**Summary: Bull run can begin as soon as SEC providing positive signal for cboe ETF. Otherwise, we may have to wait until the reward halving of BTC on May, 2020 unless there is a positive black-swan event in between.**

Bitcoin is hanging out on ETF decision by SEC. If SEC provides any clue for approval for Cboe ETF, bull run can return as soon as next week. However, ETF decision should be taken within 20th March, the last date SEC can delay for the decision. Therefore, bull run can wait until March if the final decision is positive.

![1bear_bull2.jpg](https://ipfs.busy.org/ipfs/QmfBwP3A6CYyMRSiKvmmRzk29vsQdkGrVH97DbWDVbauQF)


However, if decision goes against BTC, we can see a real crypto-winter similar 2014-16 for another year or 1.5 years. There is a good chance in that case, we can see a bottom at $3K before things can be shorted out.

In May, 2020 BTC's reward will be halved. If ETF decision goes negative then on April, 2020 or close to that date, we can see the return of the long waited bull run.

In the meantime, a black-swan type event can trigger a bull run such as another severe Market crash such as 2008 or, bankruptcy by major nation. Or, even a positive event such as a nation's declaration of holding a portion of its reserve currency in BTC, or discovery of a breakthrough application/DApp that expedite the mass adoption of Cryptocurrencies.

Cryptocurrency market is very cyclic and both through and peaks are severe compared to other markets. BTC touched $1200 in December, 2013. It is now traded at 5 times to that value. It was traded below $1000 in last 5 years except last 2 years. It skipped values in between $6-20K in the last bull run. Therefore, a major event is required to trigger next bull run. It can be next month or one and half year from now.

In the next bull run, all the higher values of cryptocurrencies will be justified by the infrastructure developments that are already happening behind the back door. 

Steem has double the number of DApps and users, but it is still trading at same value as last year. Steem like other alts are severely suppressed in this bear market.  Therefore, it will blast more than BTC due its value suppression for a long time.

Cheers!

![Steemit-engine-ccn.png](https://steemitimages.com/DQmc1LPE11bNp3kiPSMDFRjGTHw1KXVqP5bHrFUYmYY1WHm/Steemit-engine-ccn.png)


Image sources: Most images are open sourced (e.g. Pixabay, Wikimedia etc.) with Creative common license. Some images are used with due courtesy to respected owners.

Thanks for reading.
@riseofth
Cryptominer since 2013, occasional trader and tech blogger
***
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