-sayu907	139,484,840,628	30%
drlobes	2,796,581,439	15%
one.life	703,824,160	2.99%
pouchon.tribes	1,232,783,061	15%
citrus-soap	1,530,681,111	3%
ufm.pay	21,007,612,445	3.37%
maxuvd	10,808,621,891	3%
maxuve	29,194,733,122	6%
partitura.pal	327,130,183	100%
korver	27,459,387,107	50%
dhanagc	2,121,624,737	30%
naej	5,830,355,401	30%
tonimontana.leo	362,983,375	10.33%
blocktvnews	1,180,483,318	1.48%
huaren.news	98,283,189,659	3%
gerbo	0	3%
chibex	1,214,910,939	30%
umair-appics	2,592,181,916	30%
empoderat.leo	265,565,566	100%
ribary	938,811,993	1.5%
joy-only-joy	848,866,381	30%
photosnap	12,261,111,848	30%
lbebagz	3,493,396,169	30%
reksnek	8,395,100,304	30%
mice-k	11,409,912,963	3%
indianarcadia	1,235,344,104	30%
platino94	2,110,552,277	100%
sandyo	949,156,901	30%
steemcityrewards	4,173,151,163	3%
iamalisha	24,745,027,633	30%
wolven-znz	7,049,825,219	17%
romiz.amin	934,929,368	30%
jskitty	127,359,117,918	75%
rockor	1,194,008,335	15%
softworld	480,312,447,497	40%
polish.hive	7,235,448,519	3%
bobodan	46,963,023,545	30%
cryptolemon2	1,819,017,021	100%
blackgeek	5,774,999,437	30%
hodlcommunity	839,352,424,315	100%
hodl-fund	1,819,017,021	100%
blocktokens	728,567,108	15%
culgin.xpost	534,544,735	30%

@culgin · Jun 1 '20

$0.05

The model is created based on historical data and tested to be statistically significant. In other words, it is right until proven wrong in the future 😀

I think it makes sense but of course we should not just follow it with blind faith.

@tipu curate

👍 resiliencia

`author`	culgin
`permlink`	re-resiliencia-qb8yia
`category`	hive-126009
`json_metadata`	{"tags":["hive-126009"],"app":"peakd/2020.05.5"}
`created`	2020-06-01 12:25:27
`last_update`	2020-06-01 12:25:27
`depth`	1
`children`	2
`last_payout`	2020-06-08 12:25:27
`cashout_time`	1969-12-31 23:59:59
`total_payout_value`	0.028 HBD
`curator_payout_value`	0.021 HBD
`pending_payout_value`	0.000 HBD
`promoted`	0.000 HBD
`body_length`	251
`author_reputation`	170,100,255,531,223
`root_title`	"📈 Do you think Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow model is right?"
`beneficiaries`	`[]`
`max_accepted_payout`	1,000,000.000 HBD
`percent_hbd`	10,000
`post_id`	97,709,911
`net_rshares`	210,781,130,628
`author_curate_reward`	""

properties (23)vote details (1)

voter	weight	wgt%	rshares	pct	time
resiliencia	0 B		210,781,130,628	30%

@resiliencia · Jun 1 '20

This time is really exciting to analyze it closely! 
If it is right we'll see massive gains this years.
Thank you very much for the support! Really appreciated! 😊

properties (22)

`author`	resiliencia
`permlink`	re-culgin-qb8yrm
`category`	hive-126009
`json_metadata`	{"tags":["hive-126009"],"app":"peakd/2020.05.5"}
`created`	2020-06-01 12:30:57
`last_update`	2020-06-01 12:30:57
`depth`	2
`children`	0
`last_payout`	2020-06-08 12:30:57
`cashout_time`	1969-12-31 23:59:59
`total_payout_value`	0.000 HBD
`curator_payout_value`	0.000 HBD
`pending_payout_value`	0.000 HBD
`promoted`	0.000 HBD
`body_length`	162
`author_reputation`	442,948,723,392,550
`root_title`	"📈 Do you think Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow model is right?"
`beneficiaries`	`[]`
`max_accepted_payout`	1,000,000.000 HBD
`percent_hbd`	10,000
`post_id`	97,710,022
`net_rshares`	0

@tipu · Jun 1 '20

<a href="https://tipu.online/hive_curator?culgin" target="_blank">Upvoted  &#128076;</a> (Mana: 3/6)

properties (22)

`author`	tipu
`permlink`	re-re-resiliencia-qb8yia-20200601t122546
`category`	hive-126009
`json_metadata`	""
`created`	2020-06-01 12:25:45
`last_update`	2020-06-01 12:25:45
`depth`	2
`children`	0
`last_payout`	2020-06-08 12:25:45
`cashout_time`	1969-12-31 23:59:59
`total_payout_value`	0.000 HBD
`curator_payout_value`	0.000 HBD
`pending_payout_value`	0.000 HBD
`promoted`	0.000 HBD
`body_length`	100
`author_reputation`	55,955,007,523,366
`root_title`	"📈 Do you think Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow model is right?"
`beneficiaries`	`[]`
`max_accepted_payout`	1,000,000.000 HBD
`percent_hbd`	10,000
`post_id`	97,709,918
`net_rshares`	0

@ew-and-patterns · Jun 1 '20

$0.02

If the demand stays the same or increases and the supply gets cut in half every 4 years, what do you think is going to happen?
The price must rise significantly, it is inevitable as long as the demand stays the same.

👍 resiliencia
👎 dein-problem

`author`	ew-and-patterns
`permlink`	re-resiliencia-qb91gw
`category`	hive-126009
`json_metadata`	{"tags":["hive-126009"],"app":"peakd/2020.05.5"}
`created`	2020-06-01 13:29:21
`last_update`	2020-06-01 13:29:21
`depth`	1
`children`	3
`last_payout`	2020-06-08 13:29:21
`cashout_time`	1969-12-31 23:59:59
`total_payout_value`	0.014 HBD
`curator_payout_value`	0.002 HBD
`pending_payout_value`	0.000 HBD
`promoted`	0.000 HBD
`body_length`	216
`author_reputation`	138,703,829,387,626
`root_title`	"📈 Do you think Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow model is right?"
`beneficiaries`	`[]`
`max_accepted_payout`	1,000,000.000 HBD
`percent_hbd`	10,000
`post_id`	97,710,816
`net_rshares`	103,474,407,944
`author_curate_reward`	""

properties (23)vote details (2)

voter	weight	wgt%	rshares	pct	time
resiliencia	0 B		103,557,312,937	15%
dein-problem	0 B		-82,904,993	-1%

@resiliencia · Jun 1 '20

We just need to hope that the demand will stay the same and be really patient! 😊

properties (22)

`author`	resiliencia
`permlink`	re-ew-and-patterns-qb91pu
`category`	hive-126009
`json_metadata`	{"tags":["hive-126009"],"app":"peakd/2020.05.5"}
`created`	2020-06-01 13:34:45
`last_update`	2020-06-01 13:34:45
`depth`	2
`children`	2
`last_payout`	2020-06-08 13:34:45
`cashout_time`	1969-12-31 23:59:59
`total_payout_value`	0.000 HBD
`curator_payout_value`	0.000 HBD
`pending_payout_value`	0.000 HBD
`promoted`	0.000 HBD
`body_length`	80
`author_reputation`	442,948,723,392,550
`root_title`	"📈 Do you think Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow model is right?"
`beneficiaries`	`[]`
`max_accepted_payout`	1,000,000.000 HBD
`percent_hbd`	10,000
`post_id`	97,710,909
`net_rshares`	0

@ew-and-patterns · Jun 1 '20

$0.03

Exactly. Buying BTC is basically a bet on the future demand of bitcoin.
If you think that the demand will stay the same or increase in these times of worldwide chaos, you buy bitcoin.

Wallet adresses are increasing
Wallet adresses HODLing > 1BTC are increasing
BTC that is stored on exchanges is decreasing for nearly a year now
All of the above is bullish

👍 resiliencia
👎 dein-problem

`author`	ew-and-patterns
`permlink`	re-resiliencia-qb9226
`category`	hive-126009
`json_metadata`	{"tags":["hive-126009"],"app":"peakd/2020.05.5"}
`created`	2020-06-01 13:42:06
`last_update`	2020-06-01 13:42:06
`depth`	3
`children`	1
`last_payout`	2020-06-08 13:42:06
`cashout_time`	1969-12-31 23:59:59
`total_payout_value`	0.014 HBD
`curator_payout_value`	0.014 HBD
`pending_payout_value`	0.000 HBD
`promoted`	0.000 HBD
`body_length`	358
`author_reputation`	138,703,829,387,626
`root_title`	"📈 Do you think Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow model is right?"
`beneficiaries`	`[]`
`max_accepted_payout`	1,000,000.000 HBD
`percent_hbd`	10,000
`post_id`	97,711,021
`net_rshares`	103,576,690,362
`author_curate_reward`	""

properties (23)vote details (2)

voter	weight	wgt%	rshares	pct	time
resiliencia	0 B		103,659,595,355	15%
dein-problem	0 B		-82,904,993	-1%

1 reply

@f0x-society · Jun 3 '20 (edited)

$0.05

I don't think the model works @resiliencia,

- An increase in the price of BTC is primarily due to an increase in demand, not a reduction of supply (which helps but is not a fundamental driver of the increase in price imo)
- The model predicts that the price will go to infinity which is silly

Eric Wall did a pretty good mathematical analysis on why S2F doesn't work, it's somewhere on Twitter/Medium

I think the only reason S2F became popular is because it says "Number go up"... Bitcoin twitter loved it and now it's become a meme, retail driven markets want to hear things that confirm their bullish bias... that's all.

👍 resiliencia

`author`	f0x-society
`permlink`	re-resiliencia-qbcjy7
`category`	hive-126009
`json_metadata`	{"tags":["hive-126009"],"app":"peakd/2020.05.5"}
`created`	2020-06-03 11:01:21
`last_update`	2020-06-03 11:02:06
`depth`	1
`children`	2
`last_payout`	2020-06-10 11:01:21
`cashout_time`	1969-12-31 23:59:59
`total_payout_value`	0.024 HBD
`curator_payout_value`	0.024 HBD
`pending_payout_value`	0.000 HBD
`promoted`	0.000 HBD
`body_length`	626
`author_reputation`	6,344,211,686,970
`root_title`	"📈 Do you think Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow model is right?"
`beneficiaries`	`[]`
`max_accepted_payout`	1,000,000.000 HBD
`percent_hbd`	10,000
`post_id`	97,747,995
`net_rshares`	173,829,487,284
`author_curate_reward`	""

properties (23)vote details (1)

voter	weight	wgt%	rshares	pct	time
resiliencia	0 B		173,829,487,284	25%

@resiliencia · Jun 3 '20

Thanks for your thoughtful comment @f0x-society!
I will definitely take a look at Eric Wall and try to find their analysis! I love to see different opinions!

properties (22)

`author`	resiliencia
`permlink`	re-f0x-society-qbd3oe
`category`	hive-126009
`json_metadata`	{"tags":["hive-126009"],"app":"peakd/2020.05.5"}
`created`	2020-06-03 18:07:27
`last_update`	2020-06-03 18:07:27
`depth`	2
`children`	1
`last_payout`	2020-06-10 18:07:27
`cashout_time`	1969-12-31 23:59:59
`total_payout_value`	0.000 HBD
`curator_payout_value`	0.000 HBD
`pending_payout_value`	0.000 HBD
`promoted`	0.000 HBD
`body_length`	157
`author_reputation`	442,948,723,392,550
`root_title`	"📈 Do you think Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow model is right?"
`beneficiaries`	`[]`
`max_accepted_payout`	1,000,000.000 HBD
`percent_hbd`	10,000
`post_id`	97,754,845
`net_rshares`	0

@f0x-society · Jun 4 '20

Pleasure!

properties (22)

`author`	f0x-society
`permlink`	re-resiliencia-qbe164
`category`	hive-126009
`json_metadata`	{"tags":["hive-126009"],"app":"peakd/2020.05.5"}
`created`	2020-06-04 06:10:54
`last_update`	2020-06-04 06:10:54
`depth`	3
`children`	0
`last_payout`	2020-06-11 06:10:54
`cashout_time`	1969-12-31 23:59:59
`total_payout_value`	0.000 HBD
`curator_payout_value`	0.000 HBD
`pending_payout_value`	0.000 HBD
`promoted`	0.000 HBD
`body_length`	9
`author_reputation`	6,344,211,686,970
`root_title`	"📈 Do you think Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow model is right?"
`beneficiaries`	`[]`
`max_accepted_payout`	1,000,000.000 HBD
`percent_hbd`	10,000
`post_id`	97,763,738
`net_rshares`	0

@resiliencia · Jun 1 '20

Shared on twitter #posh:

https://twitter.com/ResilienciaHODL/status/1267430696156610565?s=20

properties (22)

`author`	resiliencia
`permlink`	re-resiliencia-qb8yaf
`category`	hive-126009
`json_metadata`	{"tags":["hive-126009"],"app":"peakd/2020.05.5"}
`created`	2020-06-01 12:20:39
`last_update`	2020-06-01 12:20:39
`depth`	1
`children`	0
`last_payout`	2020-06-08 12:20:39
`cashout_time`	1969-12-31 23:59:59
`total_payout_value`	0.000 HBD
`curator_payout_value`	0.000 HBD
`pending_payout_value`	0.000 HBD
`promoted`	0.000 HBD
`body_length`	93
`author_reputation`	442,948,723,392,550
`root_title`	"📈 Do you think Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow model is right?"
`beneficiaries`	`[]`
`max_accepted_payout`	1,000,000.000 HBD
`percent_hbd`	10,000
`post_id`	97,709,831
`net_rshares`	0

@softworld · Jun 1 '20

$0.10

I believe in the model, major influences affect all markets, not just Bitcoin. But I agree there are specific differences in Bitcoin as most of the investors just Hodl and those bitcoins never hit the market, that together with the fact that there are many lost coins makes every whale movement impact much more the markets.

👍 resiliencia

`author`	softworld
`permlink`	re-resiliencia-qb91ui
`category`	hive-126009
`json_metadata`	{"tags":["hive-126009"],"app":"peakd/2020.05.5"}
`created`	2020-06-01 13:37:36
`last_update`	2020-06-01 13:37:36
`depth`	1
`children`	1
`last_payout`	2020-06-08 13:37:36
`cashout_time`	1969-12-31 23:59:59
`total_payout_value`	0.048 HBD
`curator_payout_value`	0.049 HBD
`pending_payout_value`	0.000 HBD
`promoted`	0.000 HBD
`body_length`	324
`author_reputation`	1,250,526,072,115
`root_title`	"📈 Do you think Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow model is right?"
`beneficiaries`	`[]`
`max_accepted_payout`	1,000,000.000 HBD
`percent_hbd`	10,000
`post_id`	97,710,963
`net_rshares`	344,621,756,638
`author_curate_reward`	""

properties (23)vote details (1)

voter	weight	wgt%	rshares	pct	time
resiliencia	0 B		344,621,756,638	50%

@resiliencia · Jun 1 '20

Yes, this whales movements can affwct heavily the market valuations. Howeverif the tendency is to go upwards I don't care about what they are doing in the short term. 

Thanks for the support! 😊

properties (22)

`author`	resiliencia
`permlink`	re-softworld-qb93i1
`category`	hive-126009
`json_metadata`	{"tags":["hive-126009"],"app":"peakd/2020.05.5"}
`created`	2020-06-01 14:13:15
`last_update`	2020-06-01 14:13:15
`depth`	2
`children`	0
`last_payout`	2020-06-08 14:13:15
`cashout_time`	1969-12-31 23:59:59
`total_payout_value`	0.000 HBD
`curator_payout_value`	0.000 HBD
`pending_payout_value`	0.000 HBD
`promoted`	0.000 HBD
`body_length`	194
`author_reputation`	442,948,723,392,550
`root_title`	"📈 Do you think Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow model is right?"
`beneficiaries`	`[]`
`max_accepted_payout`	1,000,000.000 HBD
`percent_hbd`	10,000
`post_id`	97,711,555
`net_rshares`	0

@vlemon · Jun 1 '20

$0.05

Hello @resiliencia,

Nice post as usual. I understand the logic behind it but for example how do you value gold if there was no 'new flows' (let's say we do not find new gold).

This model is very inflationary for the bitcoin price as it is inversely correlated with supply. I hope it is right haha :D

👍 resiliencia

`author`	vlemon
`permlink`	re-resiliencia-qb90uf
`category`	hive-126009
`json_metadata`	{"tags":["hive-126009"],"app":"peakd/2020.05.5"}
`created`	2020-06-01 13:15:42
`last_update`	2020-06-01 13:15:42
`depth`	1
`children`	1
`last_payout`	2020-06-08 13:15:42
`cashout_time`	1969-12-31 23:59:59
`total_payout_value`	0.024 HBD
`curator_payout_value`	0.025 HBD
`pending_payout_value`	0.000 HBD
`promoted`	0.000 HBD
`body_length`	301
`author_reputation`	877,508,382,499,427
`root_title`	"📈 Do you think Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow model is right?"
`beneficiaries`	`[]`
`max_accepted_payout`	1,000,000.000 HBD
`percent_hbd`	10,000
`post_id`	97,710,632
`net_rshares`	180,468,072,149
`author_curate_reward`	""

properties (23)vote details (1)

voter	weight	wgt%	rshares	pct	time
resiliencia	0 B		180,468,072,149	26%

@resiliencia · Jun 1 '20

If there was no new flows the SF model cant be used, if you divide something by 0 it equals to "infinite". By the way I think that the value of gold will skyrocket to higher and higher prices over time.

It makes sense given the fact that no new gold can be created and we have a capped supply. 

Interesting question my friend @vlemon.

Find here the article where he compares the srock 2 flow model for Bitcoin and Gold and Silver, it seems quite accurate. 

https://medium.com/@100trillionUSD/bitcoin-stock-to-flow-cross-asset-model-50d260feed12

properties (22)