现象与本质【高考作文大奖赛】【月旦评】 by robin.han

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cn-gaokao · @robin.han · Jun 8 '18 (edited)

$0.65

现象与本质【高考作文大奖赛】【月旦评】

![](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmad9KDpyjs4rUKi3vJ3xUwD6zdmdjGLgKNhfbpDFBButr/image.png)
[图源](www.pixabay.com)

大千世界，包罗万象。
从宇宙天体，大道轮回，至蚂蚁缘槐，蚍蜉撼树；一枝一叶，均散发与我们周围。
隔壁大爷，两老伴拌嘴了；那谁谁家的孩子因为做不完作业在低声哭泣；窗外挂起了大风，却没有下雨，谁家漂亮的媳妇儿赶紧去收衣服去，却绊了个趔趄，嘴里低声嘟囔着不满。我们在看着，听着，也在经历着，前行着。可是，我们可有一刻钟曾停下来，去思考这些周围的一切。
>1941年，在第二大战期间，美国著名的统计学家沃德 教授受邀参加英国战斗机的改进工作，主要是减少德军地面炮火对飞机的损害。在对返回的飞机进行统计分析后，沃德绘制了两张比较表。一张是机身中弹多的地方，一张是机身中弹少的地方。多数人，应该在机身中弹多的地方加强防护。但沃德认为，应该注意防护弹痕少的地方。如果这部分有重创，后果会非常严重。而往往这部分数据会被忽略。事实证明，专家是正确的。

为什么？我们来梳理一下整个过程。
我们的目的是加强飞机的防护，减少炮火对飞机的伤害。
首先沃德统计分析的对象是能够返回来的飞机。这是我们可以看得见得证据，缺少了对那些被击落的飞机着弹点的分析，也就是缺少“沉默的证据”。
其次，可以看见“弹痕很多的”飞机仍能飞回来，说明这些地方不是飞机致命的地方。因为一旦中弹，飞机就坠落的“着弹点”才是致命的地方。
因此，若要对飞机进行防护，应首先对沃德分析比较表上，飞机弹痕少的地方进行防护。
综上可以看出，当我们在只注重看得见得现象时，如果不进行深入的分析，往往会忽略其背后的真正的意义。
就像隔壁大爷，日常的拌嘴是恩爱的一种行为。孩子做不完作业在哭不是爸妈的指责，而是对自己贪玩导致的内疚；漂亮的小媳妇的看似抱怨，实际却是在担心远方的老公的安危。
我们很多时候看见的现象，往往是事情本质的外在表现。但是这种现象并不能直接反映内在，需要综合其他现象来系统的分析。只有对现象进行系统的分析，才能发现其蕴含的本质规律。
牛顿的苹果，使牛顿发现了万有引力，也是如此。
---
**所以，
你眼睛看见的，并不一定是真的。**

---
感谢 @dapeng     [【高考作文大奖赛】](/cn/@dapeng/4cp2hs )，感谢  @rivalhw [【月旦评】](https://steemit.com/monthlyreview/@rivalhw/3zkhwp)，感谢 村长@ericet 耐心的指导 .同时还要感谢@mfxqaq,@hansheng，两位朋友的引领与陪伴。谢谢，谢谢@team-cn的村民们，是你们给了我投稿的力量。O(∩_∩)O哈哈~。

👍 dapeng, cnbuddy, robin.han, minnowsupport, ericet, cn-cutie.pie, cn-naughty.boy, fishlucy, aellly, team-cn, davidke20, annabellenoelle, getup, cryptostock, ching-chong, ubg, mfxqaq, liewsc, springfall, joeliew, vmkoko, cn-malaysia, yumisee, honoru, johnsonlai, xiaoyuanwmm, shine.wong, fiveguys, chick-fil-a, redlobster, dealmoon, moonbbs, chilis, bonefish, olive-garden, new-voices, lzg, yamibuy, nozuonodie, mitbbs, huaren, teamcn, wenxuecity, roy-rogers, teamcn-news, teamcn-weekly, tecire, jerseymikes, china-mobile, iipoh06, hansheng, julian2013

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@aellly · Jun 8 '18

可惜，到现在也没人点名我。西瓜真失败

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@hansheng · Jun 8 '18

西瓜哥，点啥? 点烟么?

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@robin.han · Jun 8 '18

怎么点名你啊？@aellly 是这样叫点名么？

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@ching-chong · Jun 9 '18

en，的確，但問題是目前人類已經處在大數據時代了，想深入分析許多現象都是非常消耗時間與精力的

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@robin.han · Jun 9 '18

所以大数据时代需要AI出现啊

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@ching-chong · Jun 9 '18

完全認同

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@cn-cutie.pie · Jun 8 '18

@robin.han, 棒棒哒~~~ ![img](https://i.imgur.com/Ksq5VCb.png)

👍 steemitstats, cn-naughty.boy

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@cn-naughty.boy · Jun 8 '18

@robin.han, 看到你的月旦评帖子，真是我的幸运啊！太棒了！

PS. 哟，@cn-cutie.pie 可可妹子来了呀，我好想你啊！

👍 steemitstats, cn-cutie.pie

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@cryptostock · Jun 9 '18

what's this? friend, nice to meet u.

👍 robin.han, cryptostock

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@getup · Jun 10 '18

re-robinhan-6sebbq-20180610t113926601z

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@hansheng · Jun 8 '18

在凑点字，800字以上

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@robin.han · Jun 8 '18

啊，不够吗？我统计了是800多啊，哦，包括标点符号了。

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`category`	cn-gaokao
`json_metadata`	{"tags":["cn-gaokao"],"app":"steemit/0.1"}
`created`	2018-06-08 15:53:18
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@hansheng · Jun 8 '18

哦那够了， 你打字太集中 所以我以为不够呢

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`category`	cn-gaokao
`json_metadata`	{"tags":["cn-gaokao"],"app":"steemit/0.1"}
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@joseda32 · Jun 9 '18

is this chinase or mandarin? I want to learn

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@julian2013 · Jun 8 '18

我是路过的，马上就走

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@minnowsupport · Jun 10 '18

<p>Congratulations!  This post has been upvoted from the communal account, @minnowsupport, by cryptowind from the Minnow Support Project. It's a witness project run by aggroed, ausbitbank, teamsteem, theprophet0, someguy123, neoxian, followbtcnews, and netuoso. The goal is to help Steemit grow by supporting Minnows.  Please find us at the <a href="https://discord.gg/HYj4yvw"> Peace, Abundance, and Liberty Network (PALnet) Discord Channel</a>.  It's a completely public and open space to all members of the Steemit community who voluntarily choose to be there.</p> <p>If you would like to delegate to the Minnow Support Project you can do so by clicking on the following links: <a href="https://v2.steemconnect.com/sign/delegateVestingShares?delegator=&amp;delegatee=minnowsupport&amp;vesting_shares=102530.639667%20VESTS">50SP</a>, <a href="https://v2.steemconnect.com/sign/delegateVestingShares?delegator=&amp;delegatee=minnowsupport&amp;vesting_shares=205303.639667%20VESTS">100SP</a>, <a href="https://v2.steemconnect.com/sign/delegateVestingShares?delegator=&amp;delegatee=minnowsupport&amp;vesting_shares=514303.639667%20VESTS">250SP</a>, <a href="https://v2.steemconnect.com/sign/delegateVestingShares?delegator=&amp;delegatee=minnowsupport&amp;vesting_shares=1025303.639667%20VESTS">500SP</a>, <a href="https://v2.steemconnect.com/sign/delegateVestingShares?delegator=&amp;delegatee=minnowsupport&amp;vesting_shares=2053030.639667%20VESTS">1000SP</a>, <a href="https://v2.steemconnect.com/sign/delegateVestingShares?delegator=&amp;delegatee=minnowsupport&amp;vesting_shares=10253030.639667%20VESTS">5000SP</a>. <br><strong>Be sure to leave at least 50SP undelegated on your account.</strong></p>

properties (22)

现象与本质 【高考作文大奖赛】【月旦评】 by robin.han

现象与本质【高考作文大奖赛】【月旦评】 by robin.han