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As some of you might be aware, the markets are down a bit from the recent highs, and HIVE is down a *fair bit* from its recent highs that saw it hit close to $0.70 at the start of the year. Some would call the current prise of $0.25 as circling the drain, but really, the sink is still half full compared to where it could be. 

> Is this a problem?



![image.png](https://files.peakd.com/file/peakd-hive/tarazkp/23uQiGVT3kHcHBQAUy3s2Ux6qceuvRs9pd1vwevsxn3DZQPdGMWHaeB6N7zJURq5PrAW7.png)


> Fuck no. 

Before any significant run on Bitcoin (which drives the market of course), there is a period of FUD that is triggered by some kind of ridiculous events. China or Korea banning Bitcoin, Mining energy, Mining being shutdown in China, SEC announcements, Corona, Celsius, Three Arrows, Terraform, FTX... The list is endless. And, this latest Trump move with tariffs and threat of war, could be the catalyst of the next run *up.* 

> But people seem to only feel *down.*

The entire global economy is on shaky ground at the moment, as traders are looking to secure or save their various positions, and corporations are panicking about where the money is going to come from. But one thing is for sure, *the money will come.* Initiatives will be put into place, bailouts will happen, and more debt on the future will be brought forward to finance the present. That debt will be justified as necessary because of "extraordinary circumstances" and people will just say "ok" because they will likely get a taste with some free money. Military expenditure is going to skyrocket. But whatever it is, there is always a large contraction of the crypto spring.

Crypto is far more resilient than people realise when they are just looking at the price, because the majority of Bitcoin *isn't* up for sale. That means that the markets are only ever playing with a percentage of the supply, which makes it look far more volatile than it actually is. While yes, ultimately the bottom is zero, these kinds of corrections are "shaking the loose hands" as they say, extracting the percentage of tokens that are liquid and people are willing to let go of. But of course, once they have been transferred into the hands of the buyers and holders, there is nothing left to drive the price down - except big news. 

> The news cycle is in full swing.

The FUD cycle is apparently on, which signals only one thing - we are in for a decent run in the "near" future. For instance, the Bitcoin low in 2020 was around $5000. It "slowly" increased to around $10,000 in October 2020, and then six months later in April 2021, hit around $63,000. This was on the back of Corona FUD. Just after the November 2022 collapse of FTX, Bitcoin dropped to $16,000, only to double 6 months later to $30,000, over double a year later, and then almost double at the recent $100K+ highs a year later again. And these weren't in true bull years. 

>Now here we are, FUDding again.

FUD is a precursor to breakouts. There are likely many reasons for this, but one of them is that the FUD is often part of larger macro events (like trade tariffs), that will mean a large amount of financial manoeuvring happens creating volatility, a lot of government manoeuvring happens which creates currency inflation, the corporations and traders do all they can to capture it for themselves, and then look to secure it in various asset classes, including crypto. Because they are buying into a deflated and throttled crypto supply market, the price is likely to move quickly and steadily for a decent amount of time until people feel comfortable, then it will explode up. Everyone will be happy, until those with significant bags who have bought the lows, scooped up the loose coins, and held - decide to take their profits. Dumping the market. 

> Rinse and repeat.

And now, with strategic reserves in crypto being announced by the US, it also means that *every other country on earth* is going to be doing the same, if they haven't been building already. There are about 55,000,000 millionaires in the world, and only 21,000,000 bitcoin - and most are unavailable to buy at current prices, and prices a fair way up from here. However, there is about 13 trillion held in foreign currency reserves globally, and some of that is also going to be pushed into crypto, or more is going to be added to get into crypto. And of course, the corporations and wealth funds aren't going to be left out of this game either, so they are chasing as well. Then there are all of the consumer buyers wanting a piece of the action.

>Once those loose hands are shook dry, it could be a very interesting back half of 2025.

There are lots of reasons to sell. for instance, my wife is worried about our financial situation because I lost my salaried work. However, I still have a trickle coming in from my business and there will likely be some support once the package money runs out. But, if I don't find work, at some point we will start bleeding value, no matter how frugal we are. I am trying to assure her that we will be okay - just not via traditional means. Still, I am not selling. Not now anyway. Now is the time to gather some more for us, not sell into those who are gathering. 

> It is a bit scary. 

We naturally favour security and certainty, not risk. But wealth development nearly always requires a "higher than natural" risk tolerance. This is an interesting area I think I will spend some time on later, but just think how we consider money as a proxy for life these days, and when we risk our money, we feel we are risking our lives - yet that is not actually the case, is it? It is similar to when our amygdala triggers a physical fear response based on conceptual threats, not just physical threats. The proxy is not the thing, but we act as if it is real.

This doesn't mean money doesn't matter, but understanding it is a concept, means that we can improve our mindset and better manage our activities around it. We needn't fear loss as deeply, which also means we don't have to be emotionally triggered as heavily. It might not "feel" good, but feelings shouldn't get in the way of the things that *need to be done.* 

>Have you done a needs analysis for yourself?

Before we act too quickly, maybe we all should.


Taraz
[ Gen1: Hive ]


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