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Since the start of Hive in Q1 of 2020, I have added about 100K HIVE to my account and am contemplating adding a bit more, considering some of my "lowball" buys have gone through over the last few days. I don't know if I am happy or sad about that - they were there to perhaps pick up a flashcrash on a fat finger slip, but it seems that the growing global obesity epidemic means that most people have fat fingers and keep selling "accidentally". 

While I am not among the largest accounts on Hive, it seems that I have broken into the top 100 and currently sit in 99th position. I think that it is a pretty good effort, although the total value hasn't moved upward, no matter how much HIVE I stack. HBD might be a crap peg, but my account value is solid. I don't mind too much at this point, though I really would like to see some upward movement against some of the other turd out there with nothing happening, though people are buying it.

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In a hypothetical world where Hive did fail, I would be deeply disappointed, but I wouldn't be bitter about it. Yes, I would lose the majority if my crypto holdings by value in that outcome, but I think that being a part of Hive has been an experience that I can't discount. 

For me, I find it quite surprising that for the last four years, I have been not only participating actively, but getting pretty deep into a cutting edge project building in an emerging industry that is setting itself up to challenge the very foundations of society, starting with the economy itself. Considering back when Bitcoin was about 30 dollars I couldn't work out how to buy some and went out drinking instead, I would say I have come a fair way.

I am not an early adopter and in general, I am not really a fan of anything at all - I don't have a favorite team or band, I don't care about political affiliations, religious ideologies or whether a beautiful girl is blonde, brunette or a redhead - yet, I like Hive *a lot.* 

There are several reasons for this and it has been a progression over time, but I think the thing that hooked me the most was that once I started creating, I couldn't stop - the creative process was addictive. Then of course, there was the feedback on my creation through comments, relationships forming and the odd vote that turned from random events to relatively steady trickles and occasionally, streams. I used to be embarrassed by the reward to some degree, but I know the work I put into it each day, so I am pretty well over it - I don't apologize for getting a salary from work or having to charge customers for my service, why should I feel bad here?

It is one of the funny things on Hive though, as due to the transparency on earnings, people tend to do a bit of digging, especially on the accounts that are larger or get rewarded. I am pretty much drama-free in this on Hive as while people have checked, what you see is what you get. I have no reason to attempt to hide my activities. 

But, part of the 99 problems is that Hive is its own little microcosm, which makes people attribute an account profile to a person's life. So, this makes me the 99th richest person in the Hive world - which would be laughable to attribute this kind of false social grandeur to me, if you spent a day in my walking world. I am the same IRL, it is just that when it comes to income generation, I will only ever be granted a *participation award* - But, at least I participate, unlike many who choose not to, while begging from others in various ways. 

There is opportunity *everywhere* yet people tend to be so spoiled for choice, that they can't focus their attention, can't commit. Instead, they chase down every lead, spreading themselves thin in the quest for more, but realizing *less.* There are a lot of talented people who fragment themselves for pennies, while they are missing out on dollars. I have committed myself to Hive and in that hypothetical scenario of complete failure, I am not sure I would ever commit myself like this anywhere ever again.

In many ways, I have taken the "get rich quick" path that many want, but most don't realize there is no such thing - at least how they visualize it. The stories of overnight success blur people's understanding. If Hive achieves even half of the potential I believe in it, I will have *got rich quick* by doing the most amount of work and using my brain as much as I possibly could in what I consider a short time frame. 

Rich is obviously relative, but if for example, I was able to pay off my house and live entirely debt free, while still being able to work a normal job, I would be comfortable. For that to happen with my current stake, it would need to hit somewhere around 3 dollars to cover the tax liabilities in Finland. If it hit 6 dollars, that would mean I would have paid off my house and have a decent-sized nest egg for retirement, with four years of hard work. This would be the same result wanted out of a typical forty year career, except in 10% of the time.

What is the hardest you would work for that kind of result? Well, pretty damn hard for me, even though it is far from guaranteed and perhaps even an unlikely outcome, given the nature of the industry. That would also mean *selling* all of my stake, which I am never planning on doing. But if it did hit that 6 dollar range, taking a chunk out of the mortgage would be possible with say 15% and then, another 15% when it hits 10 dollars later. That would still leave me a larger orca, with very low living expenses. While financial security is a myth for 99.9% of people, there is peace of mind with being able to cover living costs with a low-end job, without having to scale back lifestyle much. 

Inversely, I could take the "safe" crypto option also like many others have done, cash-out to Bitcoin and wait for it to hit the stars. My entire account doesn't even get me one Bitcoin these days. When does Bitcoin hit 600K? @edicted's doubling curve should tell us. Let's think about that for a minute. 

1 BTC currently buys 227,000 HIVE and with quite a few traders out there looking to take some gains on their Bitcoin as it continues to rise, How many Bitcoin will it take to clear the lower prices of HIVE on the exchanges? 50 Bitcoin - 500 bitcoin at these prices would demand 113,000,000 HIVE. The trading volume over the last 24 hours on Binance BTC/USDT is 80,000 Bitcoin or 2.1B dollars worth - perhaps someone will fat-finger-slip and accidentally buy 100 million HIVE with a fraction of their reserve. 500 BTC is about 13.5 million worth. 

Of course, that is not the way it works, since only Ned sells that kind of volume of tokens and that was OTC. On exchanges, it would take a lot more than 500 BTC to get 100M HIVE, as not everyone is willing to sell at 12 cents. Many, but not everyone. I wonder how scarce HIVE would become on the exchanges if not only a few large buyers came in, but they started staking instead of speculating on it. Yeah, dreams I know - but it would prop up the price considerably, making holding stake more lucrative for those who already have it. Imagine selling 10,000 HIVE at 50 cents, only for the new floor to be two dollars. Is the 5000 worth it?

10,000 Hive would attract ~2 HIVE in curation, so 4 dollars a day. that means the curation return at 2 dollar HIVE would be, 1460 if all sold at the 2 dollar level and not the spikes. Plus, the 10,000 would still be held, meaning it would have a liquid value of 20,000 dollars. 

Hmmm - this throws a bit of a spanner (wrench) in the works of my dream of selling it all for my house and a nest egg, doesn't it? I can get about 50 HIVE a day through curation, so at 2 dollars, I would have 200 dollars a day available, or 6000 dollars a month. After tax, it would be about 40K a year in curation, meaning in 5 years, I could pay off my house, while still holding the 175K HIVE - which with all things remaining equal at the 2, would be worth 350K dollars. Under these unlikely circumstances, it would take 5 years to double the value passively through curation, after 4 years of work and some capital investments. 

It is a dilemma. Sell for the sure thing, or take some risks in an attempt to double up? With that kind of potential, I think there will be a few BTC laying around after the run that is willing to take some risks and see where it leads, while playing some games and doing normal internet stuff in the meantime, even earning on some of that activity to further lower the cost average.  

I know. This is all hypothetical - after all, we are at 12 cents and it is not like HIVE can ever benefit from an industry that is starting to attract the attention of mainstream investors and the inevitable masses who will follow them into the waters.

Is it a problem? 

Taraz
[ Gen1: Hive ]

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