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Record bitcoin price growth and open interest in futures: analysis and outlook by serfis3

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· @serfis3 ·
Record bitcoin price growth and open interest in futures: analysis and outlook
A new record has been set. Over the past month, the bitcoin price has risen significantly and by early this week had surpassed the $57,000 mark for the first time since November 2021.

This price increase has triggered increased interest in bitcoin-based derivatives, leading to record levels of open interest in bitcoin futures. Total open interest reached more than $24 billion, surpassing previous levels set in both 2021 and 2017.

This increase in activity in the futures market has pushed total open interest to over $24 billion. Since mid-October 2023, bitcoin derivatives have seen significant growth in both open interest and total futures volume.

Open interest in derivatives markets is defined as the total number of outstanding derivative contracts, such as futures, that remain active.

This is an indicator of capital inflows into the bitcoin derivatives market. Currently, open interest in bitcoin futures has reached a record high of $24.44 billion as of February 27, 2024.

This surpassed the previous record of $23.06 billion set the day before bitcoin reached $69,000 per unit in November 2021.

CME Group leads the bitcoin derivatives market in terms of open interest in bitcoin futures with a volume of 137,550 BTC or equivalent to $7.77 billion, representing a significant 31.79% of the total market share. Binance follows in second place with 108,280 BTC or $6.13 billion and Bybit is in third place with $4.10 billion.

Okx is also a significant market participant with $2.47 billion worth of bitcoin futures.

Other major exchanges offering BTC futures include Bitget, Bingx and Deribit. In addition to the strong performance of bitcoin futures, open interest in bitcoin options is also significantly high.

While the current figure has not surpassed the open interest in BTC options recorded in December 2023, it has already surpassed the highs of April and November 2021. On Tuesday, February 27, the bitcoin price in the spot markets reached a high of $57,315 on Bitstamp.

Thus, similar to other market signals, the level of open interest in bitcoin futures is a good indicator of trader sentiment. An increase in open interest usually indicates a bullish trend, while a decrease indicates a bearish trend. Right now, a bullish trend prevails by all metrics.

Those who suggest getting ready to short bitcoin positions are probably leaning towards the theory of altcoins taking off. It should be understood that although bitcoin and altcoins are traded on the same exchanges and have similar characteristics, bitcoin is an innovation, while altcoins are more often seen as objects of gambling. The choice depends on your preferences.

Translated with DeepL.com (free version)

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