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With the drama currently "plaguing" Twitter, it really would be interesting if it actually failed completely. As while I am sure there would be something to fill its place soon enough, it would have quite an impact on the news media, because so many of the stories they push, is "backed up" with social commentary from embedded Tweets as commentary and *social proof* to back their story.  

![image.png](https://files.peakd.com/file/peakd-hive/tarazkp/23tv6W8etk3AUrj4G3mGDVtdRg7EhkiWxTA6J1YXMQELzbr1xnMTWpxbFheHyhc1HsqmU.png)

It doesn't matter even if the "internet outrage" they are headlining is coming from an account with seven followers and the Tweet has 12 likes, that is enough to drive their agenda. It doesn't matter that outrage on the internet itself is coming from a highly outspoken minority of people who have a predilection for being outraged for attention, as long as it serves the purpose to get some clicks, they don't care. 

And it would also be interesting to see who would actually go to other sites in the downfall of Twitter, because I suspect that many people who are there for the content more than posting, would be very slow to uptake a new platform. This would mean that any new platform looking to fill the void, would be quickly filled with what is essentially the worst Twitter currently has, the people who are actually there to troll for attention.

And, I am sure that there would be heaps of "startups" that would then be splashing cash around to attract celebrities in order to acquire customers, rather than having enough uses to attract celebrities. And, what this means is that there will be a wide spread of new platforms before the consolidation takes place, meaning that the celebrities that can attract people will demand a high fee, but will unlikely attract *enough people* to warrant it. 

Twitter has around 450 million active monthly users, with a high enough percentage of those being automated bots that likely generate a lot of the content volume. However, to build a new platform that has that kind of traffic is going to take a fair amount of time, and in that time, advertisers aren't going to be willing to pay a premium for access to a juvenile community, especially since they will likely have to get on several platforms simultaneously in order to get enough coverage. 

Then there are all the "communities" that use Twitter as their platform of advertising, such as the many crypto projects that actually have no community, just shillers. A lot of these groups have *nowhere else to go* other than Twitter, because people go where they believe others are. 

Obviously, this comes with opportunity for a platform like Hive, where *potentially* Hive would be able to attract some percentage of the exodus, but I think that it would only be significant if Twitter collapsed completely. However, if that did happen, Hive could potentially see hundreds of thousands of users looking to join quite quickly and, that would have ramifications, both positive and negative - but whatever happens, it would fundamentally change the platform.

*Fundamental changes.*

That is what we are seeing now in the marketplace of social platforms, where the users who have been largely a resource to mine, are starting to demand more. Not only this, the way the platforms interact with the media itself is also changing as other hardware tech is influencing the advertising model. It wouldn't surprise me if in the death of Twitter, Apple were fast to launch something for iOS users, and of course, Google might unshelve its own past attempts and give it another crack. 

The entire digital world is starting to shift in ways that mean it is is going to interact far more directly with the physical world and while Meta might think that it is through augmented reality and virtual environments, the first thing it is going to have to do is become economically viable, and that means interacting *financially,* not just at the platform level, but at the user level. 

For several years now there has been various "flirts" with this with for example, the possibility to earn vouchers and prizes that can be redeemed in store, but this is going to expand further. And then, there is the Patreon style of earning for content creators too and I think this again is going to expand further - but people are becoming increasingly wary of putting all their content eggs into the same centralized basket, so web 2.0 just isn't going to cut it, with more moving into the decentralized crypto spaces, and various direct peer to peer earning models.

With the global economy in such a mess and still very uncertain, but with many signs of "opportunity" still out there, like the easing of Covid restrictions in China driving share market values, many are going to be looking to capitalize, but also looking to secure their positions. This means that *generative* potential platforms are likely to get more focus, especially if it isn't required to be "someone special" to get monetized, or bow to the platform overloads for attention.

The next couple years of digital social communities are going to be fascinating to watch and of course, *Be a part of* here on Hive. And, we don't need 450 million active users to be of fundamentally higher value, because we don't rely on advertising for revenue. a few million will be enough to make this place pump hard and, stay hard, because once a few million are in, a few million more will follow.

Will twitter fail?
*I don't think so.*

It will be different though. 


Taraz
[ Gen1: Hive ]




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