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Knocking out the bear by tarazkp

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hive-167922 · @tarazkp · (edited)
$47.20
Knocking out the bear
<div class="text-justify">

As normal, I have got a couple more messages from people who are a bit concerned by all the candles burning red in their portfolios the last day or two and I can feel the thinly-veiled panic building. I asked a couple of my regulars how they felt and this quote sums up the general sentiment;

>I don't get fussed too much by the dips anymore. The bear knocked that out of me.

Seasoned professionals.

![bear.jpg](https://images.hive.blog/DQma1V2mAEnAyo8EZWY57CTtxQe1omLB2bB8y6zbV19p2Ts/bear.jpg)

It can be hard of course when thinking about that gap between the value before and the value after a *dippening* event, but I no longer get that pit in my stomach like I did once upon a time. The first large dip I experienced was back in 2017 and a couple months after I first started trading. I had 1900 dollars worth of crypto in total and in a couple hours, I lost about 600 of it. I was at the summer place with my wife and rather than enjoying myself with family, the knot in my core drew all of my attention to the point I felt sick. Obviously, that isn't healthy, but at the time, my family was struggling so much financially and physically, that kind of "loss" mattered. 

Of course like anyone, I don't *want* to lose any value, but I know that it isn't a loss until it is realized at the point of sale and the dips like the last days are blips on the path up. Not only that, what has actually been lost is a few days of gains, with many of the tokens returning to  point about a week ago. Hmm - that isn't too bad really.

People have strange memories and emotional reactions. 



<center>![image.png](https://images.hive.blog/DQmZdbkir5whtggKwHuapQabt3AU5RSfeB9Cd3hPxby8g2y/image.png)</center>


The price of Bitcoin today was the same as about two weeks ago and four weeks ago and it was literally only *ten days* ago that it hit its highest ever price on record. Yet, people respond to the loss as if the world is over. Of course, "when in doubt, zoom out" comes into play too.  


<center>![image.png](https://images.hive.blog/DQmXzZj8WEGRjVe7t6gDCudQRMkwec1m7hHBuJ4zqRqxwwg/image.png)</center>

The x is the start of 2021, because looking back to the start of 2020 just looks silly.


<center>![image.png](https://images.hive.blog/DQmZZN292AHRzDvmAJzPq8gFrWWV7mJPX8VFgLTDAmxfxSc/image.png)</center>

And to the last ATH in 2017, even more ridiculous.

<center>![image.png](https://images.hive.blog/DQmbkDoBvtY8tQMcUuzU7DfU8F5uTLtMGZvcXfC6eMZAabN/image.png)</center>

But at least in the last graph, you can see why the "bear years" between then and now *knocked the fuss of dips* out of many of the holders. Do those who sold at the peaks have a different feeling at the dips?

That might be interesting to think about, because I have noticed a lot of returnees who haven't been around much the last three years coming back with little to no stake. Of course, they might have sold at the peaks, held for 18 months and bought bitcoin at the lows and be living large, but if they did  -buying a little Hive stake would hardly make a dent in their holdings. I suspect most didn't do that though, as generally going to fiat will bleed value into fiat things. 

It is because of this I think the next bear is going to be quite different, because rather than going to fiat, people will go to stables and that will hold the value in crypto, keeping the market cap high, even if it drains out of Bitcoin and Ethereum. A lot of that value will park itself as stables in farming pools, waiting for the time to get back in. The crypto scene has changed markedly in the last four years - a lot of experienced people are going to get caught out if they think it is going to be a carbon-copy of the last bears.

But, we aren't ready to *grin and bear* it yet, we are just kicking this season off and I think that the last few weeks have been the first volley into alt season, but not the largest by far. But, because people get impatient and try and chase fast large gains, they will move in and out of tokens, taking losses all over the place, looking for the "forever score" the big one. Those with a little more presence of mind, will know that in the long run, the tortoise beats the hare. 

But, it really isn't about beating anyone, is it? Though by the way people speak it is as if there is a competition between the hodlers and the sodlers, but it isn't actually the case, at least at the macro level. Hodlers are able to be so because they have created a personal environment that allows them to do so - they can *afford* to hold. While they might miss out on massive gains, they also don't bleed value into life and because they take care of their finances, they can likely keep adding over time to their position. While not exclusively so, it could very well be that the people who didn't sell could do so because they weren't desperate enough that they had to, that they had enough to pay their bills and live their life without the additional income. 

I wonder, how many people that sold in 2017/18 are better off now than they were then, and how many are in a position where not much has changed? 

I held. 

Not much has changed for me. But if I were to sell everything today, it would put me in a fundamentally better position now and several magnitudes better than back then at the peaks four years ago. While I have added to my investments through adding funds and working on Hive for all of that time, the biggest factor is that IRL, I made sure that I survived without using any of the crypto I earned. This was *a lot* of work to manage, but I am near certain that if I had sold and then tried to build back up, I wouldn't be in the position I am today, as it is much easier to get out than it is to get back into the pool. 

I want to stay in the pool and thankfully, the new crypto tools at our disposal allow for just that. I am hoping that I won't have to sell any of the principal and instead, can use what I have to invest into pools and projects for a return. I hope to be able to do this because if this bull plays out as it could, with very little of my holdings I will be able to make that fundamental change to my economic position, and not need any more of it to fund my lifestyle. After all, I want to make sure I hold enough in the future, because the next bullrun is only 4 years away. 

The next bear won't knock anything out of me.

Taraz
[ Gen1: Hive ]


</div>


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vote details (363)
@abh12345 ·
$0.28
> But, it really isn't about beating anyone, is it?

I think there are some here that want to be top dog, involved in everything and maximizing where possible.  Not too many of those though.

Defi and stable coins have definitely added something new this time around. It's still not clear how things will play out but I guess less will go to fiat and there will be plenty to keep us occupied when the bear comes knocking.
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@tarazkp · 
Top dog at what cost? 

I really hope there will be plenty to do once the bear rolls around. Some games, some pools, some projects, some entertaining people. 

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@amfb · 
Concuerdo contigo, es muy probable que haya una correccion profunda en el precio del BTC, lo cual es normal y sano para el mercado, el detalle es que la ultima correccion duro aproximadamente 3 años, lo cual para un inversionista a corto y mediano plazo es mucho tiempo. 
Si eres un inversionista a largo plazo, al precio que compres el BTC va a estar barato, pero si vas a corto plazo o mediano plazo, es un buen momento para proteger algo del capital ganado.

>I agree with you, it is very likely that there will be a deep correction in the price of BTC, which is normal and healthy for the market, the detail is that the last correction lasted approximately 3 years, which for a short and medium term investor is long time.
If you are a long-term investor, at the price you buy the BTC will be cheap, but if you go short or medium term, it is a good time to protect some of the earned capital.

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vote details (1)
@bashadow ·
$0.23
I imagine a lot of people are a bit worried about the Price of Hive right now, from over 60 cents to less than 50 cents, I see it as a normal thing. People, myself included, were excited to see that Hive survived a year. We had a pretty stable price of around 10-13 cents for a long time, then that first bitcoin spike, and our own and suddenly we were in the 20-30 cent range, that spike stabilized to about 25 cents. I think we will stabilize a few days maybe a week at the 50 cent range, then next week may get another slight boost because of the payouts and the first weeks worth of rewards like from a year ago when price jumped a little bit.

So far we have not really dipped below very many of the dips on Hive, of course this may just be perception on my part because I did not go and look at any charts.
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vote details (2)
@tarazkp · 
A week or two of flattishness (return to 55 perhaps) maybe. Before the BTC dump, I was looking for it to go to about 1600  - maybe it will skip ahead and get back on track fast for once :)

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@bhoa ·
$0.23
This post just makes me feel like what I am doing is the right thing. I really admire your persistence and resilience. I also think you do have a great grasp of how money works. 

I think the era of gold and silver is beginning to phase out and the world of crypto is about to boom even if the old guys are against it, a few of the new guys are looking into it and seeing that the mechanics behind cryptocurrency is better than any fiat currency.

This is such a great post and I sure do hope to be like you one day.


been a long time since I read your post, how is smallsteps? hope she's doing great?

I intend to learn more from your wealth of knowledge 

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vote details (2)
@tarazkp · 
Gold and Silver are still relevant I think, though not as practical as crypto. I think people still like the idea of being able to bury something in their backyard and feel like a pirate. 

Smallsteps is doing well, thanks for asking :)

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@bozz · 
Every time I start to get nervous about the price I think about how a year ago this time BTC was right around $3000 and I don't feel too badly about it anymore.  Even if we fall to support around $44k, we are still much further ahead than we were even six months ago.  With all of the development, investment, and legislation that is happening I really feel like the only way to go is up.  Perhaps slowly or maybe like a rocket!

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@empress-eremmy ·
$0.23
>because rather than going to fiat, people will go to stables and that will hold the value in crypto

I definitely agree with this, even know a few people who are waiting for a massive dip to come on board
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vote details (2)
@tarazkp ·
$0.03
It is interesting what people will consider a massive dip. A year ago, there was a massive dip, many didn't buy then either. 

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vote details (1)
@manoldonchev ·
$0.23
Meanwhile, it turns out that if I traded 100 USD worth and got the movement right by 1000 USD change in price, my gain is nigh deleted by the size of the commission fee. If only I could be my own referral...

All right, one step at a time...let's be patient this time and wait for a moment that's right-right or no moment at all.
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vote details (2)
@tarazkp · 
How is that possible?

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@manoldonchev · 
Who the what, now?  One is not possible, the other was exaggerated...

Not possible being my own referral, sadly ;) I mean the exchange would give me a portion of the fee for each trade a referred friend makes. And I am one who makes many micro trades, inducing many fees...sometimes large enough to make micro trades not that attractive. I had some free trade credits but those are now gone. 

And I would have gained about 3 k Satoshi on a sell 1000 USD above the price that  I last bought a 100 USD worth of BTC. Those 3 k are not zero... close to 1.5 % gain... rather than the full 2 % so it turns out the fee is about 25 % of the gain. Still felt more at first glance, i.e. when I wrote my obviously inaccurate statement ;)
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@natalia-irish · 
This is why you should not invest the money you need
You should make trading and storage a game you enjoy and don't put yourself under Stress so that you don't make wrong decisions

Posted Using [LeoFinance <sup>Beta</sup>](https://leofinance.io/@natalia-irish/re-tarazkp-5nqbko)
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@offgridlife · 
I can tell you now that anytime I freaked out and sold even a little bit of Bitcoin, Ethereum, BNB... the fees on those small transactions alone were ridiculous... to the point that even when I bought Them back at a much lower price I could not buy back as much as I had sold. ... so now I just hodl and buy the dips with whatever I can.... $25 , $50 worth at a time. 

Posted Using [LeoFinance <sup>Beta</sup>](https://leofinance.io/@offgridlife/re-tarazkp-5smfxg)
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@onealfa.leo ·
$0.23
![BOOM1.jpg](https://images.hive.blog/DQmNgEJdWJwnTiWBbqq4BaoUPiC7b1ZSLQfXDeW7ssJphHt/BOOM1.jpg)

![toruk_washere_new3leo.jpg](https://images.hive.blog/DQmXa1mqNP2idcwduZgUuQgm3YfmdojcHRfJDmYYnGX3Syw/toruk_washere_new3leo.jpg)

Read [how this all have started](https://leofinance.io/@onealfa/toruk-was-here) with Toruk

Posted Using [LeoFinance <sup>Beta</sup>](https://leofinance.io/@onealfa.leo/re-tarazkp-6q46jc)
👍  ,
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vote details (2)
@tarazkp · 
Thank you - very much appreciated!

Posted Using [LeoFinance <sup>Beta</sup>](https://leofinance.io/@tarazkp/re-onealfa-leo-57bodp)
👍  , ,
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vote details (3)
@optimusre · 
Your post is reblogged and upvoted by me. It is a good post. Thank you  @tarazkp
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@papilloncharity ·
$0.20
My take on it? What will be shall be!
If we are meant to hit it big time then it will be, if not then we will simply keep on HODLING until it does and then we will keep 50% in until the next big time.

You are wise to invest in other areas and I thought that by delegating I could also do that, but it doesn't seem to work too well. Not a problem, as I will just keep on trying.
As for the bears, no worries as they are a part of the game.
👍  
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vote details (1)
@beerlover · 
<div class='pull-right'>https://files.peakd.com/file/peakd-hive/beerlover/yiuU6bdf-beerlover20gives20BEER.gif<p><sup><a href='https://hive-engine.com/?p=market&t=BEER'>View or trade </a> <code>BEER</code>.</sup></p></div><center><br> <p>Hey @papilloncharity, here is a little bit of <code>BEER</code> from @manoldonchev for you. Enjoy it!</p> <p>Learn how to <a href='https://peakd.com/beer/@beerlover/what-is-proof-of-stake-with-beer'>earn <b>FREE BEER</b> each day </a> by staking your <code>BEER</code>.</p> </center><div></div>
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@manoldonchev · 
Ah, I get it...bears...game...bears...big game...hunters...

!BEER
properties (22)
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@beerlover · 
<div class='pull-right'>https://files.peakd.com/file/peakd-hive/beerlover/yiuU6bdf-beerlover20gives20BEER.gif<p><sup><a href='https://hive-engine.com/?p=market&t=BEER'>View or trade </a> <code>BEER</code>.</sup></p></div><center><br> <p>Hey @manoldonchev, here is a little bit of <code>BEER</code> from @papilloncharity for you. Enjoy it!</p> <p>Learn how to <a href='https://peakd.com/beer/@beerlover/what-is-proof-of-stake-with-beer'>earn <b>FREE BEER</b> each day </a> by staking your <code>BEER</code>.</p> </center><div></div>
properties (22)
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@papilloncharity · 
Hahaha, oh yeah and we are the Hunters!
Cheers and !BEER
properties (22)
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@ryivhnn ·
$0.68
> it really isn't about beating anyone, is it

That's all it's about for some people XD

I'm still not noticing bulls or bears even when they're rampaging around and fighting in the same room.  Don't know if that's good or not XP
👍  
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vote details (1)
@tarazkp · 
>That's all it's about for some people XD

Yes it is. I know a couple people IRL who always win, but they ar lonely and dissatisfied with their life. Sad.

You are more of a cat - disinterested in everything equally :D
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@ryivhnn · 
Cats are pretty obsessed with whatever they're obsessed with and couldn't care less about anything else so that's pretty much perfect XD
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@stefen ·
$0.23
I guess bitcoin could be stable around $50k since many big people invested when it was around $50k. I hope be long term holders. And also some people waiting for bitcoin to crash so that they have a chance to buy bitcoin to buy at less price than the current market price.
👍  ,
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vote details (2)
@tarazkp · 
I think this sounds about right. Maybe as low as 45ish.
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@tradingworld · 
I also experienced losses in 2017, I saw my entire portfolio in the red and I despaired. But with the passage of time and having studied the market, all those feelings have disappeared. You learn when to buy and when to sell. You learn when to risk and be willing to lose. I would say trading is 80% psychological and 20% technical, it is something that must be trained and to do so, you have to live the losses.

In my personal opinion I think BTC is just correcting and that is a good thing. It would be bad if it went up non-stop and never corrected, it would be practically a bubble and we don't want that. We have to be patient and stay calm.

The altcoins will be affected whenever BTC goes backwards. It practically drags them down with it on the upswings as well as the downswings.

Best regards!

Posted Using [LeoFinance <sup>Beta</sup>](https://leofinance.io/@tradingworld/re-tarazkp-6mpmkk)
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@unschool ·
$0.23
If the past tells the future, I guess bitcoin could go as low as 25k. But who knows? :)
👍  ,
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vote details (2)
@tarazkp · 
It is possible that after the full run, it falls back so far - but I don't think it will for a while. 

Posted Using [LeoFinance <sup>Beta</sup>](https://leofinance.io/@tarazkp/re-unschool-5ugyun)
properties (22)
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@unschool ·
$0.05
Yup. Agreed. I just like to watch the big picture.
👍  
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vote details (1)
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