England In A Recession...No Really by rollandthomas

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hive-167922 · @rollandthomas · Aug 12 '20

$5.30

England In A Recession...No Really

<center>![](https://images.hive.blog/DQmX6Cyb8iRcBU98r7hEGYAKagmVgsvyjGF22th2ZMFqi1M/image.png)</center>

The U.K. economy’s fall in the second quarter was the worst performance of any major European economy during the pandemic. GDP plunged 20.4%, double that of Germany.  This is the largest quarterly contraction in the UK economy since Office for National Statistics (ONS) quarterly records began in 1955. This marks the second consecutive quarterly decline after GDP fell by 2.2% in the previous quarter, technically putting England in a recession.

![](https://images.hive.blog/DQmTPLTMEVY1V3e3gJh9uwN3CZ4JPr3w9N4TimRGWjd6C1D/image.png)

<center><a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/12/uk-gdp-plunged-by-a-record-20point4percent-in-the-second-quarter.html">Source</a></center>

It’s worth noting, prior to the recession, January, England’s economy only grew 0.1% month to month, which was much weaker than expected.  So their economy entered the storm in bad shape.  The fundamental issue with England’s economy is the fact productivity has been low and hasn't been growing for years…I believe Brexit had a lot to do with this.

Three and a half years after the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union, the U.K. is still subject to all E.U. laws and regulations until at least the end of 2020 and this transition period could be extended by up to two years. And the U.K. faces a more daunting task: securing an agreement on its future relationship with the E.U., including the finer details of trade, security and data sharing.

The British FTSE 100, the index of the largest companies on its stock exchange, is no where near pre-COVID levels.  While the DOW, for example, is back to around 95% of its pre-COVID value, the FTSE is still down at around 83% of its pre-COVID value.

![](https://images.hive.blog/DQmf6GCf7LVirihEoevnyt8ws3ZDGgLPGWHMATRaqCqYBFd/image.png)


With all that’s going on right now in Britain, where is the British Pound heading next, lets go to the charts to find out?

Monthly Chart (Curve Time Frame) - monthly supply is at 1.4800.


 ![](https://images.hive.blog/DQmbudExQM4eF2PdfJfKc1kagyXduawcMwvHDUx7ZHsizow/image.png)
 

Weekly Chart (Trend Time Frame) – the trend is sideways.

![](https://images.hive.blog/DQmeKhxjxbFAF7LrcZ5J959YhAJmcnWfSWftxHSnZe6qfNq/image.png)


Daily Chart (Entry Time Frame) – since price is range bound at the moment, there is no set-up at this time. 

![](https://images.hive.blog/DQmdhP3mEHFLxSQWu2bzwAZZKU5sMeWUbW13roQotPDXyFv/image.png)

 
<p>This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn't financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.</p>
 <center>https://steemitimages.com/DQmRhDtjokAZnGKi4QwheqksKTFo6m4fsjMYsNNrsitC1xk/upvote%20banner3.gif</center>

Posted Using [LeoFinance](https://leofinance.io/@rollandthomas/england-in-a-recession-no-really)

👍 innerhive, hodlcommunity, kingscrown, spectrumecons, leo.voter, created, xxxxxxxxxx, vlemon, captainhive, livingfree, hivehustlers, boatymcboatface, preparedwombat, edkarnie, combination, localgrower, payroll, jskitty, justyy, theshell, cacalillos, defi.campus, platino94, armadilloman, break-out-trader, spg, justineh, georgeknowsall, mytechtrail, scaredycatguide, josediccus, culgin, paasz, teutonium, shanghaipreneur, superlao, vegoutt-travel, hivelist, idiosyncratic1, amico, leeyh2, chekohler, pixelfan, mitchelljaworski, yuurinbee-znz, thepeakstudio, leofinance, rollandthomas, gadrian, rihc94, enison1, hodl-fund, babytarazkp, steemstreems, gtrussi, beaupeep, not-a-bird, lemon-shot, dashroom, snoochieboochies, luppers, dmwh, flauwy, paragism, and 71 others
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@localgrower · Aug 12 '20

I am right in saying that for an economy to be in a recession there needs to be 'two quarters of economic downturn'. So, yes, according to this definition and the data we in the UK are in a recession. 

Although true, this seems that it won't hold any weight untill the news comes out and says that we are in a recession. I feel like we won't hear about this on the BBC for a while simply to BS the population. We don't have the unemployment of the US as the moment, because a lot of people are on furlough. However, I sense that there will be a time when the furlough ends (October I think) that these people won't have jobs to go to. Plus, when it hits winter there is likely going to be a '2nd wave' of COVID. Meaning perhaps more social distancing and job losses. I think the UK may even go into a depression. Am I right in saying that a depression is '4 quarters of economic downturn'? 

You mention BREXIT has had a part to play in why we were in bad knick prior to COVID. The whole thing has been a total shambles. 

Nice post though! Upvoted 100%!

Posted Using [LeoFinance](https://leofinance.io/@localgrower/qeyis9)

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@rollandthomas · Aug 12 '20

Your definition of a recession is correct, you are also correct in saying it's a lagging indicator.   Yeah I came across an article talking about will England go into a 2nd depression, but didn't read it for purposes of this post.  Yes, it appears that England is having a rougher time than Germany...which I didn't expect.

Posted Using [LeoFinance](https://leofinance.io/@rollandthomas/qeyjek)

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@shani.leo · Aug 12 '20

The news of the recession was published in the papers and on the [BBC website](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-53753189) today:
>Responding to fears that the economic turmoil could trigger mass unemployment, the chancellor said the government should not pretend that "absolutely everybody can and will be able to go back to the job they had".

>However, he added there would be support for creating jobs in new areas. 

I agree, though, poorly handled by the UK government.

Posted Using [LeoFinance](https://leofinance.io/@shani.leo/qeyo27)

👍 localgrower

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@localgrower · Aug 13 '20

GDP never went lower than -2.1% in 2008. We are currently at -20.4%. Good lord...

👍 localgrower

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