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Central Banks Need to Own Bitcoin to Guard Against Speculative Attack on Their Currencies by sean-king

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· @sean-king ·
$45.61
Central Banks Need to Own Bitcoin to Guard Against Speculative Attack on Their Currencies
Or so says two professors in this working paper written for the Central Bank of Barbados:  http://www.centralbank.org.bb/Portals/0/Files/Working_Papers/2015/Should%20Cryptocurrencies%20be%20included%20in%20the%20Portfolio%20of%20International%20Reserves%20held%20by%20the%20Central%20Bank%20of%20Barbados.pdf

From the paper:

>Given that digital currencies reduce the effectiveness of monetary policy at the country level, Plassaras (2013) argues for greater international cooperation through the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The author notes that typically central banks hold reserves to counter speculative attacks against the currency. They can also raise interest rates or intervene in the currency market. If the central bank runs out of reserves, it can draw down on its quota’s at the IMF. However, if wealthy Bitcoin investors launch a speculative attack on a currency there is relatively little that can be done at present as neither the central bank nor the IMF hold Bitcoin. Plassaras (2013) therefore argues that the Fund could either attempt to excise indirect control of the currency or it could offer the digital currency quasi-membership status. Such approaches will need to be further discussed as there are governance issues that would need to be addressed, however, given the growth of Bitcoin, there is a clear need to be prepared for potential speculative attacks and incorporate this means of payment better into the financial system.

Speculative attacks happen when the market sentiment turns massively against a given fiat currency in extreme ways.   Ordinary market participants, which include members of the general public trying to protect their life savings, then seek to unload the failing currency as quickly as possible.  This results in additional and accelerated currency devaluation (i.e, massive inflation).  That then leads to additional panic and selling pressure which then creates further declines.   Because there are no "fundamentals" backing the value of fiat currencies, this vicious cycle may persist until the currency goes to zero or a central bank successfully intervenes.   

Things get extremely difficult for central banks when wealthy foreign speculators, smelling blood, recognize an opportunity to make massive profits by shorting the failing currency.  These speculators may then begin to borrow massive quantities of the currency under attack, sell the borrowed currency units *en masse*  (thus driving down the price further), and use the proceeds to purchase a stronger and more stable "holding" currency (say the US Dollar or the Japanese Yen) or, ideally, a currency (like bitcoin) that has great appreciation potential.   By investing the proceeds in an appreciating currency like bitcoin, speculators potentially compound their gains, making money both from the depreciation of the currency under attack and also potential appreciation of the funding currency. Once the attacked currency has mostly or completely collapsed, the speculators close their position (purchase the now largely worthless currency and repay the loans) thereby reaping massive profits.  

Normally relatively stable currencies (rather than volatile assets like bitcoin) are used to fund speculative attacks.  However, the upside of using a volatile currency like bitcoin to fund an attack is potentially extreme while the downside is perhaps limited.  Despite its volatility, the multi-year trend in bitcoin prices is undeniably up.   Way up.  To the extent that a volatile funding currency like bitcoin may decrease in value over the short term against some benchmark currency (say that US dollar) on its way to new highs, those decreases could potentially be completely (or perhaps more than completely) offset by deprecation in the currency under attack against the same benchmark.   Hence, if everything goes as planned, speculators earn massively enhanced profits when the currency under attack depreciates against the benchmark while bitcoin appreciates against it at the same time, but only make a little, or perhaps break even, when both the currency under attack and bitcoin decline against the benchmark at the same time.    

Central banks typically fight off speculative attacks by raising interest rates.  Higher interest rates make continuing the speculative attack more costly and difficult for two reasons.  First, higher rates give savers and investors a reason to hold or perhaps even acquire (rather than sell) the attacked currency, thereby supporting its value.  By retaining or acquiring the currency, they can earn above-market interest rates.  Second, raising rates makes borrowing in that currency (an essential element of any speculative attack) far more costly.  Speculators are forced by pay extraordinarily high rates.  The attack is successfully thwarted if and when interest paid by speculators to borrow exceeds the returned earned by virtue of depreciation of the attacked currency plus any appreciation of the funding currency.  

However, raising rates comes at a steep price to the central bank, namely slower economic growth.  Raising rates to extreme levels risks economic collapse (since ordinary investors and consumers can't afford to borrow to finance growth and even servicing existing debt can become prohibitively expensive).   And yet, given the annualized historical returns on bitcoin (which could well be sustained or even accelerate into the future should bitcoin come to be used as a favored funding currency for speculative attack), fending off a speculative attack funded with bitcoin could require raising rates to truly unconscionable levels.  

However, owning bitcoin *before* a speculative attack could give central banks much stronger protection.   Namely, owing bitcoin reserves gives them another way of fighting off the attack without having to raise rates to unconsciounable levels.   By using bitcoin to fund the speculative attack, speculators would likely drive up the value of bitcoin, including the bitcoin owned by the central bank.  The bank could then begin to sell some of its bitcoin reserves in the open market in exchange for the currency under attack.   Provided that the central bank's bitcoin reserves were sufficiently large at the outset, it's dumping of bitcoin and purchase of the attached currency could offset the purchase of bitcoin and dumping of the attached currency by speculators, thereby upholding the value of the currency under attack.   At that point it becomes a game of "chicken"--who is willing to spend down their reserves the most and the most quickly in order to "defeat" the other, speculators or the central bank?   

Worldwide speculators have sufficient reserves to dwarf those of small central banks like the Central Bank of Barbados.   Consequently, were its currency to come under attack, the Central Bank of Barbados would certainly lose.  By acquiring bitcoin now, it would not make itself bulletproof, but it would make itself a far less attractive target for speculators than another similarly -situated central bank that lacked the foresight to acquire bitcoin early.   When being chased by a bear, it's not necessary to outrun the animal, just the slowest human.   

Before too long central banks, beginning with some of the weakest, will have no choice but to start acquiring and holding bitcoin.  Those that don't will see their currencies fall one after the other under bitcoin-fueled speculative attacks.   None will be will want to be perceived as the weakest and most vulnerable, and this could lead to a bitcoin "arms race".  

Until the last few months, the money supply and liquidity of bitcoin have been insufficient for it to be used effectively in speculative attacks, but that has now changed.   Assuming that bitcoin continues on its upward trajectory, I suspect that we will start to see very sucessful speculative attacks no later than 2018.   

And then the world will change.
πŸ‘  , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
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@chrismiller ·
They may as well have bitcoins, most national reserve banks don't hold gold or silver or anything worth any money.

Most of them have "money".

Foreign and domestic currencies.

Pieces of paper.

So they may as well have digital currencies among all the other  printed currencies.

My dads note on this would be: "Nothing is like it used to be, everything is just an illusion!"
πŸ‘  
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@deveerei ·
Cool article.
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@elena2017 ·
that is great!
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@galberto ·
$0.68
I think so this post is very nice i have never imagine that central bank could invest their international reserves in cryptocurrencies like bitcoin, in Central america around 4 years ago some countries sell a lot of gold of their portfolio  management international reserves and every people say, so what, are the central portfolio manager like crazy, they think our money desapear because our gold was selling, but with the nice  information the people accept it, but i do not know how the people will reaction if central bank say hey hellow i am investment your money or the money country in cripto, would a crazy opinions.
But what is bonds or notes is the same a value of air no more an promise to pay in the future.
Cripto has the same promise. Maybe maybe  nice post nice information thanks a lot.
I send it to our central banks management. Maybe their accept it. :)
πŸ‘  ,
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@gikitiki ·
$0.71
Most of the banks in Canada have already invested in Bitcoin.  Many have have open job offers for blockchain and cryptocurrency knowledgeable applicants. 

Thoughtful post.
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@joejustjoe ·
I wouldn't fight history if I was you. So far during every single financial calamity falling asset prices still ended up being priced in fiat currencies. As of right now you may soon find out that all cryptocurrencies were already priced as though the fiat currencies were already on their way to becoming worth zero. The block chain is where the value is and to me it "looks like" everyone is currently pricing bitcoin as if the future value is in its rise to being the replacement for fiat currencies. And the entire backing is coming for 1) People who became wealthy off of the current grossly mispriced tech sector...and 2) Chinese gambling houses getting rich off of mining bitcoin. Doesn't look anything close to "revolutionary" as far as I see it. You believers might actually have this thing entirely wrong but my "guess" is that you will get a chance to rethink you position soon. real soon.
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@sean-king · (edited)
You may be right, but I don't think so.  There's something that you are missing:  Network effects.   With any network, each new user improves the usefulness (and therefore the value) of the network exponentially, and this is known as the network effect.  It's so well known and well documented that we've given it a name--"Metcalf's Law".

There's a corollary to Metcalf's Law that says that, due to such network effects, any new network seeking to displace an old one must be at least ten times better.  Otherwise it can never overcome the incumbent network's advantage.  Facebook is an example.  You and I could start a new social media site tomorrow but, unless its somehow 10 times better than Facebook (as Steem might be), nobody is going to adopt it.  

Blockchains are simply special types of networks that can do things once considered impossible under the rules of computer science--they can achieve distributed consensus.   Distributed consensus has innumerable potential applications, many of which can't be realized until these blockchains can handle more bandwidth (become scalable).  

A third corollary is that once the exponential adoption of a network kicks in, it rarely ends until it either saturates the marketplace or something ten times better comes along to displace it.  Exponential adoption of technology doesn't just suddenly stop.  I challenge you to find instances where it has.    

The exponential adoption of Bitcoin began in early Jan 2009.  So, the network has been around for nearly nine years now, and its network effects have only accelerated each year along the way (through boom and bust cycles).  While price has been votalie, adoption has been comparatively consistent and trending upward exponentially.   Ethereum, though much younger, has shown the same pattern.  Steem, though much younger than Ethereum, has likewise demonstrated the same pattern (though less clearly since its so new).

In short, I think you are wrong to think of blockchains as currencies and to draw your conclusions about them by applying the tools of economics.   Blockchains are a revolutionary information technology and, as such,  should be measured and gauged by methods traditionally applied to tech .  Viewed that way, its hard to see how, absent some technical calamity or the arrival of something ten times better, bitcoin and certain other cryptocurrencies don't continue their exponential adoption.
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@joejustjoe ·
That's all good fundamental information but "regretfully" a real market many times does not price things based on fundamentals. I only track "the future of things" at ANY given time based on what investor/trader sentiment is saying at any given time. Since it is actually people who drive price it is more important to understand what they are saying about the price of ANY commodity/product/service than the things you mention. Right now it is my deepest opinion that you guys have it wrong...and "maybe" WAY wrong. Follow my blog if you want to find out what "the market" is saying about bitcoin at any given time. And make no mistake about it. As bitcoin goes...so will the rest of the cyrptos altho I'm sure there will be one or two that pop up periodically that will triple in value in a week becuase the crypto lemmings think it's the next BIG thing. That's the way it 'actually" works.
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@jwolf ·
$0.71
Resteemed! Great post
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vote details (1)
@jwolf ·
$0.71
I am proud because I resteemed it!
πŸ‘  
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vote details (1)
@mattclarke ·
$0.71
Riveting. I heard speculative attacks mentioned here recently and did some research.  
Terrifying prospect for central bankers trying to maintain a peg to a stronger fiat currency. 
Thanks for the extra detail.
We live in fascinating times.
πŸ‘  
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vote details (1)
@mero ·
$0.05
I think this will do in near futucr

Please my brother vote on my page for ur vote great honor to me
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vote details (1)
@stonecrypto · (edited)
Nice post! Crypto Currency has ARRIVED! I voted for this wonderful article
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@the.dajboz ·
Great blog! Check out my new post @the.dajboz follow me! :)
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@timelapse ·
We are living in a pivotal time - no doubt about it.  Great insight here - thank you.
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@utfull ·
$0.88
Imagine the scenario where one of the top banks is attacked by a ransom ware ...  The payment will have to be done in bitcoins or any other similar coins making banks to go to crypto exchange ..to avoid that they can surely keep some in advance :)
πŸ‘  
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vote details (1)
@victorier ·
$1.05
Oh my god, are you serious? I don't really think the government will adopt it. As we all know, the dollar is actually have to be related to gold at the very beginning, but it just being canceled by government. So, j don't think they will take a step backward to make it have to be related to something..anyway, thanks for your sharing!
πŸ‘  , , , , , , ,
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vote details (8)
@sean-king ·
$0.70
I'm not talking about the US dollar, friend.  I'm talking about countries with small, fragile currencies and their relatively weak central banks.
πŸ‘  
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