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Boy…Let Me Quantify How Wrong I Was On The Price Direction Of Facebook by rollandthomas

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· @rollandthomas ·
$13.31
Boy…Let Me Quantify How Wrong I Was On The Price Direction Of Facebook
<center> ![](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmPHarkveW3rpjGXUW635pbXgotVnm4zMpRNs6Ft4trmk6/image.png)</center>

Three days ago I made a post titled,

 <center>[Google Told Me Facebook Will Hit New All-Time Highs Tomorrow]( https://steemit.com/money/@rollandthomas/google-told-me-facebook-will-hit-new-all-time-highs-tomorrow)</center>

 Some of the highlights of that post were:

 >Their daily active users sit are more than 1.5 billion and their monthly active users sit at more than 2 billion. Their fastest growing platform, Instagram just hit 1 billion monthly active users.

 >The chart suggest to go long on a pull back into the weekly demand at $188, but I don't think price gets there within any time soon and I think new all-time highs are made when the Markets open tomorrow.

Facebook earning came and went, but it made its presence known.  Facebook’s daily active users for the second quarter of 2018 was flat in the U.S. sequentially, and declined in Europe compared with Q1.  Overall, on a year-over-year basis, the DAU and MAU metrics rose 11%...not bad right?

But the kicker was the forecast that revenue will decelerate in the second half of 2018.  Facebook CFO David Wehner told investors revenue growth would decline significantly over the next few quarters, and that Facebook’s operating margin would drop from 44% in Q2 to the mid-30% range over the the next two years.

So let me quantify how bad I was wrong on the price direction of Facebook:

 *Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg’s net worth decreased by $15 billion to around $67 billion.

 *The massive drop in market value represented the biggest single-day decline in history for any publicly held company, according to Thomson Reuters data. 

 *Facebook loss $120 billion in market cap.  The next closest competitor was Intel back in 2000 when it lost 90 billion in market cap in a single day, with the third place winner going to Microsoft when it lost 80 billion in market cap in a single day, also in 2000.

 *The Smart Money got it wrong as well. Of 848 hedge funds tracked by Goldman Sachs, 97 had Facebook as a top 10 holding, according to the firm's May "Hedge Fund Trend Monitor" report...6 billion dollars in stock value vanished overnight.

 <center>![](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmZkscFnX3DuUqCgGY9fn5rxY5sSitfsUhoTxDACcy48pk/image.png)</center>

 <center>[Source](https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2018/07/26/hedge-funds-lose-nearly-6-billion-as-facebook-shares-crater.html?__twitter_impression=true)</center>

 *Facebook’s one day market cap loss of 120 billion is bigger than the value of:

 <center>![](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmaWc1K1BJV11eeEugkV5DTpytroU1bzFpZi7yAAHxEfDf/image.png)</center>

<center>![](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmVfLhroFjhXCTySPpwTUXVFzNDc5F2YUyyPRYqjWtkMgc/image.png)</center>

<center>![](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmWtSdJwpuFhie3ieZMAayXoAMtiwJ15dCXp2Ux9wGmrDk/image.png)</center>

<center>![](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmYJtenH15R6woY9dpHDF7zDdT9diQqmSom67fjxGWkWRg/image.png)</center>

<center>![](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmNQrapHRMA3QbQBn7RLjKPie5sQVrUVBVvYzEY822oCPp/image.png)</center>

<center>![](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmap7SsG85xr8iFhw9MWLGAYYgR7AmfLvkjUuT48KFhZCk/image.png)</center>

 *The chart says it all.

![](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmP3CZGeXhuS1d6TJhKxtFeJbZtPam1jRQ2Ed9qjwPPjsa/image.png)

 So here’s my next call regarding Facebook:

 Since revenue growth is decelerating (95% coming from ads), with the Markets topping, with Steem starting to become mainstream through SMTs, I think we have seen the highs in Facebook for years to come.  I’m calling $219 the high in Facebook especially if Apple doesn’t save the day for FANG next Tuesday when they announce their earnings.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn't financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
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vote details (102)
@bitbrain ·
I wish I had that sort of problem! Losing $15 billion of my net worth! I can't even comprehend being so wealthy: the mind boggles!
👍  
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@bluewinter ·
$0.15
The major concern now is the security of fb!
👍  ,
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@rollandthomas ·
Agree...STEEM BABY STEEM!!!
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@newageinv ·
The challenge also becomes how crowded the trade was... Billions trying to get out will continue the pressure downward in price.
👍  
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@rollandthomas ·
Awesome point, what will happen next is the smart money is going to push price back up to get out of there holding as @scaredycatguide mentions below before it falls permanently.
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@scaredycatguide ·
Considering I called January as the highs of the market (we may spike thru it and then dump) I am onboard with FB seeing it highs already, market isn't making sustained highs without FB probably.
👍  
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@rollandthomas ·
Agree, Markets have been topping since Feb. and Relative strength is losing momentum.  Still waiting for my sell signal before shorting the Markets to the downside.
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@workin2005 ·
Yea...I’ve never made a bad call. Ever. 😉
Nice post @rollandthomas
👍  
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@bitbrain ·
Me neither! 😂
👍  
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@rollandthomas ·
LOL...thanks @workin2005
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